ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

If you can stay up late enough look at what the 00z runs do those will be significant.

[bigdan35]

Looking pretty good tonight.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230211
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 25 20110823
020100 2113N 07025W 6971 03175 //// +090 //// 068045 045 033 000 01
020130 2112N 07023W 6967 03181 //// +092 //// 066043 044 037 000 01
020200 2111N 07022W 6970 03174 //// +090 //// 067043 044 040 000 01
020230 2110N 07021W 6966 03178 //// +090 //// 067043 044 039 000 01
020300 2108N 07020W 6966 03180 //// +086 //// 066042 043 041 000 01
020330 2107N 07018W 6967 03174 //// +087 //// 066040 040 040 000 01
020400 2106N 07017W 6970 03173 //// +084 //// 066040 040 038 000 01
020430 2105N 07016W 6967 03171 //// +085 //// 066040 040 041 000 01
020500 2104N 07015W 6967 03171 //// +085 //// 065039 039 042 000 01
020530 2103N 07013W 6967 03169 //// +090 //// 065038 038 043 000 01
020600 2101N 07012W 6969 03167 //// +090 //// 064038 038 045 000 01
020630 2100N 07011W 6966 03172 //// +092 //// 065036 037 046 000 01
020700 2059N 07010W 6966 03169 //// +094 //// 063033 034 044 000 01
020730 2058N 07008W 6967 03168 //// +095 //// 064032 033 045 000 05
020800 2057N 07007W 6967 03165 //// +099 //// 066030 031 046 000 01
020830 2056N 07006W 6969 03164 //// +100 //// 070026 027 046 000 01
020900 2054N 07004W 6967 03164 //// +100 //// 069024 024 046 000 01
020930 2053N 07003W 6968 03162 //// +103 //// 068024 025 043 000 01
021000 2052N 07002W 6966 03164 //// +108 //// 073024 025 044 000 01
021030 2051N 07001W 6968 03161 //// +110 //// 073023 024 044 000 01
$$
;

[SNOW_JOKE]

Spare a thought for the 330,000 in the Bahamas currently. Who no doubt are watching the models by the hour, A CAT4/5 is the last thing these local people need, and any storm surge nevermind wind gusts will no doubt level major population centers especially Nassau which itself is only 5m asl
Some major resorts & hotels in this part of the world that could suffer significant losses and not only financially.

[Sanibel]

There were line clouds with some pretty thunderheads castellated out of them at sunset here. You get those long flat-bottomed liner clouds when there's tropical activity in the region.

Went shopping and when I came back Irene was 100mph! There was one guy filling 4 large fuel containers at the gas pump. Another guy had like 10 cases of water at the check-out. But, like usual, there weren't many people rushing out to buy supplies.

[HURAKAN]

[stormhunter7]

so thats puts the second eyewall between 35nm and 55nm?

[Bocadude85]

There were line clouds with some pretty thunderheads castellated out of them at sunset here. You get those long flat-bottomed liner clouds when there's tropical activity in the region.

Went shopping and when I came back Irene was 100mph! There was one guy filling 4 large fuel containers at the gas pump. Another guy had like 10 cases of water at the check-out. But, like usual, there weren't many people rushing out to buy supplies.

No water left at my local grocery store..

[3090]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

If you can stay up late enough look at what the 00z runs do those will be significant.

What are you infering? Do you know something that is going to be revealed with the next group of model runs, that will be more troublesome?

[GTStorm]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

models moved east til the 6PMish runs came through, they had the new data in and moved west

GFS moved a little left, HWRF moved a decent amount left, GFDL moved...right? BAM suite moved right? seems like they were all over the place.

[Gustywind]

Dangerous CAT 2 hurricane IRENE!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230221
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 26 20110823
021100 2050N 06959W 6971 03158 //// +107 //// 068024 025 044 000 01
021130 2048N 06958W 6965 03167 //// +105 //// 071025 026 041 000 01
021200 2047N 06957W 6970 03157 //// +107 //// 077026 026 041 000 01
021230 2046N 06955W 6967 03161 //// +112 //// 080026 026 040 000 01
021300 2045N 06954W 6967 03158 //// +116 //// 081028 030 041 000 01
021330 2044N 06953W 6967 03161 //// +115 //// 079032 033 043 000 01
021400 2043N 06952W 6967 03155 //// +111 //// 076034 035 045 000 01
021430 2041N 06950W 6968 03154 //// +109 //// 078036 036 044 000 01
021500 2040N 06949W 6967 03154 //// +108 //// 075039 040 044 000 01
021530 2039N 06948W 6968 03153 //// +103 //// 072042 044 046 000 01
021600 2038N 06947W 6970 03148 //// +101 //// 070049 051 045 000 01
021630 2037N 06946W 6964 03153 //// +096 //// 068049 050 045 000 01
021700 2036N 06944W 6966 03150 //// +094 //// 066052 053 048 000 01
021730 2035N 06943W 6965 03153 //// +094 //// 065052 054 048 000 05
021800 2033N 06942W 6968 03147 //// +104 //// 069045 045 049 000 05
021830 2032N 06941W 6968 03140 //// +100 //// 072046 047 048 000 05
021900 2031N 06940W 6964 03145 //// +098 //// 074044 045 049 000 05
021930 2030N 06939W 6967 03140 //// +108 //// 075040 041 051 000 05
022000 2028N 06938W 6969 03138 //// +112 //// 075038 038 048 000 05
022030 2027N 06937W 6968 03139 //// +109 //// 073044 048 050 003 01
$$
;

[KBBOCA]

I decided to turn on the weather channel when I read in earlier posts that Brian Norcross & Jim Cantore were talking about Irene.

I have to say, after having written off TWC for years, I'm pretty impressed. Norcross, Cantore & Knabb make a pretty formidable team and they're providing some good coverage, talking about the recon missions and how they affect the track forecast.

Good to see that there are some knowledgeable experts providing this kind of coverage when so many people really need it with this storm.

[tolakram]

Be careful calling for a double eyewall in a strengthening system. That could simply be higher gusts in the bands around the center of a hurricane that does not yet have a complete eyewall. ERC tend to show up in steady state systems, regardless of strength. A developing system or a strengthening system is going to have all kinds of wind anomalies IMO. I think this is best suited for the main discussion thread and maybe a pro met can comment.

[3090]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

models moved east til the 6PMish runs came through, they had the new data in and moved west

GFS moved a little left, HWRF moved a decent amount left, GFDL moved...right? BAM suite moved right? seems like they were all over the place.

IF, and I mean a BIG IF, some of the more relied on models are trending left, even at the slightest, I would become very concerned at this point. Becasue it means they are seeing the ridge building back, before this thing can get moving up and out to the north any great distance. Tha is always my biggest fear with these size storms. They miss a path and build the high in over them and then get their momentum going more west; like Betsy, Andrew and Katrina, to name a few. A bit antsy for the Florida folks, IF some of the models are just beginning to trend west a bit. Too close for comfort at this point.

[ozonepete]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

They always swing back and forth on a predicted path, especially further out in time. The closer you are in time, the less they move back and forth and they start focusing in on a narrower path. That is why the cone is so wide the further out you go. Over the last few days they have trended from a path right up the middle of Florida to one well east of Florida that will landfall in the Carolinas. The major model runs are at 8AM and 8PM eastern time but we don't see the output until a few hours later: usually we see the 8AM output by 11 or 11:30AM and the 8PM output around 11 or 11:30PM. In tonight's 8PM model runs, which we'll see around 11PM tonight, they have ingested a whole new set of "better informed" data (especially data the RECON got this afternoon) and we will get a better fix on how close the track will come to Florida or the Carolinas, i.e.the consensus of where this will go may move a little west or a little east or keep the same track. But it will be more reliable because we are getting closer in time to when it will approach the U.S.

[StarmanHDB]

There were line clouds with some pretty thunderheads castellated out of them at sunset here. You get those long flat-bottomed liner clouds when there's tropical activity in the region.

Can't wait to see the pretty red sky at sunset for the next couple of nights.

[Sanibel]

Katrina was also a hurricane that didn't show any eye even when it was over 100mph...

[HURAKAN]

[eastcoastFL]

I'm hearing that the models are moving east, and then I hear they are leaning west a bit. Please tell me which is correct. Thank you. 8-

models moved east til the 6PMish runs came through, they had the new data in and moved west

GFS moved a little left, HWRF moved a decent amount left, GFDL moved...right? BAM suite moved right? seems like they were all over the place.

18Z gfdl had it making a landfall in florida