ATL: IRENE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

How do you figure?

I believe Aric Dunn was mentioning earlier today that if irene didnt doesnt make that northward turn soon, the pattern could change. Something like that. Idk i thought it was interesting.

If she stalls down there or slows to a crawl while deepening then the weakness wasn't enough to draw her northward. Which would tell me that there was just enough ridge in place.

[lonelymike]

when is the next model run

00Z 06Z 12Z 18z 00Z are the next ones.

[northtxboy]

when is the next model run

00Z 06Z 12Z 18z 00Z are the next ones.

what time?

[lonelymike]

]


How do you figure?[/quote]

I believe Aric Dunn was mentioning earlier today that if irene didnt doesnt make that northward turn soon, the pattern could change. Something like that. Idk i thought it was interesting.[/quote]

Highly doubtful Models are a lot better than that


If she stalls down there or slows to a crawl while deepening then the weakness wasn't enough to draw her northward. Which would tell me that there was just enough ridge in place.[/quote]

[Dean4Storms]

That would also signal that the GFDL yesterday before being ingested with the data from the flight samplings was onto something with its more westward solutions. Just throwing this out there in case she continues this crawl and moving more WNW or 295.

[lonelymike]

when is the next model run

00Z 06Z 12Z 18z 00Z are the next ones.

what time?

Should be out in the next couple of hours 00Z is 2am

[Portastorm]

With the slow crawl tonight, it does make me wonder how this might impact Irene's track down the road and the storm's interaction with the late week synoptic pattern.

[northtxboy]

run[/quote]

00Z 06Z 12Z 18z 00Z are the next ones.[/quote]

what time?[/quote]

Should be out in the next couple of hours 00Z is 2am[/quote]

thanks

[seahawkjd]

What were the early run 00z models that were posted a bit ago? Was that was wxman was referring to when he said the models were still trending east?

[bamajammer4eva]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

How do you figure?

I believe Aric Dunn was mentioning earlier today that if irene didnt doesnt make that northward turn soon, the pattern could change. Something like that. Idk i thought it was interesting.

If she stalls down there or slows to a crawl while deepening then the weakness wasn't enough to draw her northward. Which would tell me that there was just enough ridge in place.[/quote]


Or stays weak. It was supposed to be a cat3 by 3pm today. instead its a cat1. Weaker storms go more west. Their models can say what they want but the storm will go where it wants.

24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

[Dean4Storms]

At 969mb there is no way that is a Cat. 1

[bamajammer4eva]

At 969mb there is no way that is a Cat. 1

They said it is

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

Category One Hurricane (Sustained winds 74-95 mph, 64-82 kt, or 119-153 km/hr).
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage

[Meteorcane]

At 969mb there is no way that is a Cat. 1

It will get there but right now it probably does not have Cat.2 sustained winds at the surface.

[vacanechaser]

At 969mb there is no way that is a Cat. 1

It will get there but right now it probably does not have Cat.2 sustained winds at the surface.

true.. the winds in a quick pressure fall like this always have to play catch up


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dean4Storms]

It was 100mph with much more pressure. I think the plane sometimes misses where the highest winds are located, it happens. But at 969mb now, there is no way this is just at 90mph.

[Jevo]

For those asking.. All times are EST and approximate

00z GFS Images (updates begin around 11:30pm)
06z GFS Images (updates begin around 5:30am)
12z GFS Images (updates begin around 11:30am)
18z GFS Images (updates begin around 5:30pm)

ECMWF Images (updates begin around 3:00pm for 12z, 3:00am for 0z)
UKMET Images (updates begin around 2am for 0z, 2pm for 12z)

00z NOGAPS (updates begin around 2:00am)
12z NOGAPS (updates begin around 2:00pm)

HWRF updates 00z (12:30-1:30am), 06z(6:30-7:30am),12z (12:30-1:30pm),18z (6:30-7:30pm)
GFDL updates 0z (1:30am), 6z (7:30am), 12z (1:30pm)18z (7:30pm)

[cpdaman]

0z nam is a def. slower during first 30 hrs and a hair SW at hour 54 (i.e a hair closer to jupiter at closest pass) ...there is a noticeably less amplified trough in the GL/NE per my eyes ....lol

[A1A]

0z nam is a def. slower during first 30 hrs and a hair SW at hour 60 (i.e a hair closer to jupiter at closest pass) ...there is a noticeably less amplified trough in the GL/NE per my eyes ....lol

What's a good site for looking at the trough?

[FireRat]

What if Irene blows up into Category 5?

Does anyone have an idea if Irene would follow the same steering flow if this were to happen?

[CrazyC83]

It was 100mph with much more pressure. I think the plane sometimes misses where the highest winds are located, it happens. But at 969mb now, there is no way this is just at 90mph.

Pressure and winds are not a one-to-one relationship. Irene is quite a bit bigger now than last night. Igor had a pressure of 945mb at one point while a Cat 1, while some storms at that pressure have been strong Cat 4s.