ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

So Aric, is that trough you were talking about digging enough now or not really?

[tolakram]

[MGC]

969mb is a fairly low CP for a Cat-1....could the wind field be expanding????.....MGC

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KWBC 232301
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 19 20110823
225130 2045N 07111W 7526 02426 9950 +139 +122 204049 049 043 001 00
225200 2044N 07109W 7525 02432 9954 +141 +119 208047 049 044 003 00
225230 2043N 07107W 7505 02461 9958 +138 +135 204046 047 045 010 00
225300 2042N 07105W 7508 02459 9963 +135 +137 207047 048 046 009 00
225330 2041N 07104W 7514 02454 9962 +137 //// 209045 047 052 021 01
225400 2040N 07102W 7505 02463 9971 +126 //// 194051 054 053 033 01
225430 2039N 07100W 7511 02458 9967 +135 +131 189050 052 049 033 00
225500 2038N 07058W 7515 02457 9973 +134 +131 191049 050 044 017 00
225530 2037N 07057W 7517 02460 9978 +135 +130 196048 049 042 009 00
225600 2036N 07055W 7510 02471 9980 +135 +134 200047 049 038 009 00
225630 2035N 07053W 7518 02465 9987 +132 +132 200048 049 038 009 00
225700 2034N 07051W 7517 02467 9992 +128 +132 197048 049 034 007 00
225730 2033N 07049W 7518 02469 9992 +131 //// 194046 046 035 007 01
225800 2032N 07048W 7519 02469 9993 +131 //// 194046 046 035 004 01
225830 2031N 07046W 7519 02470 9996 +131 //// 195044 045 032 003 01
225900 2030N 07044W 7518 02472 9996 +132 +136 197046 046 029 004 00
225930 2029N 07042W 7519 02472 9997 +132 +135 193046 049 028 002 00
230000 2028N 07040W 7520 02474 9997 +135 +134 192046 049 029 004 00
230030 2027N 07039W 7523 02472 9998 +134 +138 190047 048 028 006 00
230100 2026N 07037W 7520 02475 9999 +134 +138 191042 048 028 004 00

[KWT]

MGC, quite possibly, it is forecasted to become quite a large hurricane, how are the winds on the eastern side, do we know, wouldn't shock me if this is back upto a category-2 now.

Only going to get stronger as it pulls away from Hispaniola.

[NC George]

Thank you NC George ( I like the pic) and nc weather wizard. Unfortunately my cousin is extremely hard headed. He has been through quite a few storms living there. He lives on a stretch of beach similar to your picture. I am guessing he might leave at the very last minute, keeping my fingers crossed. You guys also stay safe!

If he's been there through a few, and knows what to expect, and is prepared to deal with it, then I wouldn't worry so much. The one thing to remember is, you can't leave at the last minute. Chances are the road will overwash just N of Rodanthe, filling it with sand at a minimum. Plus they will shut down the Bonner Bridge that links the island he is on with the one to the north (actually a long spit of sand that goes up to VA) and is the only way off.

[blazess556]

Loop the infrared. the eye is about to pop out/

[tolakram]

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232310
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 10 20110823
230000 1957N 06805W 6409 03856 0078 +045 -012 188036 038 032 000 00
230030 1959N 06807W 6414 03851 0079 +045 -021 190040 042 028 001 00
230100 2001N 06809W 6408 03853 0079 +046 -023 183038 040 028 001 00
230130 2002N 06811W 6405 03858 0075 +046 -035 189037 038 029 001 00
230200 2004N 06813W 6412 03847 0085 +039 -003 191038 041 031 001 00
230230 2006N 06815W 6450 03794 0096 +029 +026 184039 040 032 003 00
230300 2007N 06817W 6446 03797 0082 +040 +015 179039 040 033 000 00
230330 2009N 06819W 6442 03803 0075 +044 -003 177040 041 033 000 00
230400 2011N 06821W 6442 03805 0070 +047 -002 182038 040 031 000 00
230430 2013N 06823W 6443 03803 0066 +048 -001 180034 034 032 000 00
230500 2015N 06825W 6440 03807 0068 +046 +000 180035 036 032 000 00
230530 2016N 06827W 6445 03801 0070 +045 +004 178037 037 033 000 00
230600 2018N 06829W 6443 03801 0073 +045 +020 179036 037 033 000 00
230630 2020N 06831W 6443 03803 0071 +042 +031 179035 036 034 000 00
230700 2022N 06833W 6443 03802 0071 +042 +019 178037 038 034 000 00
230730 2024N 06836W 6443 03800 0074 +041 +025 177039 040 034 000 00
230800 2025N 06838W 6444 03796 0074 +038 +035 183044 046 036 000 00
230830 2027N 06840W 6446 03796 0067 +041 +030 185045 046 036 000 00
230900 2027N 06840W 6446 03796 0069 +041 +027 182044 044 036 000 00
230930 2031N 06844W 6443 03795 0069 +040 +027 178044 045 037 000 00
$$
;

[Recurve]

Cant believe how the tail is causing another convection blowup over Puerto Rico. You don't get a break when the tail drags over you.



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[JTE50]

I'm out here on Abaco Bahamas on the easternmost island called Elbow Key - a place called Hope Town. Had to take a Ferry Ride out to get here from Marsh Harbor - about 6 mies. I'll let you folks know what happens. We have WiFi out here - until the power goes out!

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Loop the infrared. the eye is about to pop out/

Thats certainly worth keeping an eye out for (no pun intended!)

[Stephanie]

You are not kidding, especially if the center is really close. In 1992 we had a nor'easter with ENE winds sustained around 50 -6o mph and brief 80-90 mph gusts for an hour and parts of southern Manhattan along the two rivers went under water. The water stopped just before the NY Stock Exchange. I was working there and personally saw 2 very large windows pop out of the 30th floor of a skyscraper on Water Street on the SE side of the island. It took weeks to clean that up. Anything even a little stronger would flood the Trade Center site and most of southern Manhattan. Brooklyn's entire shore including Coney Island would be under water as well. Also, the Jersey shore would be devastated by this track - no more Snooki (ok, joke) - they have serious erosion problems just from 60 mph nor'easters. So it's early yet and I never have trusted a track more than 3 days out, but I dread if this is still the forecast on Thursday.

It REALLY won't be good for the New Jersey shore. The buildup along the shore with the houses, condos AND casinos really is not a good scenerio by a long shot.

[cycloneye]

Cant believe how the tail is causing another convection blowup over Puerto Rico. You don't get a break when the tail drags over you.

The tail of Irene has dumped "so far" between 15-20 inches and counting. I am posting reports at the aftermath thread at the top of forum and at the Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread.

[BigB0882]

We were in the tail of either Rita or Ike, now I can't remember, I think it was Ike. We got more rain from that storm than they did in Beaumont or areas near the eye.

[KWT]

Wow thats frankly an amazing amount of rain Cycloneye, I'm always impressed by those sorts of amounts.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KWBC 232311
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 20 20110823
230130 2025N 07035W 7471 02532 9996 +135 //// 180034 036 033 013 01
230200 2024N 07033W 7532 02463 9993 +141 +140 183031 032 028 007 00
230230 2023N 07032W 7558 02435 9998 +140 +144 185031 036 026 006 03
230300 2022N 07030W 7518 02478 9990 +144 +142 201035 039 035 007 03
230330 2021N 07028W 7508 02493 0002 +137 +126 201039 041 049 014 00
230400 2020N 07026W 7502 02486 9985 +138 //// 196042 044 040 039 05
230430 2019N 07024W 7483 02513 9992 +133 //// 197043 046 045 017 05
230500 2018N 07022W 7515 02484 9995 +140 +132 195042 043 045 007 00
230530 2017N 07021W 7514 02486 9994 +145 +126 195041 044 044 001 00
230600 2016N 07019W 7515 02486 9995 +147 +115 190037 037 043 001 00
230630 2015N 07017W 7517 02486 9998 +146 +117 187035 037 041 001 00
230700 2014N 07016W 7517 02488 0000 +146 +118 189034 034 042 000 00
230730 2013N 07014W 7514 02493 0008 +139 +121 189030 031 041 000 00
230800 2012N 07012W 7516 02494 0012 +139 +124 185029 030 040 000 00
230830 2011N 07011W 7511 02499 0016 +133 +128 175025 026 041 000 00
230900 2010N 07009W 7513 02496 0013 +137 +124 180026 027 041 000 00
230930 2009N 07007W 7515 02494 0009 +142 +122 183026 026 041 000 00
231000 2008N 07005W 7514 02500 0015 +139 +123 178024 025 /// /// 03
231030 2009N 07003W 7516 02499 0017 +137 +124 186029 031 /// /// 03
231100 2011N 07002W 7517 02496 0017 +136 +123 181033 033 039 001 03

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232320
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 11 20110823
231000 2032N 06846W 6441 03794 0064 +044 +025 178045 045 037 000 00
231030 2034N 06848W 6443 03794 0062 +045 +030 179046 047 038 000 00
231100 2036N 06850W 6446 03793 0062 +045 +020 180045 046 039 000 03
231130 2038N 06852W 6443 03795 0064 +041 +019 178045 045 038 000 03
231200 2040N 06854W 6442 03791 0064 +040 +021 176046 047 037 001 00
231230 2041N 06857W 6443 03789 0068 +040 +025 175047 048 037 000 03
231300 2043N 06859W 6443 03792 0073 +032 //// 176048 049 038 000 01
231330 2045N 06901W 6444 03789 //// +029 //// 174048 049 038 001 01
231400 2047N 06903W 6444 03789 0058 +040 //// 170044 045 039 000 01
231430 2049N 06905W 6443 03789 0050 +046 +043 169040 041 040 000 03
231500 2051N 06907W 6444 03784 0048 +046 +045 172040 040 040 000 00
231530 2052N 06909W 6442 03785 0046 +045 //// 174039 039 040 000 05
231600 2054N 06911W 6443 03787 0043 +046 //// 177040 041 039 000 01
231630 2056N 06914W 6443 03781 0042 +048 //// 178039 040 039 000 01
231700 2058N 06916W 6446 03779 0040 +049 //// 179037 038 040 000 01
231730 2059N 06918W 6442 03781 0034 +050 //// 177035 036 041 001 01
231800 2101N 06920W 6443 03780 0035 +050 //// 175034 034 041 000 01
231830 2103N 06922W 6444 03779 0035 +045 //// 175034 035 043 001 01
231900 2105N 06924W 6441 03788 0026 +053 //// 174033 034 044 000 05
231930 2107N 06926W 6442 03786 0028 +055 //// 173033 034 043 000 05
$$
;

Looks like the Air Force plane is going for a NW to SE pass.

[HurricaneBrain]

If Irene keeps it up, I don't see why it couldn't hit Cat. 4 status. Get prepared Eastern U.S. coast, you are in for a big one!