ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Agreed GCANe, i suspect 115-120kts sound sabout right as per the NHC forecast, would be a very powerful hurricane indeed capable of bad damage on either flank of the hurricane.

[jhpigott]

I believe the HMRF and GDFL are up next. Where is the best place to watch them as they load?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Im not convinced of these models yet.


I want to see the ridging is all. This is awfully apocalyptic

[HurricaneWarning92]

Has the ridge weakened at all? i just still find it odd that the trough is gonna be strong enough to lift it and make such a turn... its August.

[jhpigott]

Im not convinced of these models yet.


I want to see the ridging is all. This is awfully apocalyptic

With the new atmospheric data ingested in the 00Z models I think they have a pretty good grip on the synoptics (ridging and troughing). I think the only thing at this point that could cause any wild deviation from the current models is interaction with DR/Haiti. If Irene gets hung up on the coast or even pulled WSW along the coast (like Debby back in 2000) it could delay the turn and make things a wee bit more interesting for FL

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Im not convinced of these models yet.


I want to see the ridging is all. This is awfully apocalyptic

With the new atmospheric data ingested in the 00Z models I think they have a pretty good grip on the synoptics (ridging and troughing). I think the only thing at this point that could cause any wild deviation from the current models is interaction with DR/Haiti. If Irene gets hung up on the coast or even pulled WSW along the coast (like Debby back in 2000) it could delay the turn and make things a wee bit more interesting for FL

I just dont see it Turning NNW in the next 24 hours is all from its present position. I think our cone goes back west a notch. But im not a scientician and this is just a amatuer guess. I see it got blasted a bit on DR and I say it trends west a bit more than expected..

[deltadog03]

Well, models have certainly converged on a solid solution. I would still say anyone in SC and NC be prepared for first landfall...then maybe all the way up the coast....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Pretty Similiar imo




Thats 1996 Bertha for anyone who remembers. Just a clip S presently of where it is now.

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF stats and wind swath

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 23

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -70.70 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -72.70 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.30 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.10 LAT: 22.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.20 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 25.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.70 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 30.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -77.70 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 33.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 34.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 35.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 36.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

[SEASON_CANCELED]

06Z HWRF stats and wind swath

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 23

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -70.70 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -72.70 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.30 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.10 LAT: 22.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.60 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.20 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 25.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.70 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 30.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -77.70 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 33.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 34.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 35.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 36.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

apocalyptic. Aimed right at the economic nerve center of United States.

[eastcoastFL]

So is it safe to give the all clear here in FL? No more cone = no more worries, right?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

no i wouldnt. When it starts going into the weakness than yes. Should happen in the next 24 hours.

[GTStorm]

So is it safe to give the all clear here in FL? No more cone = no more worries, right?

Keep a "weather eye", as they say, but I wouldn't cancel your weekend plans.

[deltadog03]

***CURRENT*** Steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[GTStorm]

***CURRENT*** Steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

finally....a plot I can understand!

[CourierPR]

I seem to remember a storm in 1999 named Irene where the models had her moving west of Florida even as it passed over my house in SE FL. The NHC track had her going west of us. I will be vigilant until Irene is north and east of SFL.

[jhpigott]

06z GDFL soon?

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL stats

HOUR: .0 LONG: -69.73 LAT: 20.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.61
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -70.68 LAT: 20.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.78
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.23 LAT: 20.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.93
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -71.66 LAT: 20.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.51
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -72.47 LAT: 21.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.53
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -73.33 LAT: 21.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.03
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -74.11 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.04
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.89 LAT: 23.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.79
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.80 LAT: 24.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.97
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.56 LAT: 24.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.82
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.97 LAT: 25.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.86
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.22 LAT: 26.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):122.09
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.58 LAT: 27.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.27
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.81 LAT: 28.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):116.97
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.78 LAT: 29.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):119.52
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.51 LAT: 30.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.76
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -77.42 LAT: 31.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.45
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -77.23 LAT: 32.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.61
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -77.01 LAT: 32.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.34
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -76.64 LAT: 34.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.99
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -76.43 LAT: 35.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.95
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -76.01 LAT: 36.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.02

[Tyler Penland]

06z GDFL soon?

[jhpigott]

Looks like the 06z GFS, GDFL and HMRF are all a little further west than the 00z runs