ATL: IRENE - Models

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chris_fit
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#4201 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:11 pm

+90hrs


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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4202 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 pm

This run very close to 18Z, I guess that upper level data was not a difference maker.
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Re: Re:

#4203 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 pm

Bruton wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:To be honest if the 00Z GFS verifies S FL would see very little effects from Irene. Lets see what she does to the Carolinas.


That would piss me off. All this and to get no effect?! No, I want at least some nice winds and rain in Miami.


You are mad that a hurricane is missing you? I would be thankful that I don't have to put up with the threats.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4204 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 pm

looks like it's moving a bit E of north at t +90 (watching NCEP site). Clip KOBX??? Wow.
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#4205 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 pm

trough is lifting out.... leaving Irene behind?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4206 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:This run very close to 18Z, I guess that upper level data was not a difference maker.


GFS underdoes ridges. I think the main entertainment of the evening is what the EURO does with the new data. The GFS is just a warm up act IMO. Not discounting it, just saying the EURO should be interesting.
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#4207 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:13 pm

96hrs...

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4208 Postby Clint_TX » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:13 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:We're starting to get consistancy with the GFS, I would be highly vigilant from Charleston to Chatham and anywhere in between


Indeed, Irene could be the next great one for the East Coast.

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The max possible population in the US could be touched with this track that's unfolding, scary
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Re: Re:

#4209 Postby artist » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:To be honest if the 00Z GFS verifies S FL would see very little effects from Irene. Lets see what she does to the Carolinas.


Regardless on the current nhc track sfl isn't going to see much then breezy rainy weather. TS force winds should stay offshore over the coastal waters.

TS winds go out 185 miles. That center is not 185 miles away. And winds of 123 mph were found in the NW quad today. You also have toremember that the center pont is just that. Any wobble further west could make a huge impact. It is just better to be safe than sorry. I no, I do not want this storm. These are just some things to consider.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4210 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:15 pm

Clint_TX wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:We're starting to get consistancy with the GFS, I would be highly vigilant from Charleston to Chatham and anywhere in between


Indeed, Irene could be the next great one for the East Coast.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


The max possible population in the US could be touched with this track that's unfolding, scary


Not unheard of for a storm traveling that close to the coast to get "pulled in" due to friction.
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#4211 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:15 pm

+102

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4212 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 pm

I'm floored that the major change in the models seems to be that trof, not something that was "wrong" that the g-IV data uncovered. Would have expected something early in the models, and offshore to change with G -IV data!
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#4213 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 pm

I doubt the Euro shows anything different. We're getting into the time frame where models get to be pretty accurate. I wouldn't expect to see much of a change in 72 hours. I'm not saying to let down your guard in Florida, but I feel much more relieved than I did earlier today.
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#4214 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 pm

108


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#4215 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:16 pm

This run has it moving VERY slow...
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#4216 Postby artist » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 pm

how does this run compare to its last run? Any further east this time? Or about the same? Thanks!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4217 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 pm

Irene looks a little stuck.

Still on tap this evening . . . HMRF, GDFL and King Euro
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Re: Re:

#4218 Postby Bruton » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Bruton wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:To be honest if the 00Z GFS verifies S FL would see very little effects from Irene. Lets see what she does to the Carolinas.


That would piss me off. All this and to get no effect?! No, I want at least some nice winds and rain in Miami.


You are mad that a hurricane is missing you? I would be thankful that I don't have to put up with the threats.


I want TS conditions. And I'd be mad if it were to stay so far that this could not happen.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4219 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 pm

111 south of KOBX
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#4220 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 pm

114
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