ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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000
URNT15 KNHC 230031
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 15 20110823
002100 1947N 07035W 6966 03163 //// +087 //// 017020 021 035 001 01
002130 1947N 07033W 6965 03162 //// +091 //// 012021 022 033 001 01
002200 1947N 07031W 6961 03171 //// +095 //// 010022 023 076 000 05
002230 1947N 07029W 6966 03154 //// +094 //// 013023 023 146 000 05
002300 1947N 07027W 6964 03155 //// +090 //// 008023 024 135 000 05
002330 1947N 07025W 6967 03162 //// +090 //// 012021 023 037 000 05
002400 1947N 07023W 6963 03163 //// +090 //// 009026 027 030 000 01
002430 1947N 07021W 6970 03152 //// +090 //// 008027 028 031 000 01
002500 1947N 07020W 6971 03154 //// +090 //// 008028 029 030 000 01
002530 1947N 07018W 6965 03159 //// +090 //// 007027 027 030 000 01
002600 1947N 07016W 6965 03161 //// +093 //// 009027 028 030 001 01
002630 1947N 07014W 6966 03157 //// +095 //// 007027 027 030 000 01
002700 1947N 07012W 6967 03156 //// +096 //// 006027 027 029 000 01
002730 1947N 07010W 6966 03154 //// +100 //// 002025 026 031 000 01
002800 1947N 07009W 6968 03151 //// +100 //// 359024 025 033 000 01
002830 1947N 07007W 6970 03147 //// +100 //// 357022 022 032 000 01
002900 1947N 07005W 6963 03157 //// +098 //// 360025 027 029 000 01
002930 1947N 07003W 6968 03149 //// +100 //// 003028 028 029 000 01
003000 1947N 07001W 6967 03148 //// +100 //// 006028 029 029 000 01
003030 1947N 06959W 6967 03145 //// +102 //// 011028 029 030 000 01
$$
;
SW quad is pretty weak. Those SFMR readings are almost certainly unrealistic.
URNT15 KNHC 230031
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 15 20110823
002100 1947N 07035W 6966 03163 //// +087 //// 017020 021 035 001 01
002130 1947N 07033W 6965 03162 //// +091 //// 012021 022 033 001 01
002200 1947N 07031W 6961 03171 //// +095 //// 010022 023 076 000 05
002230 1947N 07029W 6966 03154 //// +094 //// 013023 023 146 000 05
002300 1947N 07027W 6964 03155 //// +090 //// 008023 024 135 000 05
002330 1947N 07025W 6967 03162 //// +090 //// 012021 023 037 000 05
002400 1947N 07023W 6963 03163 //// +090 //// 009026 027 030 000 01
002430 1947N 07021W 6970 03152 //// +090 //// 008027 028 031 000 01
002500 1947N 07020W 6971 03154 //// +090 //// 008028 029 030 000 01
002530 1947N 07018W 6965 03159 //// +090 //// 007027 027 030 000 01
002600 1947N 07016W 6965 03161 //// +093 //// 009027 028 030 001 01
002630 1947N 07014W 6966 03157 //// +095 //// 007027 027 030 000 01
002700 1947N 07012W 6967 03156 //// +096 //// 006027 027 029 000 01
002730 1947N 07010W 6966 03154 //// +100 //// 002025 026 031 000 01
002800 1947N 07009W 6968 03151 //// +100 //// 359024 025 033 000 01
002830 1947N 07007W 6970 03147 //// +100 //// 357022 022 032 000 01
002900 1947N 07005W 6963 03157 //// +098 //// 360025 027 029 000 01
002930 1947N 07003W 6968 03149 //// +100 //// 003028 028 029 000 01
003000 1947N 07001W 6967 03148 //// +100 //// 006028 029 029 000 01
003030 1947N 06959W 6967 03145 //// +102 //// 011028 029 030 000 01
$$
;
SW quad is pretty weak. Those SFMR readings are almost certainly unrealistic.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
alienstorm wrote:Eye wall now visible in high resolution infared, just south of 20 N (19.7) rapid intensification is probably underway.
Can you post a link to the high res?
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- eastcoastFL
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Its pretty rare that you get the entire bahamas in a cane watch and not even a ts watch for the eastern fl coast. Especially with a storm this size. Its hard to believe that we get a massive cane 150 miles east of us and we wont feel tropical storm force winds.
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- eastcoastFL
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Now in a situation with RI does a storm tend to make its own path and continue its wnw motion or does it head poleward? Ive heard of both. I mean andrew bombed out and then plowed sw. They were on tv saying they were 99% sure he was going to make landfall in jupiter inlet and 2 hours later homestead was gone!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- CourierPR
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Re:
eastcoastFL wrote:Its pretty rare that you get the entire bahamas in a cane watch and not even a ts watch for the eastern fl coast. Especially with a storm this size. Its hard to believe that we get a massive cane 150 miles east of us and we wont feel tropical storm force winds.
Remember, that could change if Irene gets farther west before making a turn.
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- Dave
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
So should we in Miami even experience any rain from this.. I would think yeah right?
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: Re:
CourierPR wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Its pretty rare that you get the entire bahamas in a cane watch and not even a ts watch for the eastern fl coast. Especially with a storm this size. Its hard to believe that we get a massive cane 150 miles east of us and we wont feel tropical storm force winds.
Remember, that could change if Irene gets farther west before making a turn.
Well of course it could, So why wait to put up a ts watch. anyway i guess it isnt necessary because people are going crazy getting gas and food/water anyhow around here.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
eastcoastFL wrote:Now in a situation with RI does a storm tend to make its own path and continue its wnw motion or does it head poleward? Ive heard of both. I mean andrew bombed out and then plowed sw. They were on tv saying they were 99% sure he was going to make landfall in jupiter inlet and 2 hours later homestead was gone!
I'm pretty sure that it's not always the case that a stronger storm goes more poleward. As I understand it it just depends on the particular synoptic situation. In this case, it probably is true that the stronger storm goes more north.
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- Jevo
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Gah I thought we were getting a bit of a break with a NW motion... Just turned out to be a convective burst illusion.. So difficult to judge on IR at night
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Luis, another eye...how many has you been through?
I am surprized that Irene has gotten this strong being so close to the DR. Figured the dry downslope wind would hold back the cyclone.....wrong again. I agree that Irene could make it beyond Cat-3 and the hurricane may be beginning to RI as it really looks good on satellite. The folks in the Bahamas are in for a big surprize....MGC
I am surprized that Irene has gotten this strong being so close to the DR. Figured the dry downslope wind would hold back the cyclone.....wrong again. I agree that Irene could make it beyond Cat-3 and the hurricane may be beginning to RI as it really looks good on satellite. The folks in the Bahamas are in for a big surprize....MGC
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000
URNT15 KNHC 230041
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 16 20110823
003100 1947N 06957W 6967 03145 //// +098 //// 017029 030 030 000 01
003130 1947N 06955W 6965 03151 //// +096 //// 016029 029 033 000 01
003200 1947N 06954W 6970 03142 //// +098 //// 017029 030 034 000 01
003230 1947N 06952W 6966 03145 //// +094 //// 015028 029 032 000 01
003300 1947N 06950W 6966 03144 //// +095 //// 020029 030 032 000 01
003330 1947N 06948W 6966 03141 //// +095 //// 026028 028 032 000 01
003400 1947N 06947W 6969 03137 //// +095 //// 023026 026 032 000 01
003430 1947N 06945W 6967 03141 //// +097 //// 027026 026 031 001 01
003500 1947N 06943W 6967 03138 //// +097 //// 027027 029 034 000 01
003530 1947N 06941W 6971 03133 //// +100 //// 021025 026 035 000 01
003600 1947N 06939W 6964 03137 //// +098 //// 019027 028 038 000 01
003630 1947N 06938W 6969 03129 //// +094 //// 019029 029 039 000 01
003700 1947N 06936W 6970 03128 //// +097 //// 016032 033 039 002 01
003730 1947N 06934W 6967 03126 //// +095 //// 016032 034 039 000 01
003800 1947N 06932W 6970 03119 //// +089 //// 020043 045 039 000 01
003830 1947N 06930W 6972 03114 //// +102 //// 016042 042 038 001 01
003900 1947N 06929W 6966 03117 //// +103 //// 015043 043 037 001 01
003930 1947N 06927W 6967 03114 //// +108 //// 010042 043 042 000 01
004000 1947N 06925W 6971 03104 //// +116 //// 004041 041 043 000 05
004030 1947N 06923W 6962 03113 //// +116 //// 358038 039 046 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 230041
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 16 20110823
003100 1947N 06957W 6967 03145 //// +098 //// 017029 030 030 000 01
003130 1947N 06955W 6965 03151 //// +096 //// 016029 029 033 000 01
003200 1947N 06954W 6970 03142 //// +098 //// 017029 030 034 000 01
003230 1947N 06952W 6966 03145 //// +094 //// 015028 029 032 000 01
003300 1947N 06950W 6966 03144 //// +095 //// 020029 030 032 000 01
003330 1947N 06948W 6966 03141 //// +095 //// 026028 028 032 000 01
003400 1947N 06947W 6969 03137 //// +095 //// 023026 026 032 000 01
003430 1947N 06945W 6967 03141 //// +097 //// 027026 026 031 001 01
003500 1947N 06943W 6967 03138 //// +097 //// 027027 029 034 000 01
003530 1947N 06941W 6971 03133 //// +100 //// 021025 026 035 000 01
003600 1947N 06939W 6964 03137 //// +098 //// 019027 028 038 000 01
003630 1947N 06938W 6969 03129 //// +094 //// 019029 029 039 000 01
003700 1947N 06936W 6970 03128 //// +097 //// 016032 033 039 002 01
003730 1947N 06934W 6967 03126 //// +095 //// 016032 034 039 000 01
003800 1947N 06932W 6970 03119 //// +089 //// 020043 045 039 000 01
003830 1947N 06930W 6972 03114 //// +102 //// 016042 042 038 001 01
003900 1947N 06929W 6966 03117 //// +103 //// 015043 043 037 001 01
003930 1947N 06927W 6967 03114 //// +108 //// 010042 043 042 000 01
004000 1947N 06925W 6971 03104 //// +116 //// 004041 041 043 000 05
004030 1947N 06923W 6962 03113 //// +116 //// 358038 039 046 000 01
$$
;
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- gatorcane
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No reason this cannot be a CAT 5 approaching the SE Bahamas.
Thoughts and prayers go out to them as this looks to be the real deal heading their way.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 22, 2011 7:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- ObsessedMiami
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Re:
eastcoastFL wrote:Its pretty rare that you get the entire bahamas in a cane watch and not even a ts watch for the eastern fl coast. Especially with a storm this size. Its hard to believe that we get a massive cane 150 miles east of us and we wont feel tropical storm force winds.
That could change at 5 am if the models keep trending westward overnight. At least a TS warning
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- Jevo
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Re: Re:
Patrick99 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Now in a situation with RI does a storm tend to make its own path and continue its wnw motion or does it head poleward? Ive heard of both. I mean andrew bombed out and then plowed sw. They were on tv saying they were 99% sure he was going to make landfall in jupiter inlet and 2 hours later homestead was gone!
I'm pretty sure that it's not always the case that a stronger storm goes more poleward. As I understand it it just depends on the particular synoptic situation. In this case, it probably is true that the stronger storm goes more north.
Maybe not in this case... some interesting data coming out in the model thread.. the GFS, NAM, HRWF and GFDL are all building in a stonger than originally forecasted ridge with 1/3 of the G-IV data in the 18z run... I think 0z is going to ge the game changer..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
tgenius wrote:So should we in Miami even experience any rain from this.. I would think yeah right?
In my past experience, with storms churning by to the east.......we tend to really get ripped off with rain. We get a strong, dry, hot NW wind flow that I'm not looking forward to. We've had some really hot days with hurricanes passing by to the east. Pretty sure we'd be in this kind of rip-off zone, unless it really comes close.
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- Dave
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- eastcoastFL
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The weather channel was showing that yellow line that shows the movement of the storm since its birth and the last few hours went west north west then dipped sw a bit at the end.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
eastcoastFL wrote:Its pretty rare that you get the entire bahamas in a cane watch and not even a ts watch for the eastern fl coast. Especially with a storm this size. Its hard to believe that we get a massive cane 150 miles east of us and we wont feel tropical storm force winds.
the twc just showed a graphic with the storm and observations from the north coast of the D.R. the hurricane is very close to that coast and yet the winds there were 10mph or less. now, obviously the structure of the cyclone can change but that just gives you an idea of how quickly the winds can drop off as you move away from the center on the weaker side of the storm. and i think the storm is quite a bit closer to the north coast of the D.R. right now than it is expected to be from south florida based on the current track. just something to consider as this unfolds...
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