ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SootyTern]

Recon suggests something like WNW is still the track, but I've gotta admit it does look like its going maybe even more west then that on the vis images.

It does look that way, doesn't it? Like the convection just took a leap towards Cuba.

I agree, too. Yesterday the convection 'lunged' north, today it appears to be going more due west. Following the shape of the northern Hispaniola coastline? I'm having trouble seeing the eye in the visible that others have noted.

[tolakram]

From the recon thread...

[Dave]

Can someone break Artist for awhile...she's got stormy weather coming in on her right now.

[Aric Dunn]

What time is it supposed to start making the turn to to north? If it doesn't start turning this afternoon does anyone think the cone will be adjusted to the left and TS warnings issued for parts of FL?

the track will have to be adjusted if it keeps passing forecast points to the left.

[eastcoastFL]

its really looking good now with the buzz saw features starting to show.

[Dave]

AND break me from HDOBS too. lol

074
URNT15 KNHC 231639
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 23 20110823
162900 2107N 06943W 6913 03191 0036 +077 +070 146043 043 045 003 00
162930 2109N 06943W 6914 03193 0041 +074 //// 147044 045 045 003 01
163000 2111N 06943W 6916 03190 0037 +077 //// 149044 045 046 002 01
163030 2113N 06942W 6915 03192 //// +062 //// 147046 048 046 008 01
163100 2115N 06942W 6920 03188 0038 +079 +077 146043 044 046 005 00
163130 2117N 06942W 6914 03193 0035 +082 //// 145044 044 045 003 01
163200 2119N 06942W 6916 03194 0045 +075 //// 144041 042 044 006 01
163230 2121N 06942W 6914 03196 0047 +075 //// 146043 043 046 005 01
163300 2124N 06942W 6916 03199 0043 +075 //// 148043 044 044 005 01
163330 2126N 06942W 6914 03197 0045 +076 //// 141045 047 042 006 05
163400 2128N 06942W 6918 03195 0050 +073 //// 135047 047 044 006 01
163430 2130N 06943W 6913 03200 0046 +077 //// 137045 046 044 005 01
163500 2132N 06943W 6916 03200 0043 +079 //// 140045 046 044 007 01
163530 2134N 06944W 6915 03197 0038 +083 //// 143047 048 044 009 01
163600 2136N 06945W 6912 03204 0038 +082 //// 143048 049 042 005 01
163630 2138N 06945W 6917 03195 0038 +082 //// 143047 048 041 001 01
163700 2140N 06946W 6917 03198 0031 +089 +084 142045 046 041 000 03
163730 2142N 06946W 6913 03201 0034 +086 +083 142045 045 041 000 03
163800 2144N 06947W 6916 03201 0037 +085 +085 141045 046 042 000 03
163830 2146N 06948W 6911 03204 0036 +084 +083 141044 045 043 000 03
$$
;

[Sanibel]

I think the CDO behavior is making it look like Irene just took a big wobble west, but the surface is still right along NHC track.

[ObsessedMiami]

You know I don't mean to sound ugly, but I am watching the weather channel and I read things here, we have a hugh hurricane maybe even a 3 or 4 headed to NC (it could miss us yes but right now all models point to us) and all people can talk about is how its going to miss Florida! well good for Florida count your blessings but please focus on where its going and post so we can get the latest info that you people seem to know so well. I enjoy reading and learning from many folks on here but now it just seems unemportant all of a sudden. My son in law lived in Florida during Andrew he head in a closet, he's 29 years old and getting plenty worried. I told him yes we might get it but becasue of the difference in our coast and Florida for some reason we just dont seem to get hit as hard as Florida so hang put and we will see what happens. keep us informed please we are concerned up here!

You are right.

So, we do need to stop the FL talkin this thread and focus the attention of those currently in harms way in The Carolinas.

She makes a great point, one that I was considering myself (no one talking about the Bahamas and the Carolinsa much) but to suggest we stop talking about a particular area is not the answer. The way I see it, all the eastern seaboard is still in play. That said, I urge folks to help provide those in harms way with good info and prayers.

[Dave]

No problem KWT real life comes first...

Can someone pickup hdobs for awhile...artist has bad weather coming in.


I could use a break on graphics too if someone wants it?

[HurrMark]

What time is it supposed to start making the turn to to north? If it doesn't start turning this afternoon does anyone think the cone will be adjusted to the left and TS warnings issued for parts of FL?

the track will have to be adjusted if it keeps passing forecast points to the left.

What points has it been passing to the left? It has only been jogging more westward for a few hours...before then, it was tracking north of forecasted tracks.

[tolakram]

Final frame from the loop above, eye clearing out.

[Dave]

[clfenwi]

I can pickup HDOBs for now.

[Steve H.]

Aric, I haven't been able to keep up. Has it passed any forecast points to the left yet?

[Blown Away]

So Aric you think they may force the hand and put up watches on FL if it keeps goin west?

Ive been debating on what would be a good call.. if for some odd reason it gets close enough for hurricane force winds.. wouldn't evacs be prudent. its already inside 3 days so not sure what they would do. you can have a cat 4 brush the coast with no evacs .. its very tough call at the moment. because all it takes is a wobble to the west more for a few hours each day and its basically going to be on the florida coast. like with the 12z GFS only 75 or so miles of palm beach. say for instance that track verifies except the 12 hours before it wobbles more wnw for a few hours . so at 12 mph for 3 hours lets say that 36 miles closer and now the hurricane force winds are on the coast. they had better be as certain as they can its going to turn today or many people are possibly going to be screwed

The 12z GFS was more like 125+ miles E of WPB, not 75.

[emeraldislencguy]

dont forget about us in nc and points north
do yall think the 5 pm advisory will trend more east or west

[bexar]

I expect weakening in the next advisory, perhaps 75 KT? Irene has been sheared badly.

[Dave]

I can pickup HDOBs for now.

Go for it...need someone on graphics now...I'm gonna be a basket case soon if I don't sleep.

[Sanibel]

We'll be able to track it better when the eye clears out.

[ozonepete]

dont forget about us in nc and points north
do yall think the 5 pm advisory will trend more east or west

If Irene stays on or very close to the current forecast track they will probably not change it much at all. That puts eastern N.C. directly in the path of a major hurricane. Hope you all are finishing all preps and have plans in place.

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