Fabian Benchmark

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Stormchaser16
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Fabian Benchmark

#1 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:15 pm

A good benchmark was set by someone else on another board, since the models are flipping a bit(EC takes it out to sea). They said watch where it crosses 60W, if its 25> then it will do an early recurve, if its 20N or around there then watch out Florida and east coast eventually. 20-25N means a near miss or a brush by the midatlantic. So like i said, im not giving up on my scenario till i see Fabian gone fishin :P . Im still holding to the map that i provided in a post yesterday(showing a near miss to the east coast), however it could be closer.
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:22 pm

I missed this map... Where is it??
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Colin
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#3 Postby Colin » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:48 pm

I think the EC will be spared with this one...GFS and EC now takes it out to sea..
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Re: Fabian Benchmark

#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Aug 28, 2003 9:07 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:A good benchmark was set by someone else on another board, since the models are flipping a bit(EC takes it out to sea). They said watch where it crosses 60W, if its 25> then it will do an early recurve, if its 20N or around there then watch out Florida and east coast eventually. 20-25N means a near miss or a brush by the midatlantic. So like i said, im not giving up on my scenario till i see Fabian gone fishin :P . Im still holding to the map that i provided in a post yesterday(showing a near miss to the east coast), however it could be closer.


About "The Benchmark".

I have always used 20|60...although I know DT has written about the benchmark being at 25|60 (so credit is given where due).

73% of TCs that "pass" the benchmark (meaning south and west) landfall or pass near the CONUS east coast (north of Florida).

(if memory serves) 60% of TCs that pass the benchmark LANDFALL along CONUS east coast.

That's why the benchmark is H*U*G*E. Since coordinates are not the sole determinant, alot of other things need to be present...HP to the NE...a correctly located trof over the CONUS and other factors are important. The Benchmark simply is a proven reference as to when the east coast needs to be alert.

hope that helps.

Scott
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#5 Postby BEER980 » Sun Aug 31, 2003 3:41 pm

Does anyone have a link where I can read about this benchmark theory?
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