ATL: IRENE - Models

[smw1981]

So an east shift of irene. Let's see if it trends to the gfs in about an hour.

Where did you get that? Am I missing something?

[Bocadude85]

After lookign at the 500mb level of the last few runs from the the NAM and GFS, I think the 00Z model runs will show a track very similar to the 00Z NAM, with the center approaching Grand Bahama. This is just my opinion and not a professional forecast. Beyond this time much I'm unsure.

I agree I am thinking the center may track right over Grand Bahama or shoot the gap between Florida and Grand Bahama.

[stormreader]

So an east shift of irene. Let's see if it trends to the gfs in about an hour.

Maybe so, but seems like its splitting hairs Jeremy. As great as these models are we have to keep the forecast error in mind. I don't live in Fl, but that seems way too close for my taste.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like by 81h the trough is already E of Irene leaving the storm near Melbourne

[Vortex]

18z NOAA HFIP 3 Km HWRF - Landfall at Vero Beach.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

Remember guys, they dont move on a straight line. they wobble around, and that make a difference on its final landfall.

[SeminoleWind]

From the 11PM forecast discussion

"OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE."

[chris_fit]

From the 11PM forecast discussion

"OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE."

t-20 minutes or so on GFS... wonder what it will bring

[Blown Away]

I think the 00z TVCN had the dropsound data and kept Irene well offshore SFL.

[SapphireSea]

From the 11PM forecast discussion

"OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE."

t-20 minutes or so on GFS... wonder what it will bring

GFS is going to shift eastward slightly. Looking at surface features and implied confidence from the 11PM NHC discussion suggests that the ridging is currently much weaker than was forecast by previous runs, and weaker than they have been initializing it.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the 00z TVCN had the dropsound data and kept Irene well offshore SFL.

The 00Z TVCN is a consensus of the 18Z models I believe so I don't think so.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the 00z TVCN had the dropsound data and kept Irene well offshore SFL.

TCVN with dropsound data won't be out till 3is. The dropsound model suite I only starting.

[GTStorm]

From the 11PM forecast discussion

"OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE."

t-20 minutes or so on GFS... wonder what it will bring

GFS is going to shift eastward slightly. Looking at surface features and implied confidence from the 11PM NHC discussion suggests that the ridging is currently much weaker than was forecast by previous runs, and weaker than they have been initializing it.

agree! I feel as if they expect the dropsonde data to further confirm their track.

[SeminoleWind]

i believe and i could be wrong but the TCVN is not really a model per say but a average if you will of all the models, but like i said i could be wrong on that

[RL3AO]

0z TCVN is a consensus of the T+6 forecasts of the 18z runs which has none of the G-IV data in it.

[RL3AO]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0315Z TUE AUG 23 2011

THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. RAWINSONDE COVERAGE FOR
MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WAS EXCELLENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND
INCLUDED 36 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

[clfenwi]

I think the 00z TVCN had the dropsound data and kept Irene well offshore SFL.

The 00Z TVCN is a consensus of the 18Z models I believe so I don't think so.

The G-IV and WC-130 dropsonde missions began early enough that some of the observations (16 to be exact) did get into the 18Z models. An additional 36 made it into the 00Z GFS.

[jpigott]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0315Z TUE AUG 23 2011

THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. RAWINSONDE COVERAGE FOR
MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WAS EXCELLENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND
INCLUDED 36 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

Looks like this is going to be a pretty crucial run for the GFS

[Steve H.]

Which really means squat, since it's composite of the models, many of which can be in error.

[Bruton]

Can anybody tell me when the 00z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF come out?