ATL: IRENE - Models

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chris_fit
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#4121 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:31 pm

Here we go... GFS should be rolling in any minute...
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#4122 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:32 pm

GFS is rolling. Here we go.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4123 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:32 pm

Bruton wrote:Can anybody tell me when the 00z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF come out?



00Z GFS is coming out now. 00Z HWRF starts rolling out about 1/1.5 hour from now, with the GFDL about 0.5 hour after that.
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#4124 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:33 pm

This feels like the judge is going to give the Casey Anthony verdict again!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4125 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:33 pm

drum roll for likely one of the more critical model runs of Hurricane Season 2011 8-)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4126 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:33 pm

RL3AO wrote:0z TCVN is a consensus of the T+6 forecasts of the 18z runs which has none of the G-IV data in it.


Thanks, that has been puzzling me!! :double: How did you verify that?

I'm thinking the NHC could have shifted the track more E with many models E of the track. Do you think they are waiting for the 00z models before making the NE turn???
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#4127 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:35 pm

00z GFS - Init.

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#4128 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:38 pm

+6hrs

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#4129 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:38 pm

+12hrs

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#4130 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:40 pm

+18hrs .. looking like it wants to go more N that previous

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#4131 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:43 pm

+24 hours... nice break in that ridge...


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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4132 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:43 pm

Agreed. Looks NNW ish so far
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4133 Postby Tampa_God » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:45 pm

Kind of looks stationary....
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4134 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:45 pm

Unless something changes this looks to miss FL well to the east, maybe even east of most of the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4135 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:45 pm

wjs3 wrote:Agreed. Looks NNW ish so far


it's still moving WNW, as you can see the ridge is still to NE of Irene pushing her WNW. The NAM showed the same break. I'm thinking it will fill in soon. The second trough is what kicks it north.
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#4136 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:46 pm

It does look much slower doesn't it?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4137 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:46 pm

24 hours, not moving very fast?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4138 Postby Clint_TX » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:46 pm

jpigott wrote:Unless something changes this looks to miss FL well to the east, maybe even east of most of the Bahamas.


No way it's a fish though...I was hoping for no US Cont landfall
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#4139 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:47 pm

+30hrs... in 30 hours, still hasn't completely cleared Hispaniola.

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#4140 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:47 pm

if it doesnt move fast isnt that worse for Florida?
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