ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[viberama]

Yeah I'm still in the camp of dry air hindering development. The dry air was very evident earlier today on TPW, but when I said that I had many who disagreed with me

It does now look like she is slowly mixing out the dry air:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

In my opinion I would give her six more hours before we start to see some real intensification begin.

Wouldn't Cuba hinder some development too?

[CronkPSU]

WSW wobble?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240340
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 37 20110824
033000 2110N 07219W 6970 02857 9667 +140 +112 129016 019 000 002 00
033030 2110N 07217W 6967 02859 9667 +143 +109 145021 022 013 003 00
033100 2111N 07215W 6966 02864 9669 +142 +106 150026 029 023 001 00
033130 2112N 07213W 6970 02864 9679 +140 +103 155036 038 035 001 00
033200 2112N 07212W 6969 02880 9698 +133 +111 156050 054 057 005 00
033230 2113N 07210W 6970 02888 9716 +129 +116 155059 062 070 004 00
033300 2113N 07208W 6967 02908 9735 +123 +122 156066 068 074 006 00
033330 2114N 07207W 6957 02936 //// +097 //// 164079 087 075 013 01
033400 2114N 07205W 6977 02923 //// +072 //// 158088 092 075 014 01
033430 2115N 07203W 6969 02953 //// +075 //// 158083 085 069 025 01
033500 2115N 07202W 6965 02973 //// +068 //// 165078 079 065 025 01
033530 2116N 07200W 6968 02978 //// +077 //// 164080 081 064 013 01
033600 2116N 07158W 6966 02991 //// +075 //// 161081 082 058 011 01
033630 2117N 07157W 6967 03001 //// +070 //// 160081 081 056 008 01
033700 2117N 07155W 6971 03008 //// +072 //// 158079 080 054 005 01
033730 2118N 07154W 6965 03023 //// +074 //// 159077 077 051 004 01
033800 2118N 07152W 6967 03027 //// +069 //// 160074 075 051 006 01
033830 2119N 07150W 6967 03033 //// +072 //// 159070 071 053 005 01
033900 2119N 07149W 6958 03053 9929 +081 //// 160068 071 049 006 01
033930 2120N 07147W 6965 03049 9926 +095 +090 162065 066 049 004 00
$$
;

92 kt FL, 75 kt SFMR

[eastcoastFL]

based on the movement of irene and the trough I would say she starts heading north between 77w-78w .

also by no means an official forecast

[cpdaman]

WSW wobble?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

i understand this isn't the closest heights to look at for steering flow

but this does show you the ridge building west the best

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah I'm still in the camp of dry air hindering development. The dry air was very evident earlier today on TPW, but when I said that I had many who disagreed with me

It does now look like she is slowly mixing out the dry air:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

In my opinion I would give her six more hours before we start to see some real intensification begin.

Wouldn't Cuba hinder some development too?

In my opinion (not a professional, just a meteorology undergrad student), I think it won't be as much of a factor because the circulation will be farther away from land than it was from Hispaniola. It will have more room to pull in an undisturbed inflow. Also, latest shear analysis (03Z from CIMSS) shows that Irene is still under 10-20 knots of wind shear. Although it still from a SW direction, the TPW loop I posted earlier shows that she has now moistened up her environment in the SW direction, so I think dry air injection won't be as much of an issue as it was earlier today when dry air was being injected in from the NW due to the trough.

[RL3AO]

03z position was about 12 nmi NW of actual position.

[SouthDadeFish]

WSW wobble?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

i understand this isn't the closest heights to look at for steering flow

but this does show you the ridge building west the best

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Wow all the layer mean wind analysis there show a much stronger ridge building in wake of the trough lifting out at 03Z when compared to 00Z. Nice catch. Still though, the second trough she be strong enough to weaken the ridge. The short term motion may be more westerly than forecast though.

[eastcoastFL]

not sure about wsw but i def. saw a jump to due west

[eastcoastFL]

IS there a radar in the bahamas that we will be able to get a good look at soon?

[sponger]

It looks like on the IR that much of the in flow in the SW quad is coming in along the coast and not as much off the mountains. It could allow for some intensification tonight. Just my amateur opinion. Either way, a great swell maker for the entire east coast.

[Dave]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

The NHC is VERY good at this. The cone is defined as the 67 percentile error at that point for the past 5 years. The cone right now comes (according to a google earth via NHC KMZ's) within 82 miles of Jupiter inlet. It's AWFUL close.

Storms rarely travel >20 kts (25MPH) so it would take 2 hours or more to "wobble" that way in a completely different direction. However, a small change now would mean a different track altogether, say if the storm didn't turn in time and moved for an hour past the forecast points. The storm has consistently been right of NHC track for a good part of its life. They have excellent model consensus, literally all the models are within 50ish miles of the NHC track. It isn't just models they use though. Real people with careers in meteorology examine exactly what is happening and where and know what a particular feature will do next.

If it makes you feel better - there is a tropical storm watch for the *waters* off the tri-county area.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 240346
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/03:27:30Z
B. 21 deg 07 min N
072 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2821 m
D. 64 kt
E. 217 deg 15 nm
F. 298 deg 78 kt
G. 217 deg 18 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 13 C / 3046 m
J. 17 C / 3045 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 01:25:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 03:34:00Z
;

[eastcoastFL]

ts watch for the waters? lol. guess they got sick of everyone complaining about no watches.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240350
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 38 20110824
034000 2120N 07145W 6966 03056 9944 +084 //// 163067 069 049 006 01
034030 2121N 07144W 6971 03052 //// +081 //// 159059 062 047 009 01
034100 2121N 07142W 6964 03065 9948 +084 //// 161059 061 048 009 01
034130 2122N 07140W 6979 03048 //// +075 //// 164058 059 046 010 01
034200 2122N 07139W 6967 03069 //// +080 //// 161059 063 047 011 01
034230 2123N 07137W 6962 03078 //// +068 //// 158059 064 048 012 01
034300 2123N 07135W 6968 03075 //// +068 //// 154060 062 046 012 01
034330 2124N 07134W 6965 03084 //// +069 //// 160060 062 043 010 01
034400 2124N 07132W 6967 03081 9991 +075 //// 158056 057 043 009 01
034430 2125N 07130W 6967 03085 9981 +085 //// 153055 056 041 006 01
034500 2125N 07129W 6965 03089 9981 +087 //// 154053 053 041 006 01
034530 2126N 07127W 6963 03095 9995 +076 //// 156056 059 032 014 05
034600 2128N 07126W 6976 03079 9986 +081 //// 155056 059 038 009 01
034630 2130N 07125W 6962 03100 9986 +087 //// 151053 053 037 011 01
034700 2131N 07124W 6969 03088 9982 +091 //// 152052 053 036 005 01
034730 2133N 07123W 6967 03093 9981 +094 +087 151051 051 033 003 00
034800 2135N 07122W 6964 03100 9989 +089 //// 150050 051 033 003 01
034830 2137N 07121W 6965 03100 9991 +088 //// 154051 052 031 002 01
034900 2138N 07120W 6968 03098 9993 +089 //// 154051 051 030 002 01
034930 2140N 07119W 6965 03104 9995 +088 //// 154051 052 033 001 01
$$
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 13

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 03:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 3:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°07'N 72°20'W (21.1167N 72.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 81 miles (130 km) to the WSW (253°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,821m (9,255ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 298° at 78kts (From the WNW at ~ 89.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:25:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:34:00Z

[SouthDadeFish]

Well there's your eye:

[Meteorcane]

T numbers way up there, could be only a few hours away from really bombing.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

I think Irene would have to break a law of physics to somehow affect Florida. I think the reason you don't hear it mentioned is because the the pattern that Irene is in won't allow it to affect Florida.... If the NHC even thought there was a teensy tiny chance of it hitting Florida, they would be all over it...I think it's the cone only because they aren't going to change the cone parameters just for this one instance.

Why would she have to break the law of physics? So far she is still moving wnw and the trough hasn't had its effect on her. Nothing is guarenteed in weather and the ridge could build in or the trough could be weaker than predicted. I mentioned it earlier and ill mention it again. jeanne was a total bust for the NHC. a lot of people were in danger, I remember having to rush home from work and put up my shutters then my grandmothers and by the time i got to my inlaws to put theres up we were already in sustained ts force winds while im on a ladder with sharp heavy shutters. So

Actually there are things guaranteed in weather. Lots of things. Like an air mass rotates clockwise around an HP cell, and counterclockwise around a LP cell. HP moves areas of LP, while LP erodes HP. Warm air rises and creates clouds as it's moisture is condensed. Weather ALWAYS obeys the laws of physics. Things are missed from time to time for sure. But there is certainly a trough lifting out and the cane will follow that weakness. It isn't going to be "close" - its a doozy. If she does stall, the chance for further west movement of the storm is possible, but that simply isn't going to happen. There ARE steering currents at play, they are just complex.