ATL: IRENE - Models

[HurrMark]

***Very*** slightly west of the 00Z run at 114h...maybe 10-20 miles or so (cutting across Cape Cod vs. clipping Cape Cod). But this could indicate that the eastward trend has stopped for now...

[xironman]

I guess it will be interesting to see what the hurricane models do this run since they are using the GFS for a base.

[xironman]

Have you guys noticed this on wunderground, it is great for close ups of the Euro

[jpigott]

The 06z GFS is rolling in at the moment and at 54 hours it appears to be about 1 degree to the north-west of the 00z run. Also shows Irene tracking a bit more west in the short term and then feeling the trough properly in 24-36 hours with the forward speed increasing a bit near the 36+ hour range.

What's her closest point of approach to FL in the 06z GFS?

[HurrMark]

Have you guys noticed this on wunderground, it is great for close ups of the Euro

Do you have a link? I can't find it...

[xironman]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ use Model Data on the right hand side. Here is the Euro at the closest approach to FL at 45hrs. Yes they have 3hr increments.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thats's cool and informative. Good find

[HurrMark]

Thats's cool and informative. Good find

Ditto...

[tolakram]

GFS 06 run, saved images

[tolakram]

CMC 12 run, saved images

[tolakram]

euro 0z saved image

[tolakram]

HWRF and GFDL saved images

[BensonTCwatcher]

UKMet is bringing it further west and closer to FL. It's taking into account the ridge has built back in. Aric has been saying it could happen.

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hmm not seeing that in the GFS or ECMWF e.g. the ridging looks different here. Going to need to see this set up in a consensus before I am giving it much at this point. Suspect the initilaizations are a bit different of the UKMET or don't have the upper airdata of the GFS or ECMWF, but that's over my head.

[BigA]

06 HWRF is a bit right of the 00, while the 06 GFDL is a a bit left.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... hour=096hr

shifted about 100 miles east. center stays well off hatteras now.

[rainstorm]

06 HWRF is a bit right of the 00, while the 06 GFDL is a a bit left.

do you have a link for gfdl?

[vacanechaser]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011082406-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr

shifted about 100 miles east. center stays well off hatteras now.

i justy cant imagine that playing out like that... a total miss on the the outer banks and then a shift like that into new england... i cant really remember many storms if any on that type track... looks odd to me... i think it either misses altogether, or its up over the outer banks and into the north east


just my opinion


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jpigott]

UKMet looks to track over Grand Bahama, instead of the Abacos. If that track panned out, coastal SEFL could get TS conditions

[tolakram]

... and the last time the UKMET was right about a track was ....

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011082406-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr

shifted about 100 miles east. center stays well off hatteras now.

i justy cant imagine that playing out like that... a total miss on the the outer banks and then a shift like that into new england... i cant really remember many storms if any on that type track... looks odd to me... i think it either misses altogether, or its up over the outer banks and into the north east


just my opinion


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

didnt gloria do something like that? looked like it would head just west of hatteras, then jogged ne. missed hatteras then turned back north. does seem odd though