ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[seaswing]

TWC mets keep saying "Don't let your guard down in S FL yet." So, when can we let the guard down? Tomorrow?

Probably about December 1st

[Macrocane]

La Hispaniola may be slowing down the intensification process but there's no way it may be weakening in a similar way like it would have crossed the island, just my opinion.

[wzrgirl1]

Thank you for that explanation Fire Rat!!

[FireRat]

Satellite presentation is improving again with some hot towers over the center. The proximity to DR doesn't seem to be having detrimental effect so far. Also don't see any variation from 290 degrees heading.

Yeah presentation is really improving, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some RI kick start in the next 12024hrs as it pulls away from Hispaniola.

Whoa that's a long time

J/K

[FireRat]

Thank you for that explanation Fire Rat!!

You're welcome wzrgirl1

[KWT]

Whoa that's a long time

J/K

Jeez I've had as very long day at work and now very tired, its 11.15 in the Uk afterall!

I don't think hispaniola is going to do all that much to this system, especially as its in very good upper conditions.

[UpTheCreek]

Thank you for that explanation Fire Rat!!

+1. Almost reminds me of the "doldrums".

[blazess556]

Recon is now enroute to Irene.

[FireRat]

Whoa that's a long time

J/K

Jeez I've had as very long day at work and now very tired, its 11.15 in the Uk afterall!

I don't think hispaniola is going to do all that much to this system, especially as its in very good upper conditions.

I agree with you KWT, this thing's gonna get nasty by tomorrow. It just looks textbook and its big size is keeping it from being easily affected by any hindrances such as modest land interaction.

Thank you for that explanation Fire Rat!!

+1. Almost reminds me of the "doldrums".

That's a good way to put it, it's like the doldrums for tropical cyclones...before they get moving soon after.

[clfenwi]

This evening's mission is airborne

URNT15 KNHC 222231
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 03 20110822
222100 1805N 06529W 6949 03199 //// +068 //// 166024 028 /// /// 05
222130 1805N 06531W 6940 03209 //// +075 //// 173030 032 112 012 05
222200 1805N 06533W 6931 03228 0094 +084 +075 166030 030 /// /// 03
222230 1805N 06536W 6953 03200 0086 +089 +071 169030 030 /// /// 03
222300 1805N 06537W 6940 03212 0089 +084 +064 173030 031 019 000 03
222330 1804N 06539W 6935 03214 0091 +081 +071 175029 029 014 000 03
222400 1803N 06541W 6943 03206 0093 +081 +072 177028 029 017 000 03
222430 1802N 06544W 6941 03208 0092 +078 +072 176029 030 017 000 03
222500 1802N 06546W 6942 03206 0092 +079 +071 177029 029 019 000 03
222530 1801N 06548W 6939 03211 0093 +080 +070 176029 029 022 000 03
222600 1801N 06551W 6945 03197 0091 +080 +076 179029 030 /// /// 03
222630 1800N 06553W 6941 03162 0066 +079 +072 180029 029 /// /// 03
222700 1800N 06556W 6942 02900 9793 +077 +074 175030 030 /// /// 03
222730 1800N 06558W 6941 03105 9946 +074 //// 174029 029 /// /// 05
222800 1800N 06601W 6940 03183 0038 +080 //// 177026 028 /// /// 05
222830 1800N 06604W 6939 03143 9990 +077 //// 173027 028 /// /// 05
222900 1800N 06606W 6947 03098 9946 +079 //// 172028 029 /// /// 05
222930 1800N 06609W 6939 02886 9780 +080 //// 169026 028 /// /// 05
223000 1801N 06612W 6943 02993 9850 +082 //// 168027 027 /// /// 05
223030 1801N 06614W 6944 03109 9975 +080 +080 168028 030 /// /// 03

[shaggy]

Euro goes 80 miles west of me 18z gfs just barely east of me. Gonna be a long 4-5 days of watching how the models react to the data now that they are being entered.

[SouthernBreeze]

For anyone wondering what the Military times 1800z, etc mean, heres a link to a great time converter:
http://stripersurf.com/time.html

Ok SouthernBreeze, so I am a bit dense.
Reading the chart you linked to; I live in Florida so I subtract 5 hours from the military time to get my local time.
18z = 13z or 1:00 PM my time.
Right????

I'm sorry, I've been away fixing supper..... the way I see it it 1800z is 6:00PM EST - someone please correct me if this is not correct! Military Time doesn't take daylight savings into consideration.

[tailgater]

I gonna have watch this storm close, cuz I don't see how it's gonna come very close to the mainland as forecast by most models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[blazess556]

recon is going up and down the mountains right in puerto rico.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 222241
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 04 20110822
223100 1803N 06616W 6955 03047 9840 +087 +070 170032 032 /// /// 03
223130 1804N 06618W 6942 02989 9810 +085 +075 173032 033 /// /// 03
223200 1806N 06620W 6942 02946 9806 +083 +082 176031 031 /// /// 03
223230 1808N 06622W 6941 02682 9622 +080 //// 170033 036 /// /// 05
223300 1809N 06624W 6935 02555 //// +067 //// 168034 035 /// /// 05
223330 1811N 06625W 6960 02392 9375 +081 //// 170039 041 /// /// 05
223400 1812N 06627W 6946 02398 9239 +088 //// 176040 040 /// /// 05
223430 1813N 06629W 6939 02354 9172 +095 +086 173039 040 /// /// 03
223500 1814N 06630W 6932 02708 9349 +078 //// 175037 038 /// /// 05
223530 1815N 06632W 6946 02491 //// +067 //// 171035 037 /// /// 05
223600 1815N 06634W 6937 02459 //// +067 //// 174031 033 /// /// 05
223630 1815N 06636W 6962 02401 //// +068 //// 177030 033 /// /// 05
223700 1815N 06638W 6950 02535 9330 +088 //// 192034 037 /// /// 05
223730 1815N 06640W 6937 01713 //// +082 //// 191034 036 /// /// 05
223800 1815N 06642W 6941 01777 8563 +093 //// 188032 035 /// /// 05
223830 1815N 06644W 6944 01739 8507 +097 //// 184034 036 /// /// 05
223900 1815N 06646W 6944 02613 9048 +093 //// 186033 034 /// /// 05
223930 1815N 06648W 6943 02690 9410 +090 //// 186035 036 /// /// 05
224000 1815N 06649W 6938 02676 9451 +086 //// 187036 037 /// /// 05
224030 1815N 06652W 6940 02733 9477 +081 //// 185032 035 /// /// 05

[clfenwi]

For anyone wondering what the Military times 1800z, etc mean, heres a link to a great time converter:
http://stripersurf.com/time.html

Ok SouthernBreeze, so I am a bit dense.
Reading the chart you linked to; I live in Florida so I subtract 5 hours from the military time to get my local time.
18z = 13z or 1:00 PM my time.
Right????

I'm sorry, I've been away fixing supper..... the way I see it it 1800z is 6:00PM EST - someone please correct me if this is not correct! Military Time doesn't take daylight savings into consideration.

1800 local time equals 6:00 PM local time (18-12=6). However, 1800Z does not equal 6 PM EST. To convert to EST, start by subtracting five hours. That gets you 1300 (local). Subtract 12 hours to get 1:00 PM. For Eastern Daylight time, though you only subtract four hours, so that 18Z would be 2 PM EDT.

[artist]

guys starting tomorrow I can help with recon. My father-in-law leaves in the morning.

[PTrackerLA]

Does anyone think it looks like it's tracking north of the forecast point when you overlay them on this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[SouthernBreeze]

1800 local time equals 6:00 PM local time (18-12=6). However, 1800Z does not equal 6 PM EST. To convert to EST, start by subtracting five hours. That gets you 1300 (local). Subtract 12 hours to get 1:00 PM. For Eastern Daylight time, though you only subtract four hours, so that 18Z would be 2 PM EDT.

THANK YOU!!! I'm the dense one!!

[Recurve]

For those who are interested, the Keys tourism agency put out a press release downplaying the threat of even bad weather in the Keys from Irene.

"If the current forecast track holds true, according to Jon Rizzo, warning coordinator for the Key West National Weather Service Office, no significant impacts are anticipated for the Keys."

That was even before the farther right shift at 11 a.m I didn't get the chance today to ask if those were really Rizzo's words, "no significant impact," or just a paraphrase used in the statement. If we lose power, get some flooding and a tree falls on your car, maybe that's not a significant impact. At least not enough to frighten the tourists.

They did mention that boaters should probably stay in port on Thursday.

Of course, they're not going to call an evacuation when most of the Keys are no longer in the cone, but I thought the tone was a bit lighthearted for a forecast that put a major hurricane maybe not much more than 100 miles away from the Upper Keys.

I think a lot of people still mistake the error cone for the wind field. And also aren't aware that the cone is the 67% of the mean error over five years at each forecast point. So over the last five years, sometimes the track has been completely outside the cone. And the effects can certainly stretch outside the cone.

If Irene doesn't turn until 79 west instead of 78 west, I'd say South Florida could have some nastiness. The worst damage I've seen windwise in recent years was from Mitch, which missed us completely, but flung some tornadoes our way far ahead of the right front quad. Although that seems to happen more often from tropical storms.

Just some info, I don't know what Irene is going to do, but I sure hope she doesn't come a bit west of the exact center track (sorry, Bahamas).