ATL: IRENE - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

So when is the 18Z GFDL coming out??

[CrazyC83]

That run looks like a Category 4 landfall near Beaufort, SC.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well so far I'd dare say we've seen some significant trends with the 18z models with the new data put in them. That's a bit worrisome. Let's see what the GFDL has to say. It's been intent on destroying all of Florida the last few runs. Watch it recurve this time and make us all look like fools!!!

SFT

[MGC]

I would not panic until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the models....Tomorrow morning will be the make or break day IMO....there will be some run to run shifting after that but should have a much better idea once all the data is input......MGC

[SouthFLTropics]

I would not panic until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the models....Tomorrow morning will be the make or break day IMO....there will be some run to run shifting after that but should have a much better idea once all the data is input......MGC

From what I understand about 1/3 of the data made it into the 18z models...

[alch97]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but these "drops" that you are talking about is from the gulfstream that focuses more on the enviroment ahead of the storm?

So then the next possible westward shift, if the models indicate it of course, could be at 5 am?

Therefore the chance of a south florida landfall is still in play?

[viberama]

Holy smokes. I leave for half the day and the models go haywire. Could my original forecast opinion of a first florida hit somewhere between ft pierce and st augustine be right? I was always in disagreement with the models and the weakness they showed in the ridge but I was about to give up on that. Time will tell in the next 24 hours. Be safe everyone on the east coast and if you haven't already prepared your hurricane kit, please do so.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I would not panic until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the models....Tomorrow morning will be the make or break day IMO....there will be some run to run shifting after that but should have a much better idea once all the data is input......MGC

From what I understand about 1/3 of the data made it into the 18z models...

could it be possible that when they put the other 2/3 of the data, they shift even further to the left?

[SunnyThoughts]

I would not panic until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the models....Tomorrow morning will be the make or break day IMO....there will be some run to run shifting after that but should have a much better idea once all the data is input......MGC

From what I've been reading, 1/3 made it into the 18z runs...the 0z will include all the data apparently. So later tonight and the wee hours of the morning...we should see the result of 100% of the data being ingested I suppose.

[CronkPSU]

I would not panic until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the models....Tomorrow morning will be the make or break day IMO....there will be some run to run shifting after that but should have a much better idea once all the data is input......MGC

From what I understand about 1/3 of the data made it into the 18z models...

could it be possible that when they put the other 2/3 of the data, they shift even further to the left?

very possible, maybe even likely...but we are still four days out so things can change again

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF Irene stats. Final point is off-shore southeast of Savannah, GA. Forecast point for 18Z Saturday is some 120 miles southwest of that given by the 12Z HWRF.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 22

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -68.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -70.60 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -72.50 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.60 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.00 LAT: 24.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.40 LAT: 25.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.10 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.40 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 118.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -79.60 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -80.00 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -80.20 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 30.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 31.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Now... stand by for the asploding of heads as the GFDL goes on a fishing expedition with Irene.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z HWRF Irene stats. Final point is off-shore southeast of Savannah, GA. Forecast point for 18Z Saturday is some 120 miles southwest of that given by the 12Z HWRF.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 22

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -68.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -70.60 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -72.50 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.60 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.00 LAT: 24.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.40 LAT: 25.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.10 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.40 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 118.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -79.60 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -80.00 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -80.20 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 30.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 31.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Now... stand by for the asploding of heads as the GFDL goes on a fishing expedition with Irene.

So why don't you just post the latest GFDL and put us all out of our misery...

[RevDodd]

114 hrs...


No hurricane has ever hit north of Fort Pierce, Florida with a pressure below 930mb, and none that I know of have even come close.

IIRC Hugo was 934 at landfall, and Hazel was 936. Rare company, for sure!

[MWatkins]

LOL.

Plus that takes the center within 65 miles of WPB if my distance calcs are correct. That kind of track would surely put tropical storm force winds over FL

Have to wonder now if the NHC nudges the track back west a little at 11, and if they discuss the prelim data from the drops.

MW

18Z HWRF Irene stats. Final point is off-shore southeast of Savannah, GA. Forecast point for 18Z Saturday is some 120 miles southwest of that given by the 12Z HWRF.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 22

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -68.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -70.60 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -72.50 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.60 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.00 LAT: 24.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -78.40 LAT: 25.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.10 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 119.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.40 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 118.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -79.60 LAT: 28.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -80.00 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -80.20 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 30.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 31.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Now... stand by for the asploding of heads as the GFDL goes on a fishing expedition with Irene.

[CrazyC83]

IIRC Hugo was 934 at landfall, and Hazel was 936. Rare company, for sure!

That's correct. The 1898 hurricane near Savannah, GA was 938, and Helene in 1958 just missed NC with a pressure around 935.

[Evil Jeremy]

So the HWRF, the rightmost model so far, takes a giant leap left.

Lovely.

[clfenwi]

So why don't you just post the latest GFDL and put us all out of our misery...

Hasn't started running yet for Irene.

[WeatherEmperor]

So why don't you just post the latest GFDL and put us all out of our misery...

Hasn't started running yet for Irene.

So why did you say to standby as the GFDL goes on a fishing expedition with Irene? You have to forgive me because I am a bit slow on learning all this hurricane stuff

[Vortex]

18Z DGEX...Landfall SFL


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TUS090.gif

[Jevo]

In other news.. Stacy Stewart was seen chasing Lixion Avila around the TAFB with a stick shouting "What did I tell you about yanking that cone so far East Lix.. You do it to me every time"