GFS has it curving away from US at 276 hours

[Stephanie]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

There is no way that this will take 12 days to make it to the us mainland. GFS is way too slow with this track as the ridge will be remaining strong to the north

[obxhurricane]

I don't understand all the certainty some folks have in long range charts. :?

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_276.shtml

Not quite recurving...it gets absorbed into the next TC. This, IMO is bunk. There are not going to be 2 1004MB cyclones ~11 degrees apart.

Also, Derek is correct. This pattern and Ridge placement/strength will keep things moving....at least until the TC makes it east of FL (presuming that's where it is).

Wild ride.

Scott

[Scott_inVA]

I don't understand all the certainty some folks have in long range charts. :?

Can speak for no one but myself, obx...my comments should illustrate vagaries and not certainties of LR modeling. Just follow trends.

Scott

[obxhurricane]

I was not reffering to you Scott. I'm with you, the best course of action is to just follow the trends. It seems there a lot of people who like to look at the long range charts of the GFS and assume it is correct. Just makes no since to me.

[Stormchaser16]

I agree with Scott, the GFS idea is CRAP and nothing short of it.......... It isnt initializing the system well enough to make a good track for it, look at the setup. People that use models for their face value are the ones that are gonna fail. Put your certainty into the trends and the patterns of the models!!!!! Then u will become a much better forecaster and model interpreter.

It's like in winter when one run of GFS shows 20 inches in northern jersey and the next it moves it back south and some people in northern jersey flip out, like OMG OMG im nto getting that snow, WAKE UP and look at the pattern and the trends, only model huggers take them face value. That is why i plan to be a much better forecaster this winter, because i have been using the models CORRECTLY this summer and so far have been pretty accurate in my forecasts.

[Stephanie]

I don't understand all the certainty some folks have in long range charts. :?

I don't have ANY certainty with these models. But, without them, we wouldn't have much to talk about on this board. We're all using the various models to speculate and develope our own forecasts.

Derek - They've had this system hitting the SE coast at 10 -12 days for the last two!

[Stephanie]

I was not reffering to you Scott. I'm with you, the best course of action is to just follow the trends. It seems there a lot of people who like to look at the long range charts of the GFS and assume it is correct. Just makes no since to me.

I'm not an expert obnx - are you? I believe that there have been quite of few of our experts here that have been referring to models and making their own decisions. Alot of us are just interested in weather and never pretend to be experts.

[Stormchaser16]

Models CAN be a very reliable tool if you use them correctly, know their biases, follow their trends, see if their outputs are possible based on current patterns. Sometimes a little guesswork and intuition based on prior knowledge needs to be used. You gotta look at ALL the models and follow ALL their trends. Dont take it for face value, dont change your forecast with every run, see what the setup is, pick it apart, look at what else the model has to offer besides just a plain QPF chart. Well theres my little hints on how to use a model correctly. When i use models in my forecasts, its only because ive probably spent the last hour or so picking it apart.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is my least favorable model. One good reaosn wa sits initialization of Hurricane Georges, which has screwed up a simulation that myself and a grad student are working on to study two different aspects of the system (the intensity --myself, and topography --Cangialosi)

GFS was so bad that we are having to try and redo the initial ocnditions by hand. Ugh!

[Stephanie]

I remember HOW WELL the GFS performed during the winter too!

Can someone provide me with links to the ETA, Euro, etc., that provide long range forecasts and maps? The NWS only provides up to 4 days maximum for the ETA (I believe), though the GFS (which to them and TWC is gospel) goes out 16 days.

Thanks!

[Stormchaser16]

Well there is the ETAx which goes out to 156.......And the EURO can go out to day 10(however past day 7 its only a height read map, which doesnt tell ya anything, at least not in this season).

http://www.uga.edu/atsc/wx/dtx_eta_xx.htm

Heres the link to extended ETA

[obxhurricane]

I didn't mean to offend you Stephanie, I apologize if I did. It is fun to look at the models and speculate, and yes the GFS has it turning away in 276 hours. It will almost certainly have an entirely different solution for the same time period by this time tomorrow...that was the point I was trying to make.

Again, let me apologize if I came across too harsh.

[Stephanie]

I didn't mean to offend you Stephanie, I apologize if I did. It is fun to look at the models and speculate, and yes the GFS has it turning away in 276 hours. It will almost certainly have an entirely different solution for the same time period by this time tomorrow...that was the point I was trying to make.

Again, let me apologize if I came across too harsh.

You did, and I accept the apology. I guess I got alittle ticked especially when you had said "I wasn't referring to you Scott", so who else were you referring too? Anyway, water under the bridge.

Thanks Stormchaser for the link!