ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nikki]

This kinda off subject, but S2K really needs to change the colors of the hurricane cats, 3 and 4 are almost completely indistinguishable from each other, perhaps a more purple for cat 4? or maybe start at green for depression, yellow for TS light orange cat 1 cat 2 orange cat 3 red cat 4 purple and cat 5 white? Or at least something so we can tell what is what on the forecast.

Those are the colors that the NHC chose so S2K has nothing to do with the colors chosen. I agree they are hard to read sometimes.

What do you mean those are the colors the NHC chose?

They are referring to the colors that designate the category of a storm on the NHC map. The colors for a Cat 3 and Cat 4 hurricane are hard to tell apart, because they are so close in hue. I was simply pointing out that S2K did not chose the colors for the categorization, but the NHC did so therefore they will probably chose not to change the colors on the map since it is a NHC map. In all due respect though, this is not important right now, Irene is, so let's get back on topic

[JPmia]

Interesting.. now the atmospheric conditions are not as perfect as we thought they would be per NHC discussion:
A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

[Aric Dunn]

To get to the 11am 12H forecast point (21.3N 72.3W @ 90 KT) - She would have to go between 300-310, starting right now.

and from satellite she seems to have been moving more 280 to 285 the last couple hours..

[tailgater]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/145015W5_NL_sm.gif

hmmm better start turning now of that going to verify.. lol

No kidding. Thats a pretty sharp NW turn based on its current heading.

Yeah after looking at that 5 day cone chart that is a pretty sharp turn it's gonna have to make. I didn't think she was gonna she 75W but I'm beging to wonder.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is actually a pretty decent chance this misses the United States entirely.

Could this be a record for the most posts on a system that does not actually make landfall in the United States, if it ended up not hitting the United States?

Looks like based on the pattern now with that stubborn death ridge over Texas....the only way to get a CONUS hit is to have something form in the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba...

We need a major shift in the long-wave pattern if we expect Cape Verde systems to make an impact.

Still plenty of time for the long-wave pattern to change though.

October could be an interesting month.

[fci]

So now the discussion starts to mention that she could curve and miss land completely?
Kudos to the Pro Met from Fox13 who posted that yesterday and got a lot of laughter at the time.
Now, it just might happen.

[dixiebreeze]

Seems to me there was a bit of caveat in the 11 a.m. discussion update, concerning just how close she will track to the SE coast.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231502
XXAA 73157 99205 70710 08001 99980 27406 18514 00683 ///// /////
92509 24203 19521 85249 20804 19018 70919 14836 25003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81438
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2053N07095W 1442 MBL WND 19516 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19
514 979692 WL150 18515 084 REL 2052N07096W 143821 SPG 2053N07095W
144143 =
XXBB 73158 99205 70710 08001 00980 27406 11850 20804 22780 17408
33751 17845 44707 16038 55692 13433
21212 00980 18514 11954 20014 22935 20020 33888 19524 44850 19018
55816 19518 66778 17516 77692 21503
31313 09608 81438
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2053N07095W 1442 MBL WND 19516 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19
514 979692 WL150 18515 084 REL 2052N07096W 143821 SPG 2053N07095W
144143 =

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.7N 71.2W
Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the S (184°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
986mb (29.12 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 35° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph)
1000mb -124m (-407 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 561m (1,841 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 94 knots (108 mph)
850mb 1,303m (4,275 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 55° (from the NE) 77 knots (89 mph)
700mb 2,984m (9,790 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 9.8°C (49.6°F) 25° (from the NNE) 62 knots (71 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:44Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 20.66N 71.28W
Splash Time: 14:48Z

Release Location: 20.72N 71.21W View map)
Release Time: 14:44:19Z

Splash Location: 20.67N 71.27W (
Splash Time: 14:47:53Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 93 knots (107 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 691mb to 986mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 40° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 83 knots (96 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
986mb (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F)
956mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.9°C (71.4°F)
938mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F)
905mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F)
850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F)
786mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
712mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
691mb 12.2°C (54.0°F) 8.5°C (47.3°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
986mb (Surface) 35° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph)
975mb 40° (from the NE) 87 knots (100 mph)
961mb 45° (from the NE) 97 knots (112 mph)
945mb 55° (from the NE) 100 knots (115 mph)
927mb 60° (from the ENE) 94 knots (108 mph)
916mb 60° (from the ENE) 95 knots (109 mph)
896mb 60° (from the ENE) 84 knots (97 mph)
850mb 55° (from the NE) 77 knots (89 mph)
691mb 25° (from the NNE) 63 knots (72 mph)

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/14:38:20Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
070 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2918 m
D. 62 kt
E. 092 deg 11 nm
F. 193 deg 67 kt
G. 098 deg 13 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3040 m
J. 14 C / 3107 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 67 KT E QUAD 14:34:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 14:44:00Z
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLOUDS BLO
;

[DonWrk]

Wow looks like it follows the Bahama Islands perfectly and then from there who really knows but things have definitely made it more clear that it's looking like Florida won't get too big a piece of this.

[SNOW_JOKE]

WV loop. Irene looks to be 'stepping' northwestwards rather than a gradual recurve. If it keeps the trend up the track will be further West to make up for the lack of latitude gained.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[HurrMark]

Looks very Floyd-esque. Landfall in estern NC, followed by some weakening...probably a strong TS by the time it gets past Delaware.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231509
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 14 20110823
145900 2121N 07151W 6917 03182 0027 +080 //// 054042 044 038 000 05
145930 2122N 07153W 6916 03186 0022 +085 +075 051039 040 040 000 03
150000 2123N 07154W 6914 03191 0026 +082 +077 052037 037 040 000 00
150030 2125N 07156W 6915 03191 0031 +080 +078 051037 037 039 000 03
150100 2126N 07157W 6914 03192 0031 +080 +077 051037 038 040 000 03
150130 2127N 07158W 6914 03192 0029 +082 +075 052035 035 039 000 03
150200 2129N 07200W 6914 03193 0031 +085 +073 055034 035 039 000 03
150230 2130N 07201W 6914 03196 0031 +083 +079 055036 036 039 000 00
150300 2131N 07202W 6916 03196 0037 +080 +078 056036 037 038 000 03
150330 2133N 07204W 6916 03196 0039 +080 +073 053034 035 038 000 03
150400 2134N 07205W 6916 03195 0039 +080 +070 047037 039 037 000 00
150430 2135N 07206W 6913 03199 0049 +076 +073 043044 044 037 000 03
150500 2136N 07208W 6915 03203 0051 +075 +068 042047 048 037 000 03
150530 2138N 07209W 6916 03205 0051 +079 +063 045046 046 037 000 00
150600 2139N 07210W 6914 03223 0065 +084 +060 046044 045 040 001 03
150630 2140N 07211W 6913 03226 0063 +086 +058 047042 043 036 000 00
150700 2141N 07213W 6916 03218 0058 +089 +059 045041 041 037 001 00
150730 2143N 07214W 6913 03223 0055 +090 +060 044040 041 037 002 03
150800 2144N 07215W 6914 03223 0053 +094 +060 045040 041 044 002 03
150830 2145N 07217W 6916 03223 0059 +092 +061 048041 042 /// /// 03
$$

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 14:38:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°31'N 70°57'W (20.5167N 70.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 66 miles (107 km) to the S (170°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,918m (9,573ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (92°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 193° at 67kts (From the SSW at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the E (98°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,107m (10,194ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the east quadrant at 14:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:44:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLOUDS BLO

[Aric Dunn]

WV loop. Irene looks to be 'stepping' northwestwards rather than a gradual recurve. If it keeps the trend up the track will be further West to make up for the lack of latitude gained.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

exactly. we see this sort of thing all the time.

[RL3AO]

119
UZNT13 KNHC 231503
XXAA 73157 99207 70712 08001 99986 25207 03570 00624 ///// /////
92561 23625 06094 85303 22850 05577 70984 14244 02562 88999 77999
31313 09608 81444
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2066N07128W 1448 MBL WND 04593 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 05076 986691 WL150 04083 081 REL 2072N07121W 144419 SPG 206
7N07127W 144753 =
XXBB 73158 99207 70712 08001 00986 25207 11956 22809 22938 23017
33905 24238 44850 22850 55786 23262 66712 17056 77691 12237
21212 00986 03570 11975 04087 22961 04597 33945 05600 44927 06094
55916 06095 66896 06084 77850 05577 88691 02563
31313 09608 81444
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2066N07128W 1448 MBL WND 04593 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 05076 986691 WL150 04083 081 REL 2072N07121W 144419 SPG 206
7N07127W 144753 =
;


NW Eyewall

Supports 70 to 75kts.

[chris_fit]

Have to wait for a few fixes from recon, but per the visible, looks like she's doing 280-285 max right now, maybe even 275. Hope it's just a wobble.

Also seemed to have lost some punch, Recon not finding any super high winds like last night.

[Dave]

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.7N 71.2W
Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the S (184°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
986mb (29.12 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 35° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph)
1000mb -124m (-407 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 561m (1,841 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 60° (from the ENE) 94 knots (108 mph)
850mb 1,303m (4,275 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 55° (from the NE) 77 knots (89 mph)
700mb 2,984m (9,790 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 9.8°C (49.6°F) 25° (from the NNE) 62 knots (71 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:44Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 20.66N 71.28W
Splash Time: 14:48Z

Release Location: 20.72N 71.21W View map)
Release Time: 14:44:19Z

Splash Location: 20.67N 71.27W (
Splash Time: 14:47:53Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 93 knots (107 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 691mb to 986mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 40° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 83 knots (96 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
986mb (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F)
956mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.9°C (71.4°F)
938mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F)
905mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F)
850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F)
786mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
712mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
691mb 12.2°C (54.0°F) 8.5°C (47.3°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
986mb (Surface) 35° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph)
975mb 40° (from the NE) 87 knots (100 mph)
961mb 45° (from the NE) 97 knots (112 mph)
945mb 55° (from the NE) 100 knots (115 mph)
927mb 60° (from the ENE) 94 knots (108 mph)
916mb 60° (from the ENE) 95 knots (109 mph)
896mb 60° (from the ENE) 84 knots (97 mph)
850mb 55° (from the NE) 77 knots (89 mph)
691mb 25° (from the NNE) 63 knots (72 mph)


---



[northtxboy]

Please everyone on the East Coast DO NOT let ur guard down with this storm. We have all seen these storms make crazy shifts in the past. You are not safe right now. A 100 or 150 mile shift of a storm is nothing for a storm this size. Right now it is foolish to put ur bets on a recurve!!!