ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

im just watching a big fat eye move west on sat loop

[Dave]

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Irene is entering in an intensification phase there's no doubt about it, it kind of reminds me to Ike in the GOM just before landfall. I think we will have a major by the next complete advisory if the trend continues.

[eastcoastFL]

unless im seeing things with the west movement its going to need to start a NW heading to hit the next forecast point.

[CronkPSU]

im just watching a big fat eye move west on sat loop

No doubt it has gone due west the past two hours...can't see it doing that much longer though

[bexar]

I just don't see Irene currently strengthening right now. Shear is currently moderate and she is still entertaining dry air. Hopefully trend continues so that East coast would be spared

[UpTheCreek]

NHC discussion doesn't see much strengthening in the next 12 hours due to shear and dry air

Even if that were true, how does that equal "reaching major status is probably out of the question now"? Where is Irene after 12 hours? Does it vanish? I think Irene is going to be clearing the big islands and will finally reach an all encompassing environment which will be conducive to major development. Just my very amateur opinion of course!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240440
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 43 20110824
043000 2229N 07300W 6966 03119 0004 +096 //// 077062 064 047 004 01
043030 2229N 07302W 6970 03115 0006 +096 +094 076056 057 048 005 00
043100 2229N 07305W 6969 03115 0010 +094 +090 074054 055 048 002 00
043130 2229N 07307W 6965 03125 0010 +093 +088 075054 054 056 001 03
043200 2229N 07309W 6970 03117 0010 +095 +081 074053 054 051 002 00
043230 2229N 07312W 6956 03135 0003 +101 +074 070050 052 046 003 30
043300 2229N 07314W 6971 03117 0003 +103 +071 067048 049 048 002 00
043330 2229N 07317W 6968 03119 0005 +100 +084 062049 050 048 002 00
043400 2229N 07319W 6969 03121 0005 +101 +084 062046 048 046 002 00
043430 2229N 07322W 6967 03123 0007 +100 +077 065045 045 046 001 00
043500 2229N 07324W 6967 03121 0008 +100 +068 065046 046 045 000 00
043530 2229N 07327W 6969 03121 0009 +100 +072 058045 045 044 002 03
043600 2229N 07329W 6967 03125 0009 +101 +070 055043 044 044 000 00
043630 2229N 07332W 6967 03126 0018 +095 +067 051042 043 042 000 00
043700 2229N 07334W 6967 03130 0019 +095 +070 049041 041 041 000 00
043730 2229N 07336W 6967 03126 0025 +090 +076 052041 041 041 001 00
043800 2229N 07339W 6968 03128 0030 +087 +083 054041 042 038 000 00
043830 2229N 07341W 6978 03118 0029 +090 +087 058045 047 037 000 03
043900 2229N 07343W 6967 03129 0028 +087 +087 061043 044 035 001 00
043930 2228N 07346W 6958 03146 0034 +085 //// 061044 044 /// /// 05
$$
;

[TYNI]

unless im seeing things with the west movement its going to need to start a NW heading to hit the next forecast point.

She's going to have to start "stair stepping" to hit it...

[Dave]

[eastcoastFL]

NHC discussion doesn't see much strengthening in the next 12 hours due to shear and dry air

Even if that were true, how does that equal "reaching major status is probably out of the question now"? Where is Irene after 12 hours? Does it vanish? I think Irene is going to be clearing the big islands and will finally reach an all encompassing environment which will be conducive to major development. Just my very amateur opinion of course!

agreed. there isnt much in her way to prevent her from strengthening.

[baitism]

Please stop feeding the troll. Which he obviously is after reading his post history.

Irene really is enjoying distancing herself from Hispaniola.

[FireRat]

Looking at the latest imagery y'all posted I' seeing the beginning of a donut of doom.

So far Irene's behaved with the track forecast but that latest wobble-to-temporary westward motion is a bit unsettling as I'm about to hit the sack. We should be seeing a more NW motion resume by late tomorrow morning. If, and that's a big if, Irene continues a westward lasting until noon tomorrow, then expect BIG shift to the west and Florida back in the western side of the cone once again.

[bexar]

I was also called a troll hours ago when I posted that Irene looks weakening, but the nhc did lower her wind speeds from 85 to 80 in advisory no. 14.

[SouthFloridawx]

as exepected, upper level winds aren't that favorable anymore for Irene, a factor that most of the models have failed to anticipate.

appearance now doesn't look very impressive.

reaching major status is probably out of the question now.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are you kidding?

NHC discussion doesn't see much strengthening in the next 12 hours due to shear and dry air

Looks like shear has actually been decreasing, according to the Shear Tendency Chart...

[ConvergenceZone]

We finally got dark red around THE ENTIRE eye.... check it out! That's the first I've seen this with Irene.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[NDG]

She's going to start freaking some people out if her NW track does not happen soon.

[psyclone]

absent a northward jog soon, she's going to make a direct landfall on great inagua.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240456
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 44 20110824
044000 2227N 07346W 6968 03130 0032 +086 //// 062044 045 /// /// 05
044030 2225N 07345W 6970 03125 0027 +087 //// 060043 044 034 001 01
044100 2224N 07343W 6967 03128 0025 +090 +086 057043 044 035 000 00
044130 2223N 07342W 6969 03128 0020 +090 +083 054043 043 035 002 00
044200 2222N 07341W 6967 03123 0020 +092 +080 053043 043 037 000 00
044230 2221N 07340W 6966 03127 0018 +091 +079 051041 042 038 000 00
044300 2219N 07338W 6970 03121 0018 +090 +083 052039 040 039 002 00
044330 2218N 07337W 6966 03123 0015 +091 +083 052038 039 041 001 00
044400 2217N 07336W 6966 03121 0013 +093 +082 052037 038 040 002 00
044430 2216N 07335W 6967 03120 0011 +090 +084 050036 036 041 001 00
044500 2215N 07333W 6969 03113 0008 +092 +081 048035 037 039 001 00
044530 2213N 07332W 6968 03113 9997 +100 +076 045040 043 042 002 00
044600 2212N 07331W 6970 03112 0003 +096 +078 046038 039 043 002 00
044630 2211N 07330W 6965 03117 0005 +094 +078 046041 042 041 001 00
044700 2210N 07328W 6970 03106 9999 +096 +074 040039 040 043 001 00
044730 2208N 07327W 6967 03108 9996 +096 +073 039041 042 045 002 00
044800 2207N 07326W 6965 03111 9995 +096 +073 037042 043 045 001 00
044830 2206N 07324W 6969 03106 9991 +095 +075 034043 043 044 000 00
044900 2204N 07323W 6968 03103 9986 +100 +072 033040 041 045 003 00
044930 2203N 07322W 6968 03102 9985 +100 +068 033041 042 045 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]