ATL: IRENE - Models

[Talgrissett]

What are the new developments coming out at 815 eastern standard

[SunnyThoughts]

If the Gfdl validated, what a logistical NIGHTMARE to get all those people off the coastline of Florida, and the economic impact afterwards. I don't even want to think about it. Man I hope everyone takes this seriously and follows the orders of the emergency management in their areas the next few days.

[SootyTern]

Hey, does the new dropsonde data we're all eagerly awaiting also get ingested by the Euro?

[PTPatrick]

Hope it all works out for folks down there. Hitting at that angle at least would mean a minimal surge along the space coast. Of course it it hits north of savannah surge a big issue. I just need it to move slow instead if zooming off to the north. I have an international flight out of phillie Sunday afternoon...those models putting it in the mid Atlantic Sunday afternoon were disconcerting to say the least

[Vortex]

Did I see that right? The HWRF and GFDL are through South Florida now?

Is it the data they have given the models? Geez this is going to change things I am afraid.

Interesting to note that GFDL and yes even the NAM lead the way earlier today in the shift back west.....

[Rainband]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

just have to say in dennis phillips defense. I know the man and he doesn't hype things. Not that he doesn't care he just goes with the facts not the wobbles. His reports are based on hard facts and not one model run. Just saying.

[MBismyPlayground]

Glad to see you all have this going elsewhere now. The forecasters here are going flipping crazy scaring away the tourists. I am sending everyone I know here so they will calm down.

[jdray]

Glad to see you all have this going elsewhere now. The forecasters here are going flipping crazy scaring away the tourists. I am sending everyone I know here so they will calm down.

its going somewhere between Miami and the Outer Banks.....

[lonelymike]

Calm down folks It's the 18z which are the worst model runs. If the OOZ runs show this then you're screwed.

[dmbthestone]

Wow HWRF at 918 mb and GFDL at 924 mb - forecasts of a major hurricane - perhaps CAT 4. If it hit FL, might as well write the state off the next decade.

just have to say in dennis phillips defense. I know the man and he doesn't hype things. Not that he doesn't care he just goes with the facts not the wobbles. His reports are based on hard facts and not one model run. Just saying.

He also called Charley turning in south of Tampa, a couple hours before, instead of a direct hit, sooner than any other local MET. js

[gatorcane]

Did I see that right? The HWRF and GFDL are through South Florida now?

Is it the data they have given the models? Geez this is going to change things I am afraid.

Interesting to note that GFDL and yes even the NAM lead the way earlier today in the shift back west.....

Okay, I see the HWRF made a pretty healthy west shift, now just offshore SE Florida (West Palm Beach) on its closest approach....still I was not expecting the HWRF to budge much as it is usually a right (east) outlier.

Guess its the data they are inputting into it?

If the GFDL nails this track, with the GFS and ECMWF east of Florida, wow that would be a big win for the GFDL taking down the almight Euro and GFS at once

[MWatkins]

I know it's the NOGAPS model, but FWIW it has also come west and makes a very close pass to WPB in 72 hours:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

MW

[deltadog03]

So...with the new data.....or atleast some new data...models went west....

[ronjon]

Calm down folks It's the 18z which are the worst model runs. If the OOZ runs show this then you're this will get you banned.

It's the trend my friend. I think most of us on this board realize the impact of just one set of model runs. I haven't heard any panic yet - concern yes. Most troubling is the consistency in the dynamic and global models of making this a major hurricane, regardless of it's ultimate landfall.

[Evil Jeremy]

Calm down folks It's the 18z which are the worst model runs. If the OOZ runs show this then you're screwed.

Not this time. The 18z has more new data than normal. Big data drop. This isn't a waste run.

[JPmia]

I know it's the NOGAPS model, but FWIW it has also come west and makes a very close pass to WPB in 72 hours:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

MW

Mike, what do you know about this model? This also brings it rather close to east coast of FL.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... 82212.html

[CDO62]

Thank you Chris_Fit for all your work today posting the model runs!!!! A lot of us lurkers appreciate it.

[Stephanie]

Calm down folks It's the 18z which are the worst model runs. If the OOZ runs show this then you're this will get you banned.

It's the trend my friend. I think most of us on this board realize the impact of just one set of model runs. I haven't heard any panic yet - concern yes. Most troubling is the consistency in the dynamic and global models of making this a major hurricane, regardless of it's ultimate landfall.

Exactly - but with Irene being so close to the US when she is forecasted to be major, it doesn't leave much room for error.

[JPmia]

so to recap.. tonight the 00z models will have all the weather station soundings across the US requested by NHC and all of the G-IV plane data.. and from what I understand they will be getting more weather station soundings tomorrow morning as well.

[Meteorcane]

But I am confused it just appeared to gain a significant amount of latitude, would that not undermine the starting initializations of the models.