ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Wow! Look at that outflow on the West side, perfect.

I'm afraid of what I will wake up to.

[Sanibel]

GFDL now in line with other models. Misses Florida east and goes into South Carolina.


Less stress here now on Florida west coast.

[HurricaneQueen]

GFDL now in line with other models. Misses Florida east and goes into South Carolina.


Less stress here now on Florida west coast.

Om that note, I am finally going to get some sleep after being up most of the last two nights. A special thanks to WxGuy1 for all of his help, support and knowledge tonight and always-an excellent teacher.

[wzrgirl1]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 23, 2011 Share This

...Irene lashing the northern coast of the Dominican Republic...
expected to move over the Turks and Caicos later today...


summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...20.3n 70.1w
about 105 mi...170 km se of Grand Turk island
about 50 mi...85 km NE of Puerto Plata Dominican Republic
maximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/h
present movement...WNW or 295 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...978 mb...28.88 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* north coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border
eastward to Cabo engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands...southeastern and central Bahamas

a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the
Dominican Republic border
* northwestern Bahamas

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo eastward
to Cabo engano
* all of Haiti

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am AST...0900 UTC...the center of Hurricane Irene was located
near latitude 20.3 north...longitude 70.1 west. Irene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. This general motion
is expected to continue through today...followed by a turn toward
the northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track...
the core of Irene will pass to the north of the Dominican Republic
and Haiti this morning...near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands
and the southeastern Bahamas by tonight...and be near the central
Bahamas early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...160 km/h...with higher
gusts. Irene is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours...and Irene could become a major hurricane later
today or on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km. Earlier this morning...a sustained wind of 58 mph...
93 km/h was reported at Puerto Plata Dominican Republic.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb...28.88 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over the
northern portions of Dominican Republic this morning and into the
afternoon...and localized hurricane conditions are expected over
the northern portions of the Dominican Republic this morning. The
highest winds are likely to occur over areas of elevated terrain.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later this morning with
hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach the central Bahamas
late tonight with hurricane conditions expected by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas
by late Wednesday...with hurricane conditions possible by Thursday.

Rainfall...Irene is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across Puerto Rico. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected over northern Hispaniola...
with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches possible over
higher terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the southeastern
and central Bahamas...and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels over the southeastern and
central Bahamas...and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Storm surge
will also raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels along the entire coast of the Dominican Republic. Near
the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am EDT.
Next complete advisory...1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[wzrgirl1]

Looks as if Florida may have dodged another bullet. Wow! Thoughts and prayers are out to those in the Carolina's that may feel the brunt of this strong and powerful storm.

[jlauderdal]

Looks as if Florida may have dodged another bullet. Wow! Thoughts and prayers are out to those in the Carolina's that may feel the brunt of this strong and powerful storm.

Once again we are lucky in this part of the world, still early in the season but this is a big miss for us.


RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS
HURRICANE IRENE PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE AREA
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE
WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.


EXTENDED FORECAST

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING HURRICANE IRENE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO BE SOUTHWEST OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WHICH ARE
NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

[SENClander]

And to think Jim Cantore came to Wrightsville Beach, NC earlier this year to film a Weather Channel commercial. Figures.

[Nimbus]

No talk of any particular landfall yet but obviously the intensity forecast is up.
Its interesting some of the latest models are showing a Long island express track.
The coastal areas up that way have been built up some since the last major hurricane.

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 23, 2011
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smoothing through all of the aircraft fixes since Irene moved off
the coast of Puerto Rico more than 18 hours ago yields a long term
motion of 295/10 kt...which is used for this advisory. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. The
23/00z G-IV jet aircraft and Air Force c-130 dropsonde data appear
to have settled down the models...and there is considerably less
difference among the various model solutions now. The overwhelming
consensus is that Irene will gradually turn northwestward over the
next 2-3 days and then move northward through a developing break in
the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and
lies very close to consensus models tvcn and tvca.


An earlier recon flight indicated the pressure had only fallen by 2
mb down to 978 mb...and the overall appearance in satellite imagery
has changed little since the previous advisory. As a result...the
initial intensity is being held at 85 kt...which could be generous.
Irene is forecast to remain in a relatively low vertical wind shear
environment and over SSTs near 30c. That combination...along with
expanding outflow in all quadrants...should allow for Irene to
become a major hurricane within the next 24 hours once the cyclone
clears the effects of Hispaniola...and probably maintain major
hurricane status throughout the remainder of the 5-day forecast
period. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and closely follows a blend of the HWRF and GFDL model intensity
forecasts...and conversion of the surface pressures depicted in the
GFS and ECMWF models.


Wind radii were expanded based on a blend of recon flight-level
winds...SFMR winds...and surface observations.


Irene is forecast to become a larger than average hurricane. It is
important to remind users not to focus on the exact forecast
track...especially at days 4 and 5...since the most recent 5-year
average errors at those forecast times are 200 and 250 miles...
respectively.


Forecast positions and Max winds


init 23/0900z 20.3n 70.1w 85 kt 100 mph
12h 23/1800z 20.9n 71.5w 95 kt 110 mph
24h 24/0600z 21.7n 73.3w 105 kt 120 mph
36h 24/1800z 22.9n 74.9w 110 kt 125 mph
48h 25/0600z 24.3n 76.2w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 26/0600z 28.0n 78.0w 115 kt 135 mph
96h 27/0600z 31.5n 78.3w 105 kt 120 mph
120h 28/0600z 35.0n 78.0w 100 kt 115 mph...inland


$$
forecaster Stewart

[wzrgirl1]

Still only going to be about 2 degrees (120 miles) off of our coast and with TS winds about 185 miles from the center, should put us under a TS watch most likely, but I will take that over the alternative.

[xironman]

Given how big she is going to be my guess is that people will be watching the forecast points pretty close on Thursday waiting for the turn, the big ones always seem to turn late.

[NC George]

Still only going to be about 2 degrees (120 miles) off of our coast and with TS winds about 185 miles from the center, should put us under a TS watch most likely, but I will take that over the alternative.

That's 185 miles on the other side of the storm, it won't be so far out on the west side. Plus the wind field usually magically shrinks as a hurricane approaches land.

[ObsessedMiami]

Just waking up here- are we now looking at likely no watches for SFL.?

[GCANE]

PV anomaly has gotten down to the surface with Radius of Max Winds (RMW) at about 140 km.

Core has also warmed up to 2C and is somewhat narrow.

If you look at the second image below showing the temperature anomaly, you can see a small temperature inversion in the boundary layer about about a radius of 100 km from the COC.

This is limiting parcel ascent and keeping rain rate low at this time as seen in the third image.

I am watching to see when the inversion dissipates opening the door for deeper convection to fire.

[KWT]

Air from the mountions is holding back the system a touch right now, structure looks good but needs to wait till it pulls away from Hispaniola before really exploding into life.

[Nimbus]

The trough that is expect to steer Irene north and away from the Florida coast is currently spinning up by Lake Superior. Its like watching Tiger Woods back swing and predicting where the golf ball will land on the green from that.

Doesn't look like any surprises at this time. Only thing I noticed in the WV loop that hasn't been mentioned is that the ULL to the east of Irene is really doing an excellent job of ventilating the outflow.
Theoretically when Irene really bombs out it could change the ridge dynamics but they are already modeling for a cat 4 off Florida. It would be great for Florida if the 3 day forecast didn't change from the way it is now.

[GCANE]

Inflow is definitely being disrupted by the island.

The were some strong MCS's firing south and SE of the island overnight.

That in turn has unevenly heated the upper troposphere so that the anti-cyclone remains south of the island at about 17.5N 71W.

The PV column cannot effectively expanded vertically, and hence spin at a high angular speed, with the anti-cyclone in this position.

The best position for the anti-cyclone is ahead of Irene so that Irene can track into it.

That being said, UL conditions are still ideal with a tremendous outflow channel due to the strong TUTT anchored at about 20N 50W.

Nothing has really changed as far as what should occur as Irene tracks away from Hispaniola.

She will be entering 30C water with OHC equivalent to the west Carib.

If outflow remains intact and the anti-cyclone moves into the ideal location, there is no reason I can see that Irene can not be a Cat 4.

Land interaction may induce EWRC's and that in turn could keep Irene from being a Cat 5, but that is speculation on my part.

[N2FSU]

Just woke up and looked at satellite loops before anything else. Is she slowing her forward movement? It doesn't look like she has moved much on the 6 hour loop.

[KWT]

I agree Gcane I'm not sure it'll get upto a 5, thats quite an extreme idea anyway. A 4 however IMO is very much possible given the great conditions aloft.

Any slowdown of strengthening is better for the Bahamas, who are going to face a very rough few days.

This is where our short term attention must lie, on the Bahamas who are probably going to deal witha major hurricane.

[Downdraft]

Well, waking up gives me a sigh of relief here in east central Florida. I'm wondering though given Irene's size HURRIVAC still puts us on the extreme edge of tropical storm force winds. Hopefully, only a brush but I don't think Florida's beaches are going to fair well considering wave actions.

[bahamaswx]

Now being forecast to move a few miles to my northeast. This would be a godsend in regards to storm surge.