. Im still holding to the map that i provided in a post yesterday(showing a near miss to the east coast), however it could be closer.Fabian Benchmark
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Stormchaser16
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Fabian Benchmark
A good benchmark was set by someone else on another board, since the models are flipping a bit(EC takes it out to sea). They said watch where it crosses 60W, if its 25> then it will do an early recurve, if its 20N or around there then watch out Florida and east coast eventually. 20-25N means a near miss or a brush by the midatlantic. So like i said, im not giving up on my scenario till i see Fabian gone fishin . Im still holding to the map that i provided in a post yesterday(showing a near miss to the east coast), however it could be closer.
. Im still holding to the map that i provided in a post yesterday(showing a near miss to the east coast), however it could be closer.
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Scott_inVA
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Re: Fabian Benchmark
Stormchaser16 wrote:A good benchmark was set by someone else on another board, since the models are flipping a bit(EC takes it out to sea). They said watch where it crosses 60W, if its 25> then it will do an early recurve, if its 20N or around there then watch out Florida and east coast eventually. 20-25N means a near miss or a brush by the midatlantic. So like i said, im not giving up on my scenario till i see Fabian gone fishin
About "The Benchmark".
I have always used 20|60...although I know DT has written about the benchmark being at 25|60 (so credit is given where due).
73% of TCs that "pass" the benchmark (meaning south and west) landfall or pass near the CONUS east coast (north of Florida).
(if memory serves) 60% of TCs that pass the benchmark LANDFALL along CONUS east coast.
That's why the benchmark is H*U*G*E. Since coordinates are not the sole determinant, alot of other things need to be present...HP to the NE...a correctly located trof over the CONUS and other factors are important. The Benchmark simply is a proven reference as to when the east coast needs to be alert.
hope that helps.
Scott
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