ATL: IRENE - Models

[jes]

I don't understand why so many people are talking about the GFDL and Florida. The GFDL has been to the West of the models the entire time. It was the model in the Gulf for so long. I haven't noticed that it has moved TO Florida ---it's always been in the Gulf or Florida. What am I missing????

[Vortex]

H+66 just west of andros generally heading towards sfl or map parrallel the coast after further review...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[ronjon]

18z NOAA HFIP 3 Km HWRF - Landfall at Vero Beach.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[stormreader]

I don't understand why so many people are talking about the GFDL and Florida. The GFDL has been to the West of the models the entire time. It was the model in the Gulf for so long. I haven't noticed that it has moved TO Florida ---it's always been in the Gulf or Florida. What am I missing????

You're right. It has been the western outlier. Last night it was in the Gulf. Had me looking pretty hard at it too.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite a few models shifting west, going to be interesting later on tonight into the morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

So does the NAM with th G-IV data show a stronger/weaker ridge/through?

[SeminoleWind]

18z NOAA FHIP 3 Km HWRF - Landfall at Vero Beach.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

never heard of that model before i don't recall is that a variant of the HWRF?

[mf_dolphin]

I don't understand why so many people are talking about the GFDL and Florida. The GFDL has been to the West of the models the entire time. It was the model in the Gulf for so long. I haven't noticed that it has moved TO Florida ---it's always been in the Gulf or Florida. What am I missing????

The GFDL is getting more attention since at least some of the eastern models have come back west in their 1800z runs. The 00z runs are going to be real interesting since they'll have the GIV upper-air data.

[bucman1]

what would bridging ridges do to the track?

[SouthDadeFish]

75 hour 00Z NAM:



East of S FL, but still very close.

[Vortex]

H+72 east of SFL.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[HurricaneWarning92]

what would bridging ridges do to the track?

they would not allow the trough to pull the storm poleward. Thus, heading west to wnw.

[stormreader]

what would bridging ridges do to the track?

Push the storm further west than most of the models are now indicating.

[tgenius]

So if this all pans out.. I deff could see watches going up tomm. at the 5am for Miami. :/

[stormreader]

H+72 east of SFL.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

Damn, that's just way too close for comfort.

[Evil Jeremy]

So an east shift of irene. Let's see if it trends to the gfs in about an hour.

[SouthDadeFish]

After lookign at the 500mb level of the last few runs from the the NAM and GFS, I think the 00Z model runs will show a track very similar to the 00Z NAM, with the center approaching Grand Bahama. This is just my opinion and not a professional forecast. Beyond this time much I'm unsure.

[SapphireSea]

what would bridging ridges do to the track?

they would not allow the trough to pull the storm poleward. Thus, heading west to wnw.

I see a pretty deep trough. I believe that 'bridged' ridge is an anamoly since the ridge axis of the "Death Ridge" is farther west here. That storm is heading NNW - N from there.

[SouthDadeFish]

So an east shift of irene. Let's see if it trends to the gfs in about an hour.

An east shift for the NAM, but it has come into consensus with the TVCN. Then again it is just the NAM

[stormreader]

So if this all pans out.. I deff could see watches going up tomm. at the 5am for Miami. :/

In my humble opinion some kind of watches will go up. Even if the storm does stay offshore, it looks to be way too close for comfort (and at this point it is definitely not a given that it will stay offshore.