ATL: IRENE - Models

[chris_fit]

Thank you Chris_Fit for all your work today posting the model runs!!!! A lot of us lurkers appreciate it.

YW!

[WeatherEmperor]

Forgive me if I interpret this incorrectly but I have noticed that the last few tracks issued by the NHC, Irene has gone slightly north of those forecast points each time. It appears now over at the Irene Discussion forum, Irene did more than just wobble NW. Some are saying it was a pretty big jump NW. Does that mean that the models such as GFDL, HWRF will not totally verify because I don't think they are taking this current NW motion/jog, whatever, into account. Am I correct or wrong?

[SouthFLTropics]

In other news.. Stacy Stewart was seen chasing Lixion Avila around the TAFB with a stick shouting "What did I tell you about yanking that cone so far East Lix.. You do it to me every time"

I just got a very funny mental picture in my head!

SFT

[KBBOCA]

so to recap.. tonight the 00z models will have all the weather station soundings across the US requested by NHC and all of the G-IV plane data.. and from what I understand they will be getting more weather station soundings tomorrow morning as well.

I don't ever recall seeing that kind of request for weather station soundings before. Is that pretty standard? Or is the NHC taking special measures, or is this something quite recent?

I'm a longtime reader of this board, but not always so closely following the models and still have a lot to learn about the data that gets inputed into the models.

Thanks.

[Meteorcane]

so to recap.. tonight the 00z models will have all the weather station soundings across the US requested by NHC and all of the G-IV plane data.. and from what I understand they will be getting more weather station soundings tomorrow morning as well.

I don't ever recall seeing that kind of request for weather station soundings before. Is that pretty standard? Or is the NHC taking special measures, or is this something quite recent?

I'm a longtime reader of this board, but not always so closely following the models and still have a lot to learn about the data that gets inputed into the models.

Thanks.

Pretty standard it happened during Don as well.

[JPmia]

so to recap.. tonight the 00z models will have all the weather station soundings across the US requested by NHC and all of the G-IV plane data.. and from what I understand they will be getting more weather station soundings tomorrow morning as well.

I don't ever recall seeing that kind of request for weather station soundings before. Is that pretty standard? Or is the NHC taking special measures, or is this something quite recent?

I'm a longtime reader of this board, but not always so closely following the models and still have a lot to learn about the data that gets inputed into the models.

Thanks.

Don't know how often they request this data from weather stations, but here is a link of the one's that sent up balloons:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/

[chris_fit]

Think the next big "thing" will be the 00z GFS... coming out starting at 11:30pm est

[TwisterFanatic]

But I am confused it just appeared to gain a significant amount of latitude, would that not undermine the starting initializations of the models.

It was an illusion.

[clfenwi]

so to recap.. tonight the 00z models will have all the weather station soundings across the US requested by NHC and all of the G-IV plane data.. and from what I understand they will be getting more weather station soundings tomorrow morning as well.

I don't ever recall seeing that kind of request for weather station soundings before. Is that pretty standard? Or is the NHC taking special measures, or is this something quite recent?

I'm a longtime reader of this board, but not always so closely following the models and still have a lot to learn about the data that gets inputed into the models.

Thanks.

It's pretty standard. The only thing that may/may not be special is how far north and west they went with their request for upper air observations every six hours (out to Wilmington, Ohio). As I've only noticed/paid attention when the locations in Florida are doing extra launches, that bit of it may be routine as well.

[shaggy]

The 18z TVCN stayed with a track almost identical to the GFS and the 3 main models the NHC likes to use are all still clustered fairly well. The GFDL and the HWRF are interesting runs and shows us that nobody should let their guard down. Not sure how much weight the NHC is gonna throw the GFDL since its been an outlier all along.

[Evil Jeremy]

Think the next big "thing" will be the 00z GFS... coming out starting at 11:30pm est

And the Nam before that. Will give a go look at the new synoptic situation.

[CronkPSU]

doesn't the euro still have to come out?

[Dean4Storms]

Forgive me if I interpret this incorrectly but I have noticed that the last few tracks issued by the NHC, Irene has gone slightly north of those forecast points each time. It appears now over at the Irene Discussion forum, Irene did more than just wobble NW. Some are saying it was a pretty big jump NW. Does that mean that the models such as GFDL, HWRF will not totally verify because I don't think they are taking this current NW motion/jog, whatever, into account. Am I correct or wrong?

Overall motion is still WNW, can't judge convective bursts that give an illusion of a turn.

[Weatherboy1]

It really is the next round of globals that will hopefully tell the tale here. For those of us who live in the part of South FL that "sticks out" to the east -- Palm Beach County -- even a difference of 40-80 miles would make a big difference in terms of impact. So a slight shift should be paid attention to IF the next batch of models with the upper air data from the GIV flight continues this trend.

[Portastorm]

doesn't the euro still have to come out?

12z Euro came out early this afternoon. 0z will come out early tomorrow morning.

[Bocadude85]

The 18z TVCN stayed with a track almost identical to the GFS and the 3 main models the NHC likes to use are all still clustered fairly well. The GFDL and the HWRF are interesting runs and shows us that nobody should let their guard down. Not sure how much weight the NHC is gonna throw the GFDL since its been an outlier all along.

The 18zTVCN has not updated yet.. if you look you will see that the 18zHWRF and 18Z NOGAPS tracks are not reflected on the map yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[storm4u]

2am est

doesn't the euro still have to come out?

[jlauderdal]

90hr...



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being in the bullseye this close in is not a good place to be folks especially now that we have west models coming east and east models coming back west a bit, another 18 hours of this and its time to get busy..seems like we are closing in on a solution of no more than 150 off SE florida and more likely around 100, a wobble here and there and we have issues

[bella_may]

Would be pretty bad if the models make a significant shift west into the gulf.not saying that will happen but u never know what'll happen once it leaves hispanola.

[bella_may]

Would be pretty bad if the models make a significant shift west into the gulf.not saying that will happen but u never know what'll happen once it leaves hispanola.