WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

now the NOAA 18z model has it coming to Okinawa..We should start a tally to see how many different directions this storm is forecasted for...I feel bad for the guys trying to call it with 2 storms out there and what it may or may not do together

[supercane]

wrong thread

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 16.0N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHWEST 90NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 17.3N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 260000UTC 18.4N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 270000UTC 20.1N 127.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[StormingB81]

Wonder what 5 day forecast JMA will say...we will see really soon

[StormingB81]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/19.html

wow....that would be interesting

[euro6208]

:uarrow:

here's a clearer pic KWT; a microwave eye is indeed forming

based on nanmadol's very impressive circulation and a well defined eye on microwave present, i would place the intensity at 60 knots 1 minute winds...

[StormingB81]

Now..I am saying IF here but IF this happends and this is still a slow mover and it heads to Okinawa and we have another slow mover with alot of rain with all the rain we have ben having it could do more then the winds depending what they are..

[Chacor]

JMA is exactly due north through 120 hours.

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 16.0N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHWEST 90NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 17.3N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 260000UTC 18.4N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 270000UTC 20.1N 127.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 280000UTC 21.3N 127.2E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 290000UTC 22.5N 127.2E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Now this is just pure speculation but I'm wondering if we could have some sort of track similar to typhoon Sinlaku back in 2008. I know the set up is slightly different right now but that forecast track by JMA does remind be a bit of it.

Sinlaku hovered and wobbled off east coast of Taiwan for a few days before landing on NE Taiwan as a real howler before budging off NE towards Japan. Nogaps hinting at this option but I know it's not the most reliable of models!

I think Nanmadol could well be a big player down the road especially since JMA forecasting pretty steady intensification.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 127.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

recent MI showing an eye on 89Ghz



the 37Ghz also shows an eye somewhat although displaced a little bit to the NE

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS STEADILY DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE THE
AVAILABILITY OF VISUAL IMAGERY, POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL DUE TO A DISPARITY BETWEEN MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE SCAN ALSO SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID-
LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OVER THE LLCC. TS 14W EXISTS WITHIN A VIGOROUS
MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND ONWARDS TO
THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE 231200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N 128E,
PLACING TS NANMADOL UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A WEAK POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INTO A STATIONARY TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE RYUKYUS PERSISTS,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANNEL HAS NARROWED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION FACTORED WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
RJTD, PGTW AND RJTD. TS 14W CONTINUES A SLOW POLEWARD DRIFT IN A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS THE EARLY STAGE OF A MONSOON GYRE. TYPICAL OF
A MONSOON GYRE ARE MULTIPLE VORTICES WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION,
AND THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO VORTICES TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TS
14W. THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION OF INTEREST IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THERE IS
CURRENTLY 900 NM OF SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THEY ARE
NOT INFLUENCING EACH OTHER YET, HOWEVER THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CLOSING
ON EACH OTHER AT APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. THE TRADITIONAL SEPARATION
AT WHICH TWO DEVELOPED CYCLONES BEGIN TO INTERACT IS APPROXIMATELY
700 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN ERRATIC BUT ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
DRIFT THROUGH TAU 48, AS THE GYRE PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION, BUT TS 14W WILL
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH NEAR TAU 24. ONE EFFECT OF THE INHERENT
COMPLEXITY OF MONSOON GYRES IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN NOT
ONLY IN POOR AGREEMENT, BUT INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS BEEN GENERATING THE MOST CONSISTENT SCENARIO SINCE THE
FORMATIVE STAGES, AND ITS SOLUTION IS KEEPING WITH TRACKS TYPICAL
IN A MONSOON GYRE SCENARIO. AFTER TAU 48, TS 14W WILL BEND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN A PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH
THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLATEAU.
C. THERE EXISTS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGES
DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DCI.
TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND ITS
COUNTERPART SYSTEM, AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF
FUJIWARA INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT IT IS
UNCLEAR AS TO WHICH OF THE TWO SYSTEMS, IF EITHER, WILL BECOME
DOMINANT, THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS FLAT IN THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK.//

[StormingB81]

If this thing doesn't move soon it maybe over before it even starts

[StormingB81]

GFS shows a pretty strong system comming to Okinawa.....From the west...like Songda.....Could be interesting if it comes true

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

[Typhoon Hunter]

If this thing doesn't move soon it maybe over before it even starts

Due to upwelling? Unlikely considering it's continuing to intensify and get moving eventually.

JMA have just upgraded to a 55kts STS!

HKO have finally sorted out their forecast and have now swung more in line with JMA. I really do think this could be a threat for the Ryukus...AGAIN! http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[StormingB81]

James if GFS track happends you ready to come back to Okinawa so soon...lol...but that track looks like it would be alot worse then our 48 hour marathon..

[euro6208]

T3.5/3.5 NANMADOL close to typhoon intensity but who knows...

could this be our 3rd category 5 this year?

[Typhoon Hunter]

James if GFS track happends you ready to come back to Okinawa so soon...lol...but that track looks like it would be alot worse then our 48 hour marathon..

I'll come back to Okinawa if need be. I also wouldn't be surprised if this storm had a little more juice to it too by the time it reaches that area compared to Muifa which was pretty ragged wind wise despite the deluge. Also more of a threat to Miyako and Ishigaki!

[StormingB81]

ECMWF is also showing tha tstorm comming very close to Okinawa..you know looking at the latest ECMWF track remind you of Songda a little bit....

[euro6208]

i would love for both systems to get as strong as ivan and joan back in 1997...both 160 knots...



what is the possiblity of this occuring again? Nanmadol and Talas? lol