ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cpdaman]

What will happen if she continues to lose speed or even stalls. Will it give time for the ridge to build back in or will the rough just dig deeper until it weakens the ridge enough for the storm to start a NW and NNW motion.

great question ...i think were all wonderin

b/c in the one sense...it probably wont get as far west or north in next 36 hours or so ...if this slower motion continues....and if trough is not as deep .............like at hr 54 on 0z nam then with irene further south will she still get the turn?

i mean systems that i usually see turn quickly have usually been chuggin along like floyd did...he was a bowling ball...good question i'm wonderin the same

[eastcoastFL]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

I think Irene would have to break a law of physics to somehow affect Florida. I think the reason you don't hear it mentioned is because the the pattern that Irene is in won't allow it to affect Florida.... If the NHC even thought there was a teensy tiny chance of it hitting Florida, they would be all over it...I think it's the cone only because they aren't going to change the cone parameters just for this one instance.

Why would she have to break the law of physics? So far she is still moving wnw and the trough hasn't had its effect on her. Nothing is guarenteed in weather and the ridge could build in or the trough could be weaker than predicted. I mentioned it earlier and ill mention it again. jeanne was a total bust for the NHC. a lot of people were in danger, I remember having to rush home from work and put up my shutters then my grandmothers and by the time i got to my inlaws to put theres up we were already in sustained ts force winds while im on a ladder with sharp heavy shutters. So

[oceancounty]

Nobody in these areas should let their guard down. Living only 2 miles from the bay, we are definitely keeping our eyes on the forecasts. We haven't had any major hurricanes in coastal New Jersey in a long time. Everyone prepare and be safe!

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

Not sure if this is dry air or what's going on, but the last 3 frames have Irene looking worse. The last frame(see below) is showing a very ragged
eye compared to how it looked 2 hours ago. We'll see if that trend continues.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[wxman57]

what 0z models are out?

wxman57: The 00Z tropical model suite (based on 18Z data, not 00Z)

Oh boo! That's a new one on me, pal. What do we say about 18Z output?

It's the 00Z tropical models. The couple of dozen models that come out about 01Z for the 00Z run, 07Z for 06Z, etc. You know, GFDL, HWRF, BAMs, etc, along with interpolated global runs. It's the tropical model run, as opposed to the global runs that come out about 4-5 hours after 00Z. THESE 00Z models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240250
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 32 20110824
024000 2117N 07407W 6966 03136 0027 +099 +042 021046 046 030 000 00
024030 2116N 07406W 6969 03132 0023 +100 +043 020046 047 028 000 00
024100 2114N 07405W 6969 03131 0022 +100 +047 018044 044 029 000 00
024130 2112N 07404W 6967 03131 0024 +098 +050 018043 044 027 001 00
024200 2111N 07403W 6966 03132 0024 +097 +057 017042 043 029 001 00
024230 2109N 07402W 6968 03130 0022 +098 +062 019042 043 028 001 00
024300 2107N 07401W 6967 03132 0021 +097 +063 018043 044 027 000 00
024330 2105N 07359W 6967 03131 0021 +099 +062 017042 043 028 001 00
024400 2104N 07358W 6967 03130 0017 +100 +058 016040 040 029 000 00
024430 2102N 07357W 6966 03129 0016 +103 +054 013039 040 028 000 00
024500 2100N 07356W 6969 03127 0015 +100 +064 012040 040 030 000 00
024530 2058N 07355W 6966 03131 0018 +098 +063 010039 040 029 000 00
024600 2057N 07354W 6967 03128 0021 +096 +061 008039 040 029 001 00
024630 2055N 07353W 6969 03126 0026 +091 +066 003038 041 027 000 00
024700 2053N 07352W 6963 03132 0025 +090 +067 005039 040 027 000 00
024730 2052N 07351W 6967 03124 0022 +093 +065 005041 042 024 001 00
024800 2050N 07350W 6970 03124 0021 +091 +065 004042 042 025 000 30
024830 2048N 07349W 6967 03128 0022 +091 +064 359040 040 024 000 00
024900 2046N 07348W 6967 03122 0017 +095 +061 355038 039 026 000 00
024930 2044N 07347W 6963 03127 0020 +092 +069 352039 040 028 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[viberama]

Not sure if this is dry air or what's going on, but the last 3 frames have Irene looking worse. The last frame(see below) is showing a very ragged
eye compared to how it looked 2 hours ago. We'll see if that trend continues.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

I beg to differ. Looks to me like the convection is really blowing up and I'm starting to slowly see the turn to the NW.

[mf_dolphin]

For the 4th or 5th time today, the cone shown on our graphic is not the official cone. I'm sorry it's off but that's the way the service we use are showing it. The official site for these graphics is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205313.shtml?5day#contents That shows the east coast of Florida is not in the cone at all.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's about to really explode, to me.

[WxGuy1]

What's the windfield look like atm to the west of the center of Irene? How far out to TS winds extend?

From the new 11 pm EDT Forecast Advisory:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

The 50 kt winds extend out 70, 70, 40, and 75 miles northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest of the center, respectively. So, on the west side, the winds extend out an average of ~58 miles W of the center. The 34 kt winds have a greater swatch, but those typically aren't "damaging".

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240259
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

IT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE
ENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE FROM
NOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE...IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
TONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME
DOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101
KNOTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80
KNOTS. IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A
DAY.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN...THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING
IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST EVEN MORE.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
LONGER LEAD TIMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS
HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

NNNN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 240256
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
FONT14 KNHC 240258
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 41
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 1 17
TROPICAL STORM 3 2 2 3 9 20 31
HURRICANE 97 98 98 97 89 76 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 55 27 15 17 26 33 9
HUR CAT 2 36 44 31 28 29 24 1
HUR CAT 3 6 23 40 36 25 15 1
HUR CAT 4 1 4 10 14 9 3 X
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 2 1 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 95KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 100KT 75KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 16(38)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 13(40)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 9(36)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 8(34)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 14(51)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 7(60)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 6(61)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 2(27)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 2(43)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 57(70) 3(73)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 3(40)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 50(71) 2(73)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 2(42)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 40(65) 1(66)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 31(57) X(57)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) X(41)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) X(24)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 1(24) X(24)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 12(28) 1(29) X(29)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 24(62) 4(66) 1(67) X(67)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 17(19) 57(76) 5(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 2( 2) 37(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

ANDROS 34 3 20(23) 31(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
ANDROS 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GREAT EXUMA 34 22 67(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GREAT EXUMA 50 1 54(55) 13(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X 19(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)

SAN SALVADOR 34 47 48(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
SAN SALVADOR 50 3 63(66) 10(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X 29(29) 10(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)

MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYAGUANA 50 88 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
MAYAGUANA 64 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAMAGUEY 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

LES CAYES 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CAPE BEATA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

New NHC track out - clips the Outer Banks, skirts the coast of NJ and slams into Long Island as a 75kt hurricane. Certainly possible. Could even be a bit stronger up there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like it's about to really explode, to me.

Perhaps I'm just concentrating too much on the eye and it's recent raggedness....

[SunnyThoughts]

I suppose that blob of convection that has blown up to the east is going to over-run the main part of the storm. Will it make it stronger? weaken it? Shove it farther west? Guess i'm just wondering whats going to happen when they join forces.

[ozonepete]

what 0z models are out?

wxman57: The 00Z tropical model suite (based on 18Z data, not 00Z)

Oh boo! That's a new one on me, pal. What do we say about 18Z output?

It's the 00Z tropical models. The couple of dozen models that come out about 01Z for the 00Z run, 07Z for 06Z, etc. You know, GFDL, HWRF, BAMs, etc, along with interpolated global runs. It's the tropical model run, as opposed to the global runs that come out about 4-5 hours after 00Z. THESE 00Z models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

OK. Sorry pal. I thought you were referring to the 00Z run of the global numerical models. No problem. It's been a long day.

[lebron23]

new track..watch out NYC - long beach

[Fyzn94]

....wow.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240300
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 33 20110824
025000 2043N 07345W 6967 03127 0020 +092 +071 350037 038 027 001 00
025030 2041N 07344W 6967 03121 0016 +093 +070 350037 037 028 001 00
025100 2039N 07343W 6966 03123 0009 +097 +066 350037 038 029 000 00
025130 2037N 07342W 6966 03123 0009 +099 +062 350037 038 028 000 00
025200 2036N 07341W 6970 03121 0014 +094 +071 347037 037 031 001 00
025230 2034N 07340W 6970 03118 0015 +090 +073 346036 037 027 001 00
025300 2032N 07339W 6966 03120 0016 +090 +071 345038 039 026 000 00
025330 2030N 07338W 6967 03121 0016 +092 +071 342037 038 028 000 00
025400 2028N 07337W 6970 03118 0015 +093 +070 345036 037 027 001 00
025430 2027N 07336W 6963 03124 0011 +095 +071 341036 036 025 000 00
025500 2025N 07335W 6971 03114 0017 +089 +076 340036 036 025 000 00
025530 2023N 07333W 6966 03120 0018 +088 +073 339036 037 025 001 03
025600 2021N 07332W 6967 03120 0020 +089 +073 337036 036 028 000 00
025630 2020N 07331W 6966 03122 0018 +089 +072 333036 037 027 000 00
025700 2018N 07330W 6969 03119 0021 +087 +072 332034 035 029 000 00
025730 2016N 07329W 6966 03121 0018 +092 +065 329034 035 029 000 00
025800 2014N 07328W 6965 03124 0016 +095 +058 330037 037 026 000 00
025830 2012N 07327W 6969 03118 0014 +094 +059 333036 037 027 000 00
025900 2011N 07326W 6969 03120 0013 +094 +070 330033 035 028 000 00
025930 2009N 07325W 6965 03124 0015 +095 +069 326032 033 027 000 03
$$
;