ATL: IRENE - Models

[fox13weather]

I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.

Landfall? If there is a landfall.

[tolakram]

HWRF saved images

[GTStorm]

this might be old news...but the 12Z GFDL and HWRF are very close to each other, both hitting the OBX, and then and straighten out almost due north (rather than continuing on an accerated NNE or NE trek as is usually the case)...what feature would cause this?

[ROCK]

GFDL run would seriously catch some people off guard who are not used to hurricanes...would be devestating to the infrastructure. I have been all over that area. Trees are green and over grown not dead like in Texas..the power grid is shotty at best. really be a bad deal...

[tolakram]

saved images, CMC

[Meteorcane]

Wow models look very similar to NHC track appears like at this point there is a pretty good consensus of a NE NC landfall with substantial impacts in states farther north.

[Jevo]

We should be getting the Euro here in about 20 mins..

[tolakram]

saved images, GFS

[UpTheCreek]

I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.

Landfall? If there is a landfall.

fox13weather, I must have missed your forecast. Can you provide a link to it? I am very curious why you think this won't have a landfall. Given that the NHC's landfall is going directly over my house, I'd love to be relieved by your knowledge!

[sunnyday]

Good luck to everyone in Irene's path. Prepare now! Don't wait until tomorrow,even.
Once again, Fl is fortunate. Thank you, Lord!

[OuterBanker]

Fox 13 is like a lot of others that thought models would keep going east. Now the models have setteled down and prettty much been consistant last few runs. Not out to sea. Euro has stayed put with a really bad scenario.

[L1GSXR750]

I live in Virginia Beach what are the models saying as far as intensity goes? Worst case scenario? I'm just trying to figure out if I should stay. Thanks!

[rainstorm]

just my 2 cents on the models. they shifted east 4/5 days in advance. could be a sign this east trend may be over.

[Meteorcane]

just my 2 cents on the models. they shifted east 4/5 days in advance. could be a sign this east trend may be over.

I don't understand your question?

[tolakram]

I live in Virginia Beach what are the models saying as far as intensity goes? Worst case scenario? I'm just trying to figure out if I should stay. Thanks!

Difficult to predict but the two hurricane models show around 90MPH for the VB area, it looks like. Depends on land interaction and if it tracks over you or not.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

just my 2 cents on the models. they shifted east 4/5 days in advance. could be a sign this east trend may be over.

I don't understand your question?

I don't think it was a question. They were just saying they think the eastward shifts may be done...

[SouthFloridawx]

I'd get prepared if you live in Coastal North Carolina the whole way through Coastal New England. Monitor your Local News and always follow your local National Weather Service.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I live in Virginia Beach what are the models saying as far as intensity goes? Worst case scenario? I'm just trying to figure out if I should stay. Thanks!

Looks like a cat 3, maybe a 4, if the centre stays over water going by the various model runs when the core of Irene gets closest to your position. Mind you, this is JUST what the models are showing and we all know intensity is still a sore spot with the models. Listen to your local mets, I'm sure they keep you update as the time grows nearer.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Lowpressure]

I'd get prepared if you live in Coastal North Carolina the whole way through Coastal New England. Monitor your Local News and always follow your local National Weather Service.

Living on the coast, you should be prepared every hurricane season. I would say be vigilant anywhere on the coast until she moves. Basically stalled now with so many fluid dynamics taking place. Nothing is in stone yet.

[rainstorm]

just my 2 cents on the models. they shifted east 4/5 days in advance. could be a sign this east trend may be over.

I don't understand your question?

not a question. just saying it has time to possibly shift back.