ATL: IRENE - Models
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Jevo
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+96 Euro....... Wow
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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+120 Euro
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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maxintensity
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Jevo
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+144 Euro
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Huckster
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I know all the threads regarding Irene are extremely busy right now. I am not sure where to post this, or if it as even been posted yet, and if this is not the right one for this, I apologize. I would like to bring up the 1821 hurricane and the little information I've found about it. If what I am reading about the 1821 storm is true and its track is reasonably accurate, then Irene could be a storm that joins a really bad club. Hopefully, this may be of some help to someone in Irene's path.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane
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Jevo
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+168 Euro takes it out of the forecast range up in the North Central Atl..
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Before all is said and done Irene could very well miss everything and go out to sea. Seems like every 24hrs or so the models keep taking her to the east little by little. Remember it was just a week ago she was headed to Houston and then New Orleans. By this time tomorrow the track could shift another 100 miles or so to the east if the ridging stays just a little weaker. Amazing to think about that last week most if not all were certain this was destined to be a south florida then gulf cane or scoot under florida then pummel the gulf coast with cat 4 intensity. Dont really think there was anybody that said this could end up brushing the outer banks then threatening the NE US.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Before all is said and done Irene could very well miss everything and go out to sea. Seems like every 24hrs or so the models keep taking her to the east little by little. Remember it was just a week ago she was headed to Houston and then New Orleans. By this time tomorrow the track could shift another 100 miles or so to the east if the ridging stays just a little weaker. Amazing to think about that last week most if not all were certain this was destined to be a south florida then gulf cane or scoot under florida then pummel the gulf coast with cat 4 intensity. Dont really think there was anybody that said this could end up brushing the outer banks then threatening the NE US.
True and its funny that this was the map on the front page of weather.com Saturday as well as on their FB. Not picking on The Weather Channel because its what the models consistently showed so what else were they to say.
Even tonight, around 10pm they made this post I guess since earlier the GFDL was still showing Florida.
The Weather Channel and weather.com
See what people in Miami are saying about the weather and the approaching Hurricane Irene on Social Weather.
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wzrgirl1
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Curious to see when this is all said and done as to which models performed the best with Irene from 10 days ago as they pertain to the sypnotics and strength.
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NC George
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Before all is said and done Irene could very well miss everything and go out to sea. Seems like every 24hrs or so the models keep taking her to the east little by little. Remember it was just a week ago she was headed to Houston and then New Orleans. By this time tomorrow the track could shift another 100 miles or so to the east if the ridging stays just a little weaker. Amazing to think about that last week most if not all were certain this was destined to be a south florida then gulf cane or scoot under florida then pummel the gulf coast with cat 4 intensity. Dont really think there was anybody that said this could end up brushing the outer banks then threatening the NE US.
A Double Cape (Hatteras and Cod) storm is what I've been thinking the past couple of days.
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Bertha '96, Fran '96, Bonnie '98, Dennis '99, Floyd '99 
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????
Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
It is.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/06zgfs.html
500mb Heights/PMSL Atlantic Tropical are the first plots done, the remaining fill in about 4 or 5 minutes behind. Right now it's a tad, just a tad, NE of the 00 run.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/06zgfs.html
500mb Heights/PMSL Atlantic Tropical are the first plots done, the remaining fill in about 4 or 5 minutes behind. Right now it's a tad, just a tad, NE of the 00 run.
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M a r k
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Meso
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Definitely quite a bit right on this 06z run!
At 96 hours it appears as though it may just brush NC.
At 96 hours it appears as though it may just brush NC.
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Wow thats a powerful hit for the NE states, granted the models maybe overdoing it a little but a strong 3/4 near Carolina will probably translate to a solid 1/2 further north if it keeps on a fast NNE track.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
FIM is showing highest latent-heat flux at about the time when Irene is very near Grand Bahama Island.
I suspect Irene will reach max intensity a short time after that.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011082200&plotName=lhtfl_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1
I suspect Irene will reach max intensity a short time after that.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011082200&plotName=lhtfl_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1
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