ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[FireRat]

I know this may sound funny, but I think we should also pay attention to the animals as they can feel a storm coming 1-2 days prior.

[Aric Dunn]

So Aric you think they may force the hand and put up watches on FL if it keeps goin west?

Ive been debating on what would be a good call.. if for some odd reason it gets close enough for hurricane force winds.. wouldn't evacs be prudent. its already inside 3 days so not sure what they would do. you can have a cat 4 brush the coast with no evacs .. its very tough call at the moment. because all it takes is a wobble to the west more for a few hours each day and its basically going to be on the florida coast. like with the 12z GFS only 75 or so miles of palm beach. say for instance that track verifies except the 12 hours before it wobbles more wnw for a few hours . so at 12 mph for 3 hours lets say that 36 miles closer and now the hurricane force winds are on the coast. they had better be as certain as they can its going to turn today or many people are possibly going to be screwed

The 12z GFS was more like 125+ miles E of WPB, not 75.

its transversed grand bahama islands which is 70miles offshore west palm. so what maybe since it was more on the eastern side of the island lets say 90 miles ..

[CronkPSU]

here is the 11 PM track...looks about on track to me...not that big a difference

[tolakram]

I expect weakening in the next advisory, perhaps 75 KT? Irene has been sheared badly.

Recon shows a deepening system, latest visible shows the eye clearing out. The plane (sometimes known as the 'special plane' ) is in the system right now.

Where do you get your information? In a big storm shear analysis, IMO, is suspect.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231649
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 24 20110823
163900 2148N 06948W 6915 03199 0039 +082 //// 141044 045 045 002 05
163930 2150N 06949W 6910 03207 0042 +081 //// 141044 045 044 000 05
164000 2153N 06949W 6914 03203 0045 +080 //// 141046 047 045 000 05
164030 2154N 06950W 6910 03208 0050 +080 //// 139048 048 /// /// 05
164100 2155N 06953W 6918 03196 0046 +079 //// 139046 046 049 000 05
164130 2155N 06955W 6913 03201 0045 +080 //// 141043 044 048 000 05
164200 2154N 06956W 6912 03200 0042 +080 //// 139043 045 047 001 05
164230 2153N 06958W 6919 03192 0040 +082 +078 139040 041 048 000 03
164300 2151N 06959W 6914 03199 0039 +082 +072 138038 039 047 000 03
164330 2150N 07001W 6913 03200 0039 +081 +077 135038 039 048 004 00
164400 2149N 07002W 6914 03195 0041 +080 +078 133040 042 047 004 00
164430 2148N 07003W 6913 03200 0037 +080 +078 132042 044 045 001 00
164500 2146N 07005W 6918 03190 0038 +079 //// 131044 045 044 007 01
164530 2145N 07006W 6916 03194 0038 +077 //// 127043 044 043 004 01
164600 2144N 07007W 6915 03192 0037 +079 //// 126045 045 043 001 01
164630 2142N 07009W 6915 03191 0038 +078 //// 125045 045 044 004 01
164700 2141N 07010W 6917 03189 0040 +075 +074 126045 045 045 008 00
164730 2140N 07011W 6914 03189 0047 +067 //// 127045 045 047 008 01
164800 2139N 07013W 6913 03187 0047 +067 //// 128047 048 048 007 01
164830 2137N 07014W 6914 03184 0049 +064 //// 129048 049 048 010 01
$$

[bexar]

I expect weakening in the next advisory, perhaps 75 KT? Irene has been sheared badly.

Recon shows a deepening system, latest visible shows the eye clearing out. The plane (sometimes known as the 'special plane' ) is in the system right now.

Where do you get your information? In a big storm shear analysis, IMO, is suspect.

according to NHC it is under 10-20 KT shear?

[petit_bois]

dont forget about us in nc and points north
do yall think the 5 pm advisory will trend more east or west

the trend is your friend... the overall trend says east.

[SouthDadeFish]

The anticyclone that was closer/over Irene is now well displaced to the southwest. 15-20 knots of shear is causing the system to have a lopsided look. The trough is helping to push dry air into the circulation, which can be seen as numerous outflow boundaries are evident on the W side Irene. SHIPS isn't forecasting shear to drop all that much until like 30 hours from now. To be honest i really doubt she is a cat 2 anymore. Just my opinion.

[tolakram]

according to NHC it is under 10-20 KT shear?

According to the NHC 10-20KT of shear was analyzed. 10 is not enough to keep a system from strengthening, and shear analysis is sometimes wrong. Regardless, look at what's happening now since recon is in the system. Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to make.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

Someone pickup graphics for awhile...I need a break....back later tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

I expect weakening in the next advisory, perhaps 75 KT? Irene has been sheared badly.

Recon shows a deepening system, latest visible shows the eye clearing out. The plane (sometimes known as the 'special plane' ) is in the system right now.

Where do you get your information? In a big storm shear analysis, IMO, is suspect.

according to NHC it is under 10-20 KT shear?

thats really not terrible. Its marginal, but the storm is still deepening so I really dont see where youre getting the idea that the storm is weakening.

And to the comment about the eastward trend, Im not sure what I'd expect. I havent seen models yet this morning but Im guessing theyre trending a little eastward, but the storm itself is passing forecast points to the south atm, so it seems to me like its a little up in the air.

[deltadog03]

****CURRENT**** Steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[bexar]

The anticyclone that was closer/over Irene is now well displaced to the southwest. 15-20 knots of shear is causing the system to have a lopsided look. The trough is helping to push dry air into the circulation, which can be seen as numerous outflow boundaries are evident on the W side Irene. SHIPS isn't forecasting shear to drop all that much until like 30 hours from now. To be honest i really doubt she is a cat 2 anymore. Just my opinion.

if this holds true then I guess she would probably not reach major status anymore.


this is turning out to be a luckluster season again.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

After looking at the WV loop, I just don't see the 10-20 KTS of shear over the hurricane. Looks to me that an upper high is established over the hurricane. So, I'm sticking with my thoughts that Irene will continue to intensify, especially so once Irene clears Haiti.....MGC

[Riptide]

The anticyclone that was closer/over Irene is now well displaced to the southwest. 15-20 knots of shear is causing the system to have a lopsided look. The trough is helping to push dry air into the circulation, which can be seen as numerous outflow boundaries are evident on the W side Irene. SHIPS isn't forecasting shear to drop all that much until like 30 hours from now. To be honest i really doubt she is a cat 2 anymore. Just my opinion.

It's interesting that this weakening phase coincided with a visible eye. Don't see it lasting for more than 6 hours.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231659
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 25 20110823
164900 2136N 07016W 6914 03185 0042 +065 //// 129049 050 047 009 01
164930 2135N 07017W 6914 03184 0030 +075 //// 127045 046 049 008 01
165000 2134N 07018W 6916 03180 0025 +078 +076 124046 047 048 009 00
165030 2132N 07020W 6916 03181 0023 +071 //// 122047 050 047 010 01
165100 2131N 07021W 6920 03170 0024 +074 //// 120047 049 048 007 01
165130 2130N 07023W 6914 03178 0019 +079 //// 121044 046 049 006 01
165200 2128N 07024W 6917 03174 0023 +075 //// 120044 045 049 009 01
165230 2127N 07025W 6916 03173 0016 +078 //// 120044 045 049 007 01
165300 2126N 07027W 6914 03172 0010 +079 //// 120045 045 051 005 01
165330 2124N 07028W 6914 03171 0011 +078 //// 120043 044 049 006 01
165400 2123N 07030W 6920 03161 0006 +077 //// 122043 044 049 007 01
165430 2122N 07031W 6912 03172 //// +074 //// 124036 040 050 011 01
165500 2120N 07032W 6914 03166 //// +073 //// 134037 040 052 010 01
165530 2119N 07034W 6913 03159 //// +074 //// 134045 047 052 009 01
165600 2118N 07035W 6915 03155 //// +068 //// 127050 054 052 011 01
165630 2117N 07036W 6916 03156 //// +071 //// 131053 055 052 010 01
165700 2115N 07038W 6909 03165 //// +079 //// 133051 054 053 008 01
165730 2114N 07039W 6918 03144 9970 +089 //// 130046 048 052 006 01
165800 2113N 07040W 6913 03154 9968 +094 +087 130045 048 052 004 00
165830 2112N 07042W 6917 03145 9966 +090 //// 127047 049 053 006 01
$$

[tolakram]

SHIPS isn't forecasting shear to drop all that much until like 30 hours from now. To be honest i really doubt she is a cat 2 anymore. Just my opinion.

RECON is IN the system, measuring a drop in pressure.

[SouthFloridawx]

To Aric's credit, Grand Bahama Island is less than 70 miles away from WPB.

[ozonepete]

I expect weakening in the next advisory, perhaps 75 KT? Irene has been sheared badly.

Recon shows a deepening system, latest visible shows the eye clearing out. The plane (sometimes known as the 'special plane' ) is in the system right now.

Where do you get your information? In a big storm shear analysis, IMO, is suspect.

according to NHC it is under 10-20 KT shear?

the NHC said that CIMSS analysis shows that, but that is somewhat subjective and far from the last word. Shear changes fairly quickly, and as Mark said, with big storms the analysis is suspect because the strong winds in and around the storm can make it difficult for the models to separate those from nearby shear.

[alch97]

It does seem on the visible and IR that it's moving a little more to the west. I guess that's a wobble?