ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[MBryant]

Isn't the Gulf Stream a very narrow band of hot water and isn't most of the projected path well to the east of it?

[tolakram]

Goodnight Irene. Best of luck to those in it's path, stay safe!

[HurricaneBrain]

Isn't the Gulf Stream a very narrow band of hot water and isn't most of the projected path well to the east of it?

Yes, lets hope that it doesn't cross those very warm waters!

[KWT]

If Irene keeps it up, I don't see why it couldn't hit Cat. 4 status. Get prepared Eastern U.S. coast, you are in for a big one!

Agreed I see no reason why it can't get to 115-120kts either at the moment. T&C Islands in the way, probably going to get a hit from a category-2 hurricane...

[Cainer]

Not sure where the vortex message is for the NOAA plane's pass through the centre...

[tolakram]

Unfortunately I can't continue the graphics tonight.

[drezee]

Ladies and Gentlemen,
We have the "fist!" I was waiting for it! Irene should rapidly intensify over the next 18-24 hours, if the theory holds true! It has not been wrong yet!!!

Initial NOAA pass looks like the pressure has fallen even more. The AF302 flight will let us know if it has indeed started...

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232330
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 12 20110823
232000 2108N 06928W 6444 03781 0022 +056 //// 168030 031 041 000 05
232030 2110N 06930W 6442 03776 0023 +055 //// 163032 033 041 000 05
232100 2112N 06932W 6443 03780 0015 +062 +045 167029 030 042 000 00
232130 2114N 06935W 6443 03780 0019 +059 +043 168029 030 043 000 03
232200 2115N 06937W 6439 03782 0021 +055 +043 170031 031 042 001 03
232230 2117N 06939W 6446 03774 0024 +054 +044 169031 031 042 001 00
232300 2119N 06941W 6440 03780 0021 +054 +053 168033 034 043 000 00
232330 2121N 06943W 6443 03775 0012 +059 +052 170035 035 042 000 00
232400 2123N 06945W 6445 03774 0012 +060 +052 167034 035 042 000 03
232430 2124N 06947W 6443 03775 0005 +065 +034 167035 036 041 000 03
232500 2126N 06949W 6438 03781 0003 +064 +034 164039 040 040 000 00
232530 2128N 06952W 6447 03766 0002 +065 +043 162039 040 040 000 03
232600 2130N 06954W 6442 03774 0005 +063 +041 160038 038 040 000 03
232630 2132N 06956W 6445 03769 0010 +060 +039 157035 035 041 000 00
232700 2133N 06958W 6442 03772 0010 +061 +038 156033 033 041 000 03
232730 2135N 07000W 6464 03748 0015 +062 +045 152037 040 /// /// 03
232800 2138N 07001W 6605 03571 0017 +068 +061 147041 043 040 000 03
232830 2141N 07002W 6778 03354 0019 +078 +073 147044 046 040 000 03
232900 2143N 07003W 6947 03148 0018 +091 +073 147044 045 037 000 03
232930 2146N 07004W 6973 03120 0022 +092 +074 147045 045 037 000 00
$$
;

[Terry]

I'm out here on Abaco Bahamas on the easternmost island called Elbow Key - a place called Hope Town. Had to take a Ferry Ride out to get here from Marsh Harbor - about 6 mies. I'll let you folks know what happens. We have WiFi out here - until the power goes out!

I have a home and friends on Green Turtle. Bahamians are leaving the cays and you headed to them. I sure hope this isn't like Floyd or you will really regret your choice! Praying for no severe damage or injuries on the cays or big islands.

[KWT]

Ladies and Gentlemen,
We have the "fist!" I was waiting for it! Irene should rapidly intensify over the next 18-24 hours, if the theory holds true! It has not been wrong yet!!!

Initial NOAA pass looks like the pressure has fallen even more. The AF302 flight will let us know if it has indeed started...

I suspect your right and this will strengthen quite alot in the next 12-24hrs, it makes sense as it pulls away from Hispaniola.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane dropsonde suggests the pressure is 968mb.

[tolakram]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Interesting.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232340
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 13 20110823
233000 2148N 07005W 6975 03122 0025 +095 +075 146044 044 036 000 00
233030 2150N 07006W 6964 03133 0029 +090 +080 144042 042 037 000 00
233100 2152N 07007W 6967 03136 0038 +085 //// 142040 041 037 001 01
233130 2154N 07008W 6965 03133 0034 +085 //// 138040 040 037 002 01
233200 2156N 07009W 6968 03131 0035 +085 //// 136039 039 038 002 31
233230 2158N 07010W 6967 03134 0038 +085 //// 137040 041 039 002 01
233300 2200N 07010W 6968 03135 0039 +085 //// 139040 041 040 000 01
233330 2201N 07011W 6969 03132 0040 +085 //// 138041 042 038 002 01
233400 2203N 07012W 6968 03137 0042 +083 //// 139039 042 039 001 01
233430 2205N 07013W 6966 03136 0041 +083 //// 142036 037 039 002 01
233500 2207N 07014W 6967 03140 0043 +082 //// 144037 038 037 002 01
233530 2209N 07015W 6966 03132 //// +070 //// 142043 044 036 003 01
233600 2209N 07015W 6966 03132 0052 +075 //// 136041 043 036 004 01
233630 2213N 07016W 6965 03137 0056 +072 //// 142038 039 039 009 01
233700 2215N 07017W 6967 03134 //// +067 //// 131044 046 040 011 01
233730 2217N 07018W 6972 03132 //// +064 //// 126052 055 040 009 01
233800 2219N 07019W 6969 03152 //// +063 //// 125047 047 041 010 05
233830 2220N 07021W 6970 03149 //// +062 //// 116045 047 /// /// 05
233900 2219N 07022W 6973 03133 //// +057 //// 118046 048 045 011 05
233930 2217N 07024W 6962 03144 //// +074 //// 121042 043 042 009 01
$$
;

NOAA plane hasn't posted the last 2 sets of obs yet.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KWBC 232331
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 22 20110823
232130 2101N 07002W 7518 02490 0014 +135 +124 158042 043 039 003 00
232200 2103N 07002W 7519 02488 0013 +135 +120 155045 045 038 001 00
232230 2106N 07002W 7519 02487 0009 +139 +117 156044 045 039 001 00
232300 2108N 07002W 7518 02488 0006 +141 +115 156045 045 040 000 00
232330 2110N 07002W 7517 02489 0008 +140 +115 152043 043 040 000 00
232400 2113N 07002W 7518 02489 0012 +137 +115 150041 042 037 002 00
232430 2115N 07002W 7518 02493 0015 +136 +117 149042 043 037 001 00
232500 2118N 07002W 7517 02493 0016 +135 +112 148045 047 038 001 00
232530 2120N 07002W 7517 02492 0020 +129 +121 148047 048 037 001 00
232600 2122N 07002W 7518 02490 0019 +131 +118 148045 046 040 001 00
232630 2125N 07002W 7519 02488 0019 +130 +119 148046 047 040 002 00
232700 2127N 07002W 7520 02488 0019 +130 +122 147049 050 040 002 00
232730 2129N 07002W 7518 02492 0022 +129 +124 149048 050 041 003 00
232800 2132N 07002W 7519 02492 0023 +130 +121 145044 045 041 001 00
232830 2134N 07002W 7519 02495 0025 +131 +121 145048 049 041 001 00
232900 2137N 07002W 7520 02495 0029 +129 +120 143051 052 040 000 00
232930 2139N 07002W 7519 02496 0028 +130 +119 143049 050 040 001 00
233000 2141N 07002W 7520 02496 0030 +129 +121 145047 048 040 000 00
233030 2144N 07002W 7518 02500 0031 +129 +120 144047 048 039 000 00
233100 2146N 07002W 7518 02500 0034 +126 +120 144048 049 039 000 00

Missing ob 21.

[L1GSXR750]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Interesting.

Looks like an eye about to form. Also notice the storms forming at the bottom left of irenes outermost bands. Good outflow. Def looks to be strengthening.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232350
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 14 20110823
234000 2216N 07025W 6969 03137 //// +072 //// 127037 038 040 006 01
234030 2215N 07026W 6967 03139 0044 +081 //// 134034 035 039 005 01
234100 2213N 07028W 6964 03149 0051 +083 //// 133035 037 /// /// 05
234130 2212N 07027W 6969 03144 //// +080 //// 134040 040 /// /// 05
234200 2213N 07026W 6970 03140 //// +075 //// 134040 042 /// /// 05
234230 2215N 07025W 6966 03145 0051 +081 //// 131038 040 /// /// 05
234300 2216N 07027W 6967 03151 0051 +082 //// 132035 036 /// /// 05
234330 2215N 07028W 6965 03145 0051 +084 //// 133035 037 034 004 05
234400 2213N 07029W 6965 03137 0050 +079 //// 129040 041 036 005 05
234430 2212N 07030W 6964 03136 //// +078 //// 129039 041 038 005 01
234500 2210N 07031W 6967 03131 //// +075 //// 129041 042 038 004 01
234530 2209N 07033W 6970 03133 0033 +087 //// 132038 040 039 003 01
234600 2208N 07034W 6966 03135 0025 +093 +093 126035 036 039 001 00
234630 2207N 07035W 6967 03133 0024 +095 +089 126034 035 040 001 00
234700 2205N 07037W 6967 03136 0023 +095 +089 128037 039 040 001 00
234730 2204N 07038W 6969 03125 0022 +093 +090 129037 039 040 003 00
234800 2203N 07040W 6967 03130 0026 +089 //// 131038 039 040 003 01
234830 2201N 07041W 6967 03127 0024 +091 +085 133038 038 039 003 00
234900 2200N 07042W 6968 03128 0033 +083 //// 138038 038 039 005 01
234930 2159N 07044W 6967 03127 0026 +089 //// 141038 039 039 006 01
$$
;

Continue with the NOAA2 obs. I'll take over AF302.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232350
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 14 20110823
234000 2216N 07025W 6969 03137 //// +072 //// 127037 038 040 006 01
234030 2215N 07026W 6967 03139 0044 +081 //// 134034 035 039 005 01
234100 2213N 07028W 6964 03149 0051 +083 //// 133035 037 /// /// 05
234130 2212N 07027W 6969 03144 //// +080 //// 134040 040 /// /// 05
234200 2213N 07026W 6970 03140 //// +075 //// 134040 042 /// /// 05
234230 2215N 07025W 6966 03145 0051 +081 //// 131038 040 /// /// 05
234300 2216N 07027W 6967 03151 0051 +082 //// 132035 036 /// /// 05
234330 2215N 07028W 6965 03145 0051 +084 //// 133035 037 034 004 05
234400 2213N 07029W 6965 03137 0050 +079 //// 129040 041 036 005 05
234430 2212N 07030W 6964 03136 //// +078 //// 129039 041 038 005 01
234500 2210N 07031W 6967 03131 //// +075 //// 129041 042 038 004 01
234530 2209N 07033W 6970 03133 0033 +087 //// 132038 040 039 003 01
234600 2208N 07034W 6966 03135 0025 +093 +093 126035 036 039 001 00
234630 2207N 07035W 6967 03133 0024 +095 +089 126034 035 040 001 00
234700 2205N 07037W 6967 03136 0023 +095 +089 128037 039 040 001 00
234730 2204N 07038W 6969 03125 0022 +093 +090 129037 039 040 003 00
234800 2203N 07040W 6967 03130 0026 +089 //// 131038 039 040 003 01
234830 2201N 07041W 6967 03127 0024 +091 +085 133038 038 039 003 00
234900 2200N 07042W 6968 03128 0033 +083 //// 138038 038 039 005 01
234930 2159N 07044W 6967 03127 0026 +089 //// 141038 039 039 006 01
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

We'll see in a few minutes if the eastward trend has stopped for now, or if it's continuing to trend east.

[KWT]

Two things to note, firstly cloud tops are warming all around the system, but there is a real warm-up in the eye area now thats for sure.

[L1GSXR750]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Would that blue dot forming during the last frame be a possible eye? I am fairly new to this some opinions would be greatly appreciated!