ATL: IRENE - Models

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JPmia
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#4401 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:03 am

looks like it might have a harder time recurving away from the Carolinas on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4402 Postby Riptide » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 am

GFS is about to say hello to the HWRF and the Euro.
Last edited by Riptide on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4403 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 am

66 hours finally starts turning north.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4404 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 am

Should be right, but it is a rush

Image

Image

Arrg!, I knew i would mess it up
Last edited by xironman on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4405 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:04 am

and it makes a big difference realtive the nc coastline as it lays more E to W than Floridas hence RF quad impacts are affected by as little as 25 miles of miles of track difference over 12 or more hours
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Re:

#4406 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:05 am

Aric Dunn wrote:66 hours finally starts turning north.


Not really, I see a NNW heading between 60 and 66 hours
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#4407 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:05 am

Heading NNW at 60hrs and of course, strengthening.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4408 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:05 am

oh and these runs should be more accurate now that we have all this data pumping into them:

THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED
ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST...14
ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...76 CONUS...10 MEXICAN AND 11
CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS 16 DROPSONDE AND 4 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON
REPORTS FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KWNO
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Re: Re:

#4409 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:06 am

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:66 hours finally starts turning north.


Not really, I see a NNW heading between 60 and 66 hours


hence.. the "starts" just meant it was no longer going wnw
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4410 Postby Battlebrick » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:06 am

"THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST...14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...76 CONUS...10 MEXICAN AND 11 CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS 16 DROPSONDE AND 4 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. "

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KWNO
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Re: Re:

#4411 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:06 am

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:66 hours finally starts turning north.


Not really, I see a NNW heading between 60 and 66 hours


Something like 350-355 motion, probably closer to due north then NNW...
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#4412 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:07 am

its quite a bit slower this run as well.
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#4413 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:08 am

Hasnt the GFS been to the right of the HWRF and Euro in previous runs?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4414 Postby BigA » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:08 am

Looks about 50-75 miles WSW of the 06Z run as of 72 hours out.
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Re:

#4415 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:08 am

Aric Dunn wrote:its quite a bit slower this run as well.


yeah it's quite unsettling to see a Cat 3/4 to our SE for 2-3 days! :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4416 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:10 am

Looking at the 12Z, 06Z, and 00Z GFS runs side by side... through 78h the 12Z is left of the 6Z, but very similar to the 00Z, just a time-step or two slower.
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#4417 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:10 am

it's not going to miss the SC/NC on this run it appears. That is an interesting development compared to 00z.

scratch that .. very close though.
Last edited by JPmia on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4418 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:12 am

Motion looks close to due north by 78hrs on the 12z, better get going NNE if its going to miss NC...
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Re:

#4419 Postby GTStorm » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:14 am

JPmia wrote:it's not going to miss the SC/NC on this run it appears. That is an interesting development compared to 00z.

skirts the outer banks, actually
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Re: Re:

#4420 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:15 am

GTStorm wrote:
JPmia wrote:it's not going to miss the SC/NC on this run it appears. That is an interesting development compared to 00z.

skirts the outer banks, actually


yep not too much different from the last run.. the consistency continues.
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