ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Also that short wave over canada does not seem to be dropping south like its supposed to be doing..

Aric, you always do an excellent job with the "outside of the box" setups and scenarios. With the current situation that is unfolding (friction from Hispaniola, ridge over SC/NC, and the short wave over Canada not dropping south) what do you think are the odds of a more wider, sweeping turn closer to the coastline but the end result up in New England being the same???

SFT

well all day yesterday I was saying the chances of a more gradual turn is more likely. large powerful hurricanes rarely turn on a dime ( hence the lack of a nw motion right now as is forecast) and this does not seem like its wanting to turn anytime soon... so every hour it does not turn brings it closer to the FL coast and increases landfall somewhere in SE

[fci]

is the thick cloud cover over palm beach county associated with irene?

I think it is the daily seabreeze which will migrate inland

[Dave]

wow thats alot of recon, people are going to have to be at the top of thier game!

I'm going to nail down some sleep sometime today KWT. Between here & my work I've gotten 9 hrs of sleep in 52 so far and I'm starting to get slap happy if nothing else. I'll go another hour or so then I've got to try to sleep...I keep waking up at the advisory time though...wonder why that is?

[tgenius]

So Aric you think they may force the hand and put up watches on FL if it keeps goin west?

[mutley]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

It does look that way, doesn't it? Like the convection just took a leap towards Cuba.

[tolakram]

BKN CLDS BLO? = Broken Clouds Below (I think!)

please keep recon discussion in this thread.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

well remember this is the second recon plane. so the satellite loop go back before recon got there. so with just two fixes its hard to tell what it was doing before.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 231624
XXAA 73167 99206 70701 08000 99000 26005 12546 00000 26005 /////
92686 21607 13556 85419 18405 15056 70068 09001 18055 88999 77999
31313 09608 81614
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 14
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2064N07017W 1618 MBL WND 13054 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15554 999692 WL150 13050 084 REL 2058N07014W 161402 SPG 2064N0
7016W 161809 =
XXBB 73168 99206 70701 08000 00000 26005 11850 18405 22707 11402
33692 06400
21212 00000 12546 11995 12550 22938 13560 33925 13556 44887 14560
55850 15056 66812 17046 77747 17567 88692 18056
31313 09608 81614
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 14
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2064N07017W 1618 MBL WND 13054 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15554 999692 WL150 13050 084 REL 2058N07014W 161402 SPG 2064N0
7016W 161809 =
;


000

[Dave]

*To all members, let's keep the comments or questions for recon over in the recon discussion thread so we can keep the data & graphics flowing on this one. Plus there are times when we dont' see your question or comment here because we're already looking for another picture/vdm/hdobs/dropsonde or all of them at once.

Click here to go to that thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111543&p=2172356#p2172356

Thanks everyone!

[KWT]

I've got no time for recon, sadly putting in 12hr shifts at the moment so not much spare time for Irene!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231629
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 22 20110823
161900 2034N 06950W 6913 03180 0010 +086 //// 171050 051 052 002 01
161930 2034N 06948W 6916 03178 0014 +083 //// 171048 049 051 001 01
162000 2034N 06947W 6914 03181 0017 +082 //// 173048 048 049 002 01
162030 2034N 06945W 6910 03184 0016 +083 //// 174047 048 048 001 05
162100 2034N 06943W 6918 03177 0024 +080 //// 174046 047 046 002 05
162130 2035N 06941W 6910 03198 0022 +086 +080 169044 045 /// /// 03
162200 2037N 06941W 6916 03182 0013 +091 +075 166043 044 046 001 03
162230 2039N 06942W 6914 03186 0010 +090 +075 165044 044 046 000 03
162300 2041N 06942W 6917 03184 0009 +090 +077 162045 045 045 000 03
162330 2044N 06942W 6916 03187 0010 +093 +074 159043 044 046 000 03
162400 2046N 06943W 6910 03190 0014 +090 +075 158044 044 045 000 03
162430 2048N 06943W 6918 03183 0016 +088 +076 162045 046 044 000 03
162500 2050N 06943W 6912 03186 0017 +085 +079 161046 047 044 001 03
162530 2052N 06943W 6916 03186 0020 +085 +081 162046 046 044 002 00
162600 2054N 06944W 6914 03190 0028 +079 //// 162045 046 044 002 01
162630 2056N 06943W 6913 03188 0031 +077 //// 160046 046 044 002 01
162700 2059N 06943W 6916 03188 0038 +074 //// 159046 046 046 003 01
162730 2101N 06943W 6917 03185 0036 +076 //// 151043 044 047 003 01
162800 2103N 06943W 6912 03194 0039 +074 //// 149044 044 046 004 01
162830 2105N 06943W 6916 03189 0039 +075 +071 146043 043 045 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OBS 13

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 13

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.6N 70.7W
Location: 66 miles (106 km) to the SSE (155°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
992mb (29.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 130° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
1000mb -69m (-226 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 616m (2,021 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F) 145° (from the SE) 71 knots (82 mph)
850mb 1,350m (4,429 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 160° (from the SSE) 67 knots (77 mph)
700mb 3,006m (9,862 ft) 11.0°C (51.8°F) 10.9°C (51.6°F) 180° (from the S) 55 knots (63 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:05Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 090° (E) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 20.66N 70.69W
Splash Time: 16:09Z

Release Location: 20.59N 70.65W View map)
Release Time: 16:05:37Z

Splash Location: 20.66N 70.69W (
Splash Time: 16:09:55Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 73 knots (84 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 64 knots (74 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 692mb to 992mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 68 knots (78 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
992mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
850mb 18.8°C (65.8°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F)
725mb 13.4°C (56.1°F) 13.0°C (55.4°F)
711mb 14.4°C (57.9°F) 14.1°C (57.4°F)
692mb 8.4°C (47.1°F) 8.4°C (47.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
992mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
991mb 130° (from the SE) 50 knots (58 mph)
987mb 125° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph)
984mb 125° (from the SE) 71 knots (82 mph)
969mb 130° (from the SE) 73 knots (84 mph)
957mb 125° (from the SE) 80 knots (92 mph)
949mb 130° (from the SE) 74 knots (85 mph)
935mb 140° (from the SE) 77 knots (89 mph)
928mb 140° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
919mb 145° (from the SE) 75 knots (86 mph)
892mb 155° (from the SSE) 67 knots (77 mph)
850mb 160° (from the SSE) 67 knots (77 mph)
692mb 180° (from the S) 54 knots (62 mph)




[KWT]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

well remember this is the second recon plane. so the satellite loop go back before recon got there. so with just two fixes its hard to tell what it was doing before.

True I suppose it is possible this did move more nortthwards before hand, but recon has two passes now and it looks still like a 285-290 type motion between those passes, need a couple more though really.

[VacationStorm]

Not sure if this is the correct place, but they just ordered a mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke NC effective 5am Thursday.

[marciacubed]

What time is it supposed to start making the turn to to north? If it doesn't start turning this afternoon does anyone think the cone will be adjusted to the left and TS warnings issued for parts of FL?

[Aric Dunn]

So Aric you think they may force the hand and put up watches on FL if it keeps goin west?

Ive been debating on what would be a good call.. if for some odd reason it gets close enough for hurricane force winds.. wouldn't evacs be prudent. its already inside 3 days so not sure what they would do. you can have a cat 4 brush the coast with no evacs .. its very tough call at the moment. because all it takes is a wobble to the west more for a few hours each day and its basically going to be on the florida coast. like with the 12z GFS only 75 or so miles of palm beach. say for instance that track verifies except the 12 hours before it wobbles more wnw for a few hours . so at 12 mph for 3 hours lets say that 36 miles closer and now the hurricane force winds are on the coast. they had better be as certain as they can its going to turn today or many people are possibly going to be screwed

[Dave]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View:

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

If you speed this up and assume you can guess where the center is you can derive the overall motion, which to my eyes is still W of NW.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

well remember this is the second recon plane. so the satellite loop go back before recon got there. so with just two fixes its hard to tell what it was doing before.

True I suppose it is possible this did move more nortthwards before hand, but recon has two passes now and it looks still like a 285-290 type motion between those passes, need a couple more though really.

no what I was saying is that satellite suggest a more westerly motion the last few hours.. so since recon was not there to verify that.