ATL: IRENE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.29 LAT: 27.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.79

Peaks Just E of Gran Bahama in 60 Hrs as a Cat 4...

[ROCK]

I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.

whats going to stop her? aint going to be heat content...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[clfenwi]

clefnwi, where do you find that output for the HWRF model?

I get the stats files from here: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hur/prod/ and wind swath graphics from here: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

[ROCK]

HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.29 LAT: 27.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.79

Peaks Just E of Gran Bahama in 60 Hrs as a Cat 4...

that is a monster...

[SouthFloridawx]

clefnwi, where do you find that output for the HWRF model?

I get the stats files from here: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hur/prod/

Do you create your own graphics?

[BigA]

What is disconcerting about the GFS, HWRF, and GFS is that they all yank the storm northward after the Outer Banks. You don't get the typical sideswipe and out to see, but rather a direct hit on the Mid-Atlantic.

[micktooth]

Great discussion from Dr Masters at Wunderground regarding models:

A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (8am EDT) runs of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 27 nm
24 hours: 44 nm
36 hours: 64 nm
48 hours: 81 nm
72 hours: 137 nm
96 hours: 201 nm
120 hours: 308 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 79 nm
48 hours: 98 nm
72 hours: 144 nm
96 hours: 190 nm
120 hours: 239 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Irene are better than average over the 1 - 3 day time period, and worse than average for 4 - 5 days. Note the error estimate of 308 nm (355 miles) for today's 5-day forecast. That's more than the distance from New York City to Boston, suggesting that we really don't know what portions of New England might be at most risk from Irene. It is still quite possible the core of the hurricane could miss New England.

[clfenwi]

GFDL Swath



SouthFloridawx, I didn't quite grasp you question at first. Graphics come from Dr. Ryan Maue's siteat FSU.

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.

whats going to stop her? aint going to be heat content...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Just my personal opinion. Kind of using Floyd as a comparison storm here and it weakened dramatically. As well as just about every other hurricane that tries to hit the US as a cat 3 . We will see, for the mid Atlantic I hope I'm right!

[Aric Dunn]

hmm that NNW turn is intriguing..

obviously nothing to pick it up really still just the weakness and the ridge to the east.

[BensonTCwatcher]

intriguging as in trainwreck?

[deltadog03]

It better start moving NW fairly soon.....

[Meteorcane]

It is moving NW about 310 i think.

[sfwx]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[hurricaneCW]

These model runs are beginning to get a bit scary, there's been runs in the past that have a hurricane getting up here, but we are in that 4-5 day time range now and the accuracy slowly goes up. We just had an earthquake in Virginia, imagine a hurricane up here too in the same week.

[sicktght311]

Up here in NY we felt the earthquake as well, but i just thought it was my car misfiring.

With the latest 12z GFS run, this storm is looking very angry, and seems to have its eye set on the outer banks, then across long island. Pretty sure that if we take a direct hit (long island) from at least a cat 1, fire island will now be an inlet.

Watching this afternoon and tonight's models very intently.

[SouthFloridawx]

clfenwi, you answered my question. Thank you!

[tolakram]

Saved images, gfdl

[mascpa]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

8:00 AM 20.6. 70.6. 2:00PM 20.8, 71.2. I think it is moving more west, and slower, that currently indicated. But that is sure to change.