ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

are the far northern bands interacting with edge of the ridge?

[NC George]

did irene just wink?

I saw that, and was thinking the same thing.

[crimi481]

That due west movement has some ramifications later
Could be ridge getting stronger, as she is forecast to go around ridge- moving more N.W. -right?
Trough out - ridge back in?

[bamajammer4eva]

moved due west .2 degrees according to NHC since 11 PM

Here is the forecast from the 5am advisory Tuesday morning. Was forecast to be a full category higher and further North. All of the models that turned the storm more North also exploded the storm strength-wise. Has been weaker, moving slowly west.

24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

[summersquall]

A 30 mile wobble probably means the difference between a 4' storm surge and a 14' storm surge for me. I don't want to see any southerly winds into my southward-facing bay! Keeping a close eye on her overnight, and making a decision on where to ride it out in the morning when conditions will probably be starting to deteriorate.

I would suggest the sturdiest structure that is available to you. Wobbles happen and can't be predicted. The prudent course of action is to plan for the worst case scenario. Then, if the wind is a little less intense or the surge a little less severe then all you will be left with is relief.

These storms are not to be toyed with. If it were me, I would be flying out if I could.

My best to you and yours. God bless.

[AdamFirst]

Wow didn't know NWS off offices in FL were issuing hurricane local statements. They normally only do this usually when theres already a watch or warning in effect for the coast but looks like in this case they're doing it beforehand. Sounds like they are concerned and watching the more westward track as of late and this was issued just a little over an hr ago I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Tropical storm warnings go up for the east-central FL coast.

Full statement
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMLB.shtml

I believe they're issuing local statements for the central FL coast because the offshore waters from Sebastian Inlet south are under a Tropical Storm Watch. Some kind of new thing they're doing this year I believe.

[SouthFloridawx]

moved due west .2 degrees according to NHC since 11 PM

Here is the forecast from the 5am advisory Tuesday morning. Was forecast to be a full category higher and further North. All of the models that turned the storm more North also exploded the storm strength-wise. Has been weaker, moving slowly west.

24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

That's about a 46 NM error.

[ncweatherwizard]

moved due west .2 degrees according to NHC since 11 PM

Here is the forecast from the 5am advisory Tuesday morning. Was forecast to be a full category higher and further North. All of the models that turned the storm more North also exploded the storm strength-wise. Has been weaker, moving slowly west.

24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

This is a good point in principle--except it's not really weaker. The winds aren't 105kts, but the pressure is in the 960s. The 12Z Canadian ensemble showed this phenomenon pretty well--but got a little too exaggerated with the number of members that steered Irene into Florida or Georgia as a weak storm. 00Z has corrected this for the most part.

96HR 00Z Canadian SLP: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 0&Type=pnm

[ncweatherwizard]

Don't see 100% POP for four days out too often:

This is the current NWS-Baltimore for Washington, DC forecast:

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 76. Windy. *Chance of precipitation is 100%.*

[CronkPSU]

back to wnw the last hour

[Alabama]

Wow didn't know NWS off offices in FL were issuing hurricane local statements. They normally only do this usually when theres already a watch or warning in effect for the coast but looks like in this case they're doing it beforehand. Sounds like they are concerned and watching the more westward track as of late and this was issued just a little over an hr ago I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Tropical storm warnings go up for the east-central FL coast.

Melbourne issued "Hurricane Local Statements" at 6:00 PM and again by 9:00 PM, if not earlier if conditions warrant.

They (the Melbourne office) issued a Coastal Tropical Storm Watch at that time for coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and out 60 nautical miles.

They issued another at 2:04 AM and the next one is planned at 6:00 AM or sooner if conditions warrant.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow didn't know NWS off offices in FL were issuing hurricane local statements. They normally only do this usually when theres already a watch or warning in effect for the coast but looks like in this case they're doing it beforehand. Sounds like they are concerned and watching the more westward track as of late and this was issued just a little over an hr ago I wouldnt be at all surprised to see Tropical storm warnings go up for the east-central FL coast.

Melbourne issued "Hurricane Local Statements" at 6:00 PM and again by 9:00 PM, if not earlier if conditions warrant.

They (the Melbourne office) issued a Coastal Tropical Storm Watch at that time for coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and out 60 nautical miles.

They issued another at 2:04 AM and the next one is planned at 6:00 AM or sooner if conditions warrant.

Hmm so the NHC no longer issues hurricane watches/warning for the US coast but leave it up to the local NWS offices to decide now. Looks like even though FL is under a tropical storm watch, the NHC isnt acknowledging it on their map nor their advisories.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Alabama]

Hmm so the NHC no longer issues hurricane watches/warning for the US coast but leave it up to the local NWS offices to decide now. Looks like even though FL is under a tropical storm watch, the NHC isnt acknowledging it on their map nor their advisories.

They issued it for their coastal waters, not the coastline.

The individual offices also issue Inland Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings and Inland Hurricane Watches and Warnings.

[bahamaswx]

Looking elongated. Is the turn imminent?

[WxEnthus]

Hmm so the NHC no longer issues hurricane watches/warning for the US coast but leave it up to the local NWS offices to decide now. Looks like even though FL is under a tropical storm watch, the NHC isnt acknowledging it on their map nor their advisories.

Perhaps the area inland areas expected to be affected are not large enough to warrant a watch -- I believe there are set "points" from one locality to another that are selected for watches/warnings. I know when the NWS Storm Prediction Center issues a watch (such as for severe midwest thunderstorms) the watches cover a large, broad area. Then the local offices issue warnings and special weather statements -- and sometimes for areas not under a SPC watch. Not sure if it works the same way with the NHC, but I'm thinking there is probably a good reason the land areas of FL aren't under a NHC issued watch (yet anyway).

The information IS out there, even if it's issued from a different NOAA department. Folks should be paying attention to their area's NWS office for important local information -- it'd be hard to miss if they tuned into any local news channel or picked up a local paper. The NWS graph you posted shows the coastal waters are clearly under tropical watch conditions, that there are advisory statements for much of the coastal areas (purple) and hazardous outlook statements for a lot of the inland portions.

[umguy]

Looking elongated. Is the turn imminent?

That that ridge sitting on top of her. Sorry posted wrong one at first. [img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[dwsqos2]

Well, it looks pretty now. SAB was at T5.5 at 0545Z. The earlier recon data did show some lag between satellite presentation and actual intensity.

[Cyclenall]

The loop of Irene shows significant strengthening underway right now, those bands of deep convection are rapidly swirling around the eye and it's both clearing out and becoming stable. Might be a major by sunrise.

I see the track takes it directly into New York City as a 75-knot hurricane. If it were to be a CAT2 and more to the west this would be one of the doomsday scenarios for the US relating to tropical cyclones. I think Hurricane Irene has the highest potential of carrying that out then any I have ever seen...the direction late in the forecast period and speed have to be synchronized finely.

The ADT estimates are flying off the charts:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947.5mb/ 109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.6

[TCmet]

I have a bad feeling recon is going to be surprised on the first pass through this morning....

The loop of Irene shows significant strengthening underway right now, those bands of deep convection are rapidly swirling around the eye and it's both clearing out and becoming stable. Might be a major by sunrise.

I see the track takes it directly into New York City as a 75-knot hurricane. If it were to be a CAT2 and more to the west this would be one of the doomsday scenarios for the US relating to tropical cyclones. I think Hurricane Irene has the highest potential of carrying that out then any I have ever seen...the direction late in the forecast period and speed have to be synchronized finely.

The ADT estimates are flying off the charts:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947.5mb/ 109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.6

[Brent]

...IRENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT POUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 72.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES