ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[maxintensity]

best looking cat 1 hurricane of all time and its not even close. Wow.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240500
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 45 20110824
045000 2202N 07320W 6966 03103 9984 +103 +061 035044 045 046 002 00
045030 2200N 07319W 6966 03103 9976 +106 +064 034044 045 047 002 00
045100 2159N 07318W 6970 03093 9984 +096 +075 037050 052 046 005 00
045130 2158N 07317W 6969 03095 9977 +098 +092 039051 052 047 004 00
045200 2157N 07315W 6963 03097 9964 +107 +087 041051 052 048 004 00
045230 2155N 07314W 6963 03097 9963 +107 +075 037050 051 049 007 00
045300 2154N 07313W 6973 03079 9968 +100 +080 038050 051 048 008 00
045330 2153N 07311W 6966 03087 9961 +103 +076 036047 050 047 007 00
045400 2151N 07310W 6970 03081 9963 +101 +078 037041 043 046 006 00
045430 2150N 07309W 6962 03087 9967 +093 +088 042045 048 046 005 00
045500 2149N 07307W 6967 03078 9967 +091 //// 047052 054 046 007 01
045530 2148N 07306W 6978 03064 9966 +079 //// 050053 054 046 007 01
045600 2147N 07305W 6965 03073 9952 +096 +082 052055 056 047 002 00
045630 2145N 07304W 6969 03066 9942 +102 +075 053054 055 044 003 00
045700 2144N 07303W 6967 03062 9943 +098 +085 055055 057 044 002 00
045730 2143N 07301W 6966 03060 9947 +091 //// 053052 053 043 001 01
045800 2142N 07300W 6970 03053 9925 +107 +082 052055 055 042 002 00
045830 2141N 07259W 6969 03049 9919 +106 +080 052055 056 042 002 00
045900 2139N 07258W 6963 03048 9917 +104 +083 046053 054 043 001 00
045930 2138N 07256W 6974 03034 9915 +102 +084 043055 055 046 001 00
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

man that eye cleared out in no time! The westward movement is a boarderline trend its 4 hours now of due west. Almost certainly going to miss the next point to the west unless a NW movement is started ASAP

[Shuriken]

im just watching a big fat eye move west on sat loop

No doubt it has gone due west the past two hours...can't see it doing that much longer though

Why not? The trough is nowhere close to it; and hurricanes very-close-north-of Hispaniola have a disturbing tendency to bobble left before pulling free of the drag.

[eastcoastFL]

Id be willing to bet the westward run we are watching was "unexpected"

[SunnyThoughts]

Info on Great Inagua for those interested. Irene does look to be headed for it if it doesn't start gaining some latitude.

Great Inagua is the third largest island in The Bahamas at 596 sq mi (1544 km²) and lies about 55 miles (90 km) from the eastern tip of Cuba. The island is about 55 x 19 miles (90 x 30 km) in extent, the highest point being 108 ft (33 m) on East Hill. It encloses several lakes, most notably the 12-mile (19 km) long Lake Windsor (also called Lake Rosa) which occupies nearly 1/4 of the interior. The population of Great Inagua is 969 (2000 census).

[Hurricaneman]

The current position of Irene compared to where the GFS had it at this point, Irene is west of that

[Dave]

[eastcoastFL]

Great info Sunny

[Buck]

I texted a friend in Jacksonville, NC this morning saying, "I guess you'll be evacuating soon." She replied with "I haven't heard whats going on. I guess I need to watch the Weather Channel."

D'oh!

[Ntxw]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Nice water vapor imagery. Look at that energy coming down the plains in the middle of the country to reinforce the trough. No wonder the models have been trending east the past few days.

[kamqercam]

I want to go to bed but I want to go to sleep knowing it's not going West anymore! I just have a gut feeling this thing is going to ruin my Birthday.

[psyclone]

man that eye cleared out in no time! The westward movement is a boarderline trend its 4 hours now of due west. Almost certainly going to miss the next point to the west unless a NW movement is started ASAP

florida has enough of a "margin of safety" that it could deviate to the west of the forecast track by 30 or 40 miles with a negligible impact to the weather conditions. i frankly wouldn't worry about it at this point. that sort of a change could have big implications for some of the bahama islands, however.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Shuriken]

Given the way both Gloria and Floyd bombed on their closest approaches to/in the Bahamas, I think the intensity forecast is severely conservative. I see utterly no reason on earth why Irene shouldn't be a solid cat-4 sometime later Wednesday, especially since she's in a better "sweet spot" isotherm-wise than either of those storms.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wonder what effect that Upper Level Low to the Northwest of the system will have on Irene.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wobble watches very seldom are useful. Like "Rock" just mentioned on the Model thread, and I quote, "its wobbling....ridges are not exactly smooth as they move around them. it will correct itself.",

and I agree 100% with him...We go through this wobble watching every year, and very rarely does the storm do what it's not forecasted to do.... The storm will correct itself, probably by stair stepping....The NHC knows what they are talking about.

[eastcoastFL]

man that eye cleared out in no time! The westward movement is a boarderline trend its 4 hours now of due west. Almost certainly going to miss the next point to the west unless a NW movement is started ASAP

florida has enough of a "margin of safety" that it could deviate to the west of the forecast track by 30 or 40 miles with a negligible impact to the weather conditions. i frankly wouldn't worry about it at this point. that sort of a change could have big implications for some of the bahama islands, however.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Im not the least bit worried about a landfall, but every bit closer it moves west it increases out chances of getting TS force winds and we have no watches up.

[AdamFirst]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Nice water vapor imagery. Look at that energy coming down the plains in the middle of the country to reinforce the trough. No wonder the models have been trending east the past few days.

Jeez

That thing looks like a giant deflector shield. If it gets deep enough it looks like it'll bounce right off it

[ROCK]

I wonder what effect that Upper Level Low to the Northwest of the system will have on Irene.

ventilation....

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240510
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 46 20110824
050000 2137N 07255W 6970 03034 9911 +100 +083 043056 057 048 002 00
050030 2136N 07254W 6961 03038 9910 +090 +088 042058 060 050 003 00
050100 2134N 07253W 6971 03021 9905 +084 //// 045062 063 051 000 01
050130 2133N 07251W 6963 03027 9892 +099 +093 045063 064 053 001 00
050200 2132N 07250W 6970 03009 9879 +105 +081 047067 069 055 002 03
050230 2131N 07249W 6967 03004 9865 +106 +084 050076 079 057 003 00
050300 2129N 07248W 6970 02987 9874 +086 //// 048075 075 059 012 01
050330 2128N 07247W 6972 02973 //// +081 //// 047075 078 063 007 01
050400 2127N 07245W 6963 02970 9835 +094 //// 040082 086 064 014 01
050430 2126N 07244W 6963 02953 //// +084 //// 041082 086 070 013 01
050500 2125N 07243W 6968 02924 //// +090 //// 043084 090 074 015 01
050530 2123N 07242W 6960 02914 //// +092 //// 044083 089 075 021 01
050600 2122N 07241W 6976 02872 9707 +112 //// 041060 069 077 014 01
050630 2121N 07239W 6966 02871 9685 +134 //// 035044 048 068 003 01
050700 2120N 07238W 6967 02865 9661 +148 +119 032035 037 043 001 03
050730 2119N 07236W 6967 02856 9644 +156 +111 027029 031 030 000 03
050800 2118N 07235W 6969 02844 9637 +156 +109 028023 026 021 000 00
050830 2117N 07233W 6966 02848 9636 +152 +109 037016 018 012 001 03
050900 2116N 07231W 6969 02838 9639 +145 +109 046010 012 000 002 03
050930 2115N 07230W 6963 02835 9640 +139 +109 032002 005 001 001 03
$$
;

90 kt FL, 77 kt SFMR. Pressure 964mb.