ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

im really beginning to wonder if this ridge dropping south over NC/SC is going to have an affect.. because look at the flow of the complex of thunderstorms heading towards florida. should be going the other direction.

I saw that awhile ago, and was wondering about the direction of those storms too.

yeah the NAM had a solution like this yesterday. today its does not but apparently the ridge is developing over NC SC and dropping south..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

I think the models are not seeing how slow this joker is moving.....timing is EVERYTHING

Slow mover = more east?

Or doesnt it give it more time for a ridge to start building in again?

Further west I'd have thought as the trough lifts out in 72hrs and flattens out and therefore doesn't do as an effective job of picking up the system.

GFS hits the NE coast hard on its 12z run...

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/15:56:00Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
071 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2909 m
D. 58 kt
E. 273 deg 13 nm
F. 357 deg 58 kt
G. 273 deg 13 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 9 C / 3116 m
J. 15 C / 3105 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 16:02:30Z
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLDS BLO
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:56:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°35'N 71°05'W (20.5833N 71.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the S (177°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,909m (9,544ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 357° at 58kts (From the N at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,116m (10,223ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,105m (10,187ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLDS BLO

[Aric Dunn]

Also that short wave over canada does not seem to be dropping south like its supposed to be doing..

[KWT]

Remember, they are fixing at 700 mb so the pressure is always going to be lower than the actual surface pressure.

Eh? If they're fixing / flying at 700 mb, the pressure immediately outside the plane is 700 mb. The pressure values reported in this thread (974.4, 978, 980, etc) are sea-level pressures.

Yesterday, when they were fixing at 700 mb, the "surface" pressure they were getting from the plane was always lower than the dropsonde surface pressure.. why?

Dropsondes can slightly miss the center sometimes, think of the distance they have to fall, even a slight wind will put them slightly off course from the lowest pressure, more chance the plane gets the true central pressure.

[Evil Jeremy]

while I don't think a landfall is still in play for se fl, the area could still get ts conditions if Irene goes west enough.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231619
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 21 20110823
160900 2035N 07027W 6914 03144 9966 +086 //// 184053 054 056 008 01
160930 2035N 07025W 6912 03146 9965 +090 //// 183052 053 053 009 01
161000 2035N 07023W 6917 03143 9964 +095 +089 184051 052 052 004 00
161030 2035N 07021W 6916 03153 9969 +095 +090 184051 052 053 002 00
161100 2035N 07019W 6917 03157 9979 +092 +083 180051 052 049 004 00
161130 2035N 07018W 6909 03167 9977 +093 +089 179051 052 048 001 00
161200 2035N 07016W 6916 03157 9978 +093 //// 180047 048 050 007 01
161230 2035N 07014W 6913 03163 9983 +091 //// 178041 043 050 009 01
161300 2035N 07012W 6906 03172 //// +075 //// 185042 044 053 018 01
161330 2035N 07010W 6925 03149 //// +069 //// 176048 051 057 024 01
161400 2035N 07008W 6922 03150 //// +064 //// 180055 057 054 022 01
161430 2035N 07006W 6909 03167 //// +060 //// 182058 059 053 012 01
161500 2035N 07005W 6904 03178 //// +065 //// 179051 053 052 013 01
161530 2035N 07003W 6926 03147 //// +073 //// 181051 053 053 009 01
161600 2035N 07001W 6912 03171 //// +076 //// 182049 052 052 009 01
161630 2035N 06959W 6913 03173 //// +058 //// 174050 051 052 013 01
161700 2035N 06957W 6913 03173 //// +053 //// 170050 051 051 009 01
161730 2035N 06956W 6924 03162 //// +068 //// 172052 053 050 006 01
161800 2035N 06954W 6918 03171 0017 +072 //// 172051 052 050 005 01
161830 2035N 06952W 6912 03175 0011 +082 //// 173051 052 049 003 01
$$
;

[Battlebrick]

Dropsondes can slightly miss the center sometimes, think of the distance they have to fall, even a slight wind will put them slightly off course from the lowest pressure, more chance the plane gets the true central pressure.

Vortex took the dropsonde pressure, not the plane "surface" pressure.

[micktooth]

Also that short wave over canada does not seem to be dropping south like its supposed to be doing..

Looks like the incredible Texas "death ridge" is flexing its muscle !

[SouthFLTropics]

Also that short wave over canada does not seem to be dropping south like its supposed to be doing..

Aric, you always do an excellent job with the "outside of the box" setups and scenarios. With the current situation that is unfolding (friction from Hispaniola, ridge over SC/NC, and the short wave over Canada not dropping south) what do you think are the odds of a more wider, sweeping turn closer to the coastline but the end result up in New England being the same???

SFT

[Vortex]

sure looks 275, maybe 280 ..very evident on the vis and quite disernable now that we have an eye to track...

[fci]

You know I don't mean to sound ugly, but I am watching the weather channel and I read things here, we have a hugh hurricane maybe even a 3 or 4 headed to NC (it could miss us yes but right now all models point to us) and all people can talk about is how its going to miss Florida! well good for Florida count your blessings but please focus on where its going and post so we can get the latest info that you people seem to know so well. I enjoy reading and learning from many folks on here but now it just seems unemportant all of a sudden. My son in law lived in Florida during Andrew he head in a closet, he's 29 years old and getting plenty worried. I told him yes we might get it but becasue of the difference in our coast and Florida for some reason we just dont seem to get hit as hard as Florida so hang put and we will see what happens. keep us informed please we are concerned up here!

You are right.
There are a large number of members from FL so we tend to dominate when there is a FL threat. Just like when there is a GOM threat those members from the Gulf Coast residents flood the board. Same goes with Texas threats and Texas members.
So, we do need to stop the FL talkin this thread and focus the attention of those currently in harms way in The Carolinas.
Let's hope that the trend is YOUR friend and curves away from your area too.
Good luck and be smart and safe!

[Dave]

[WxGuy1]

Remember, they are fixing at 700 mb so the pressure is always going to be lower than the actual surface pressure.

Eh? If they're fixing / flying at 700 mb, the pressure immediately outside the plane is 700 mb. The pressure values reported in this thread (974.4, 978, 980, etc) are sea-level pressures.

Yesterday, when they were fixing at 700 mb, the "surface" pressure they were getting from the plane was always lower than the dropsonde surface pressure.. why?

Hi Battlebrick -- I'm not sure, though I wish I had been paying attention better yesterday (perhaps slight errors in the extrapolation from flight-level to sea-level are the cause of the discrepancy, or they just didn't fly through the exact center). I'm not aware of a systematic bias in flight-level-estimate minimum sea-level pressure compared to dropsonde-reported minimum sea-level pressure, though that's not to say that such a bias doesn't exist!

[KWT]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

[ozonepete]

sure looks 275, maybe 280 ..very evident on the vis and quite disernable now that we have an eye to track...

you mean a wobble to watch...

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 231624
97779 16214 30206 69708 31000 17046 08089 /3083
RMK AF302 0809A IRENE OB 15
SWS = 46 KTS
EAST OUTBOUND
BKN CLDS BLO
SFC NOT VISIBLE

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231625
XXAA 73167 99206 70707 08000 99992 25405 13049 00569 ///// /////
92616 21803 14571 85350 18804 16067 70006 11001 18055 88999 77999
31313 09608 81605
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 2066N07069W 1609 MBL WND 13073 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 16064 992692 WL150 12568 083 REL 2059N07065W 160537 SPG 206
6N07069W 160955 =
XXBB 73168 99206 70707 08000 00992 25405 11850 18804 22725 13404
33711 14403 44692 08400
21212 00992 13049 11991 13050 22987 12566 33984 12571 44969 13073
55957 12580 66949 13074 77935 14077 88928 14069 99919 14575 11892
15567 22850 16067 33692 18054
31313 09608 81605
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 2066N07069W 1609 MBL WND 13073 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 16064 992692 WL150 12568 083 REL 2059N07065W 160537 SPG 206
6N07069W 160955

[Battlebrick]

BKN CLDS BLO?