ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

Stay safe Jim! You'll be in our prayers like everyone else in the Islands, and hopefully you're prepared and ready........

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone

I'll give you my two cents worth. I've studied historic East Coast Hurricanes making landfall north of 40 for nearly 20 years now. I've read every report and study I can get my hands on. Based upon everything I've read, 125 mph sustained seems to be the hard maxium limit if environmental conditions are "perfect" for a southern New England or Long Island landfall.

Thanks for the input....So more than likely a cat 1? since conditions probably won't be perfect?

[psyclone]

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40

ne of the center I believe[/quote]

Funny, I just asked the same thing in the recon discussion thread. What's the TS windfield look like to the west of the center?[/quote]
i bet it will drop off fast, especially in a non marine environment.[/quote]


What non-marine environment are you referring to? do you mean inland or irenes location? Because the bahamas is just about the same thing as being in the ocean. I do believe you mean the windfield will miss inland palm beach county?[/quote]
i am referring to the florida peninsula and the general fact that as a hurricane's ts force windfield impinges on a coastline it seems like it needs to reach a critical mass before ts force winds begin marching inland (ie maybe a 50mph onshore wind yields a 40mph wind a few miles from the coast. it seems like land really takes a toll quickly on sustained winds in a tc. must be those frictional forces we hear about. in any case i would bet against sustained ts force winds at this point anywhere in florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240140
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 25 20110824
013000 2128N 07236W 6967 03054 9923 +105 +079 053065 065 051 002 03
013030 2129N 07237W 6965 03063 9925 +110 +084 049062 063 051 001 00
013100 2130N 07238W 6965 03065 9925 +112 +084 047062 062 053 003 00
013130 2131N 07240W 6969 03066 9943 +103 +081 045062 062 053 005 00
013200 2133N 07241W 6965 03072 9946 +103 +083 047060 061 053 002 00
013230 2134N 07242W 6969 03076 9962 +093 +087 051058 059 051 004 00
013300 2135N 07243W 6968 03079 9979 +079 //// 054057 058 051 006 01
013330 2137N 07245W 6969 03082 //// +072 //// 056058 060 049 010 01
013400 2138N 07246W 6969 03088 //// +063 //// 051058 064 048 020 01
013430 2139N 07247W 6978 03077 //// +056 //// 046054 054 050 016 01
013500 2140N 07249W 6965 03091 0010 +068 //// 044055 055 047 009 01
013530 2142N 07250W 6967 03093 0002 +074 //// 039054 054 045 006 01
013600 2143N 07251W 6969 03096 9992 +087 +085 038055 056 046 006 00
013630 2144N 07252W 6967 03098 9998 +084 //// 036053 055 046 007 01
013700 2145N 07253W 6965 03101 9998 +085 +083 039048 050 046 008 00
013730 2146N 07255W 6967 03100 0001 +086 +080 040047 047 044 008 00
013800 2147N 07256W 6967 03104 9995 +092 +075 040047 048 045 008 00
013830 2149N 07257W 6967 03105 9993 +097 +069 038045 045 045 005 00
013900 2150N 07259W 6966 03107 9988 +103 +066 037045 045 043 002 00
013930 2151N 07300W 6969 03108 9982 +109 +062 038045 047 042 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 240139
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/01:19:20Z
B. 21 deg 04 min N
072 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2826 m
D. 61 kt
E. 122 deg 16 nm
F. 210 deg 86 kt
G. 124 deg 18 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 9 C / 3033 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E36/31/19
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NW QUAD 01:25:30Z
;

[bahamaswx]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

Stay safe.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

ConvergenceZone

I'll give you my two cents worth. I've studied historic East Coast Hurricanes making landfall north of 40 for nearly 20 years now. I've read every report and study I can get my hands on. Based upon everything I've read, 125 mph sustained seems to be the hard maxium limit if environmental conditions are "perfect" for a southern New England or Long Island landfall.

Thanks for the input....So more than likely a cat 1? since conditions probably won't be perfect?

It all depends what happens the next 72-96 hrs. Both the Long Island Express of 1938 and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 were estimated to have peaked at category five intensity just north of the Bahamas. Both storms made landfall near that environmental maximum of cat. three on Long Island/Southern New England. It all depends how strong Irene gets during the next three days, though imo a cat 2 at LI landfall certainly isn't out of the question.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 240139
XXAA 73238 99206 70709 08000 99998 26622 15031 00516 ///// /////
92670 22419 18549 85404 18825 19048 88999 77999
31313 09608 82256
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 28
62626 REL 2058N07088W 225628 SPG 2062N07088W 225951 WL150 15535 0
85 DLM WND 18545 997752 MBL WND 16039 EYEWALL 000=

XXBB 73238 99206 70709 08000 00998 26622 11985 25821 22891 20831
33752 12800
21212 00998 15031 11985 15538 22977 16037 33970 16043 44961 16039
55933 17552 66921 19045 77752 20048
31313 09608 82256
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 28
62626 REL 2058N07088W 225628 SPG 2062N07088W 225951 WL150 15535 0
85 DLM WND 18545 997752 MBL WND 16039 EYEWALL 000=

[lonelymike]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

WXMAN, in your OPINION, how strong of a cane do you think that Irene has the POTENTIAL of being when it gets as far North as Long Island(Assuming it Goes There)

He posted earlier about storm surge into NYC as a Cat 1-2 storm

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240141
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 35 20110824
013130 2256N 07218W 7503 02539 0065 +119 +119 085061 062 045 002 00
013200 2258N 07220W 7503 02539 0065 +120 +122 086059 060 045 003 00
013230 2259N 07222W 7503 02543 0064 +123 +120 087057 058 045 002 00
013300 2300N 07224W 7502 02544 0066 +123 +121 086054 055 045 004 00
013330 2302N 07226W 7503 02544 0067 +123 +118 086049 051 047 002 00
013400 2303N 07228W 7503 02549 0073 +123 +110 082052 053 047 001 00
013430 2305N 07230W 7504 02550 0077 +123 +103 078055 056 049 003 00
013500 2306N 07233W 7502 02554 0075 +128 +096 073053 054 047 001 00
013530 2307N 07235W 7503 02553 0073 +130 +095 071049 051 047 001 00
013600 2309N 07237W 7505 02551 0068 +136 +095 072047 048 046 002 00
013630 2310N 07239W 7506 02550 0058 +145 +086 071048 050 042 001 00
013700 2311N 07241W 7506 02549 0056 +149 +069 070048 048 041 001 00
013730 2312N 07243W 7506 02549 0055 +149 +070 069047 048 042 002 00
013800 2314N 07245W 7506 02549 0059 +145 +074 068047 047 043 001 00
013830 2315N 07247W 7506 02548 0062 +142 +076 069047 047 043 002 00
013900 2316N 07249W 7503 02553 0065 +141 +078 069044 044 042 001 00
013930 2317N 07250W 7503 02557 0067 +144 +074 069041 044 043 002 00
014000 2319N 07252W 7504 02554 0063 +145 +070 072039 039 041 003 00
014030 2320N 07255W 7504 02554 0067 +141 +074 074041 042 043 001 00
014100 2321N 07257W 7503 02555 0068 +139 +075 076042 043 042 000 00

[cpdaman]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

Stay safe.

geezus you stay safe as well georgetown bahamas......wow.

[cyclogenesis]

August 23, 2011
this Tuesday night
843 PM CDT


Gang ~~ I have started a blog of notes on Hurricane "Irene" on my website at:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/



These will be very informal writings, and not the usual, highly-detailed formal structured writings that I ordinarily do. (Why not?) Because the hurricane is not affecting my service area.


Anyways, I posted some info. on the Hurricane's Vital Statistics on to my website at 815 PM, this Tuesday evening, August 23rd. A final note: This website won't be manned 24-hours a day, and will go withOUT periods of being updated, too.




-- cyclogenesis

[otowntiger]

just wanted to say, I really appreciate the info you folks are posting with the latest on Irene. I'm passing it along to the locals here in Hope Town. High tide is about 6pm Thurs and will likely coincide with Irene's CPA - another concern. Elbow Cay (Key) where I am is the far easternmost Bahama's about 5 miles from Marsh Harbor - Abaco. The very narrow island is about 6 miles long. I've set up a com network where I check the S2K info and the locals call me to get the skinny. If Irene is deepening they want to know as the eye looks to pass directly overhead Thurs. afternoon. Thanks again for the sat pics and info. Jim

Stay safe.

geezus you stay safe as well georgetown bahamas......wow.

It looks like the Turks and Caicos Islands are getting the brunt right now and I bet they are experiencing tremendous wind and rain in that right front quadrant.

[Recurve]

Here is the link to the page with recent Wind field analysis for Irene, an experimental product from NOAA/AOML/HRD:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

Here is a map.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Link:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

>>> Notice the integrated energy listed under the map. And especially the assessment of damage potential -- "category" 1.9 for wind vs. 3.6 for surge/waves on a scale of 0 to 6. If effect it is saying SSS Category 1 Irene has "Category 3" and better surge damage potential. Already.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240150
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 26 20110824
014000 2152N 07301W 6966 03113 9979 +111 +064 036048 049 042 000 00
014030 2154N 07302W 6970 03107 9980 +113 +067 034047 049 041 001 00
014100 2155N 07303W 6967 03116 9980 +115 +062 034046 046 041 000 00
014130 2156N 07305W 6967 03118 9982 +115 +060 039047 047 043 001 00
014200 2157N 07306W 6967 03115 9984 +115 +062 043048 048 043 000 00
014230 2158N 07307W 6967 03122 9989 +112 +062 043044 045 044 001 00
014300 2200N 07309W 6968 03118 9994 +108 +059 041045 045 042 000 00
014330 2201N 07310W 6967 03120 0001 +105 +060 039044 044 043 000 00
014400 2202N 07311W 6969 03119 9999 +108 +056 039043 044 041 000 03
014430 2203N 07312W 6967 03130 0002 +108 +051 039045 046 041 002 00
014500 2205N 07314W 6966 03128 0009 +102 +058 041047 047 042 002 00
014530 2206N 07315W 6966 03128 0013 +099 +066 041047 047 042 001 00
014600 2207N 07316W 6967 03124 0015 +098 +067 040048 048 043 001 00
014630 2208N 07317W 6967 03130 0015 +099 +064 040048 048 042 001 00
014700 2209N 07319W 6967 03128 0018 +098 +065 041047 048 042 001 00
014730 2211N 07320W 6967 03129 0019 +098 +065 041047 047 042 000 00
014800 2212N 07321W 6967 03129 0024 +093 +072 044048 049 042 001 00
014830 2213N 07323W 6967 03133 0029 +090 +077 047049 049 042 000 00
014900 2214N 07324W 6966 03134 0031 +090 +078 050048 049 042 002 00
014930 2216N 07325W 6969 03134 0036 +087 +079 049048 049 043 000 03
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

August 23, 2011
this Tuesday night
843 PM CDT


Gang ~~ I have started a blog of notes on Hurricane "Irene" on my website at:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/

These will be very informal writings, and not the usual, highly-detailed formal structured writings that I ordinarily do. (Why not?) Because the hurricane is not affecting my service area.


Anyways, I posted some info. on the Hurricane's Vital Statistics on to my website at 815 PM, this Tuesday evening, August 23rd. A final note: This website won't be manned 24-hours a day, and will go withOUT periods of being updated, too.

-- cyclogenesis

Good stuff, thanks for sharing, cyclogenesi.

[ozonepete]

Per the discussion of surge, wind field and category, here's a link to recent news about the IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) scale and the forecasts Powell et al at NOAA HRD are developing. I will post a link to any analysis on Irene if it's available.

http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

With a big storm like Irene, the Wind Damage Potential and Surge Damage Potential numbers could give a more realistic indication of the storm's intensity, especially if it drops back down a SSHS category later on near landfall on the East Coast.

Excellent. Thanks, recurve.

[tallbunch]

From the beginnining of this hurricane, I have been thinking complete fish!!

[northtxboy]

I've read "exploding" & "bombing out" several times on here over the last few years on storms that went on to do nothing.

Insert those words now.

how about warp speed

[CronkPSU]

From the beginnining of this hurricane, I have been thinking complete fish!!

puerto rico and the bahamas called to say you fail