ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

753
URNT15 KNHC 241312
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 26 20110824
130230 2140N 07258W 6970 03030 //// +097 //// 207065 065 /// /// 05
130300 2141N 07300W 6966 03030 //// +099 //// 209064 064 /// /// 05
130330 2143N 07301W 6970 03019 //// +105 //// 207066 067 /// /// 05
130400 2144N 07303W 6965 03020 //// +106 //// 205068 069 /// /// 05
130430 2145N 07304W 6958 03023 //// +086 //// 201072 076 /// /// 05
130500 2147N 07306W 6973 03001 //// +098 //// 203073 074 /// /// 05
130530 2148N 07307W 6963 03007 //// +100 //// 203078 080 /// /// 05
130600 2149N 07308W 6967 02992 //// +086 //// 201082 083 /// /// 05
130630 2151N 07310W 6969 02979 //// +084 //// 203082 084 /// /// 05
130700 2152N 07311W 6963 02980 //// +092 //// 207074 078 /// /// 05
130730 2153N 07313W 6970 02965 //// +104 //// 207075 077 /// /// 05
130800 2155N 07314W 6966 02957 //// +109 //// 208076 077 /// /// 05
130830 2156N 07316W 6969 02941 //// +104 //// 207080 080 /// /// 05
130900 2157N 07317W 6962 02935 //// +112 //// 208083 084 /// /// 05
130930 2159N 07318W 6967 02910 //// +113 //// 209086 086 /// /// 05
131000 2159N 07318W 6967 02910 //// +119 //// 211089 091 /// /// 05
131030 2201N 07321W 6964 02877 //// +117 //// 210094 097 /// /// 05
131100 2203N 07323W 6959 02853 //// +113 //// 213099 102 /// /// 05
131130 2204N 07324W 6970 02816 //// +127 //// 217087 095 /// /// 05
131200 2205N 07325W 6971 02797 //// +138 //// 214065 072 /// /// 05
$$
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[Aric Dunn]

aric-what are your thoughts this morning? ridge still holding strong for how long? still looking at the outer banks for a hit?

Well right now I am just watching that shortwave and trying to match it with the models. if that short wave is at all not as amplified or is slower at eroding the ridging then this motion could continue for a little longer potentially bringing the coast within TS winds. right now the TS winds are forecast to be only 15 to 20 miles off shore. Any deviation left of the track could put them on shore. So its a matter of timing here with that short wave and the weakening of the ridging again. So just watching that... I wobble watching but this time they all count being that the angle of approach is prone to deviations that could make this better or worse for florida.

[CronkPSU]

i would go with poorly organized core, I still think it is still having "problems" stacking/organizing for whatever reason, winds are still struggling to meet pressure

[sandyb]

he is a very good and caring weatherman
he doenst care avout ratings but really cares about his viewers
dont thk he is jumping the gun but just trying to give us a heads up just in case the storm jogs to the west-
he doesnt think the front will be as strong as they are indicating it to be'
skip has been on tv 12 a long time and he is a great weatherman and doenst have to plug his ratings

that is not what i meant and it wasnt skip

[sandyb]

he is a very good and caring weatherman
he doenst care avout ratings but really cares about his viewers
dont thk he is jumping the gun but just trying to give us a heads up just in case the storm jogs to the west-
he doesnt think the front will be as strong as they are indicating it to be'
skip has been on tv 12 a long time and he is a great weatherman and doenst have to plug his ratings

that is not what i meant and it wasnt skip

also I have been talking to Bobby Deskins he says just off shore but things could change

[gatorcane]

Right now seems like she is behaving and if anything a little east of the NHC forecast points. No doubt she is feeling the weakness and I can't see any reason why she won't continue to move NW. There just is not enough ridging to move here a whole lot more west....

another huge break in the ridge along the Eastern Seaboard and Western Atlantic, very similar to the weakness that Emily a few weeks ago went through except this time the westerlies are not as pronounced above 30N to bend her NE/ENE.

The second trough near the Great Lakes will just reinforce, the weakness is already there from the first trough that punched a big hole in the ridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

[TheBurn]

8:45AM EDT Irene, Trough, Shortwave...

[RL3AO]

904
URNT15 KNHC 241322
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 27 20110824
131230 2206N 07327W 6974 02770 //// +150 //// 216041 047 /// /// 05
131300 2208N 07328W 6966 02772 //// +160 //// 210032 036 /// /// 05
131330 2209N 07330W 6969 02759 //// +160 //// 201024 025 /// /// 05
131400 2209N 07332W 6962 02767 //// +154 //// 188015 020 /// /// 05
131430 2209N 07334W 6965 02761 //// +166 //// 172005 009 /// /// 05
131500 2209N 07335W 6973 02748 //// +161 //// 053002 003 /// /// 05
131530 2209N 07337W 6982 02736 //// +172 //// 005009 014 /// /// 05
131600 2210N 07339W 6962 02766 //// +170 //// 026024 028 /// /// 05
131630 2212N 07340W 6967 02763 //// +174 //// 025037 043 /// /// 05
131700 2213N 07341W 6963 02769 //// +186 //// 022051 056 /// /// 05
131730 2214N 07343W 6966 02780 //// +154 //// 022051 056 /// /// 05
131800 2215N 07344W 6970 02787 //// +172 //// 024069 071 /// /// 05
131830 2216N 07345W 6963 02811 //// +160 //// 030080 090 /// /// 05
131900 2217N 07346W 6966 02825 //// +135 //// 036083 084 /// /// 05
131930 2218N 07347W 6967 02847 //// +125 //// 038084 087 /// /// 05
132000 2220N 07348W 6978 02855 //// +117 //// 037083 085 /// /// 05
132030 2221N 07349W 6962 02890 //// +118 //// 042087 088 /// /// 05
132100 2222N 07351W 6967 02900 //// +123 //// 047088 092 /// /// 05
132130 2223N 07352W 6967 02920 //// +118 //// 049083 083 /// /// 05
132200 2224N 07353W 6969 02928 //// +120 //// 051082 084 /// /// 05
$$
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267
URNT15 KWBC 241323
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 31 20110824
131330 2240N 07208W 7516 02493 0021 +130 +107 141074 074 052 007 00
131400 2243N 07209W 7518 02490 0016 +134 +109 140073 073 053 007 00
131430 2245N 07210W 7519 02488 0017 +134 +110 139074 075 052 008 00
131500 2247N 07212W 7517 02492 0023 +127 +116 138074 074 052 007 00
131530 2250N 07213W 7519 02489 0021 +128 +116 137073 074 053 006 00
131600 2252N 07214W 7520 02487 0020 +128 +118 135073 074 051 006 00
131630 2254N 07215W 7519 02488 0024 +125 +119 135073 073 050 007 00
131700 2257N 07216W 7516 02493 0025 +125 +119 135073 074 049 007 00
131730 2259N 07218W 7519 02490 0023 +127 +121 134074 075 048 008 00
131800 2301N 07219W 7517 02494 0024 +127 +123 133074 075 049 008 00
131830 2304N 07220W 7518 02492 0023 +128 +124 133074 074 050 009 00
131900 2306N 07221W 7518 02494 0025 +129 +120 132073 074 050 010 00
131930 2308N 07223W 7519 02494 0023 +131 +121 132072 073 050 010 00
132000 2311N 07224W 7519 02495 0023 +133 +120 134072 073 051 010 00
132030 2312N 07226W 7520 02493 0024 +131 +123 135076 077 /// /// 03
132100 2312N 07228W 7521 02491 0021 +132 +117 131078 079 050 010 03
132130 2311N 07230W 7518 02492 0022 +130 +114 128075 075 051 010 00
132200 2310N 07231W 7519 02487 0018 +128 +121 127075 076 051 010 00
132230 2308N 07233W 7520 02483 0017 +127 +124 127076 077 051 006 00
132300 2307N 07234W 7519 02482 0011 +131 +120 126079 079 052 005 00

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

As far as exact positioning of the system is concerned yes. The fact that it sniffed it out so long before is pretty interesting though. If you see GFS showing something for the um-teen number of times in a row was good though. GFS is not good with upper to mid-levels in the long term we all know that.

[RL3AO]

SE Eyewall



280
UZNT13 KNHC 241322
XXAA 74137 99221 70734 08023 99965 26400 16089 00820 ///// /////
92370 23800 19102 85110 20802 19597 70773 12400 21595 88999 77999
31313 09608 81311
61616 AF303 1409A IRENE OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2214N07337W 1314 MBL WND 18098 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 19599 964697 WL150 17098 083 REL 2206N07340W 131123 SPG 221
4N07337W 131428 =
XXBB 74138 99221 70734 08023 00965 26400 11850 20802 22697 12200
21212 00965 16089 11963 16095 22958 17094 33948 17604 44934 18597
55928 18602 66913 19597 77887 19601 88878 19091 99868 19597 11850
19597 22753 20610 33697 21593
31313 09608 81311
61616 AF303 1409A IRENE OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2214N07337W 1314 MBL WND 18098 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 19599 964697 WL150 17098 083 REL 2206N07340W 131123 SPG 221
4N07337W 131428 =
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89kts surface

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

no how can you know if anything "unexpected" is going on? Then wouldn't it be expected?

Yeah... I totally misspoke there. It should have read 'nothing *unusual* is going on'. As in - no other major storm, no weird pressure cell acting odd, etc.

[littlevince]

[viberama]

Is there some shear on the west Side of Irene? It looks like it to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

no they did not actually they did extremely well so far and should only be outside the original area because at the time most of the models did not run this far anyway... this was an image I made last monday of the long range models the prior two days. so last sat and sun..

[CronkPSU]

no how can you know if anything "unexpected" is going on? Then wouldn't it be expected?

Yeah... I totally misspoke there. It should have read 'nothing *unusual* is going on'. As in - no other major storm, no weird pressure cell acting odd, etc.

could this persistent little low sitting off the coast of SC/Ga be one of those unknowns?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

As far as exact positioning of the system is concerned yes. The fact that it sniffed it out so long before is pretty interesting though. If you see GFS showing something for the um-teen number of times in a row was good though. GFS is not good with upper to mid-levels in the long term we all know that.

Yea, good points. The economy sure couldn't deal with a landfall, so I'm glad that Irene is now expected to recurve from the USA, although it could hit Rhode Island as an extra-tropical storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

Talk about real-time info for the NHC. When there are two planes in there and a G-IV flight going on, you know something is up.

[jlauderdal]

As a statistician (of sorts), this continual "eastward trend" of the past couple days bugs me.

If each forecast track is the best estimate at the time of the advisory, the next advisory should have about the same likelihood of shifting west as of shifting east again.

It almost makes me wonder if they shift the track gradually, rather than all at once, so as to give a sense of continuity and not confuse people with wildly erratic forecasts. Or more cynically, to not give casual observers the impression that they're clueless or incompetent.

i have seen the word continuity used in more than a few discussions over the years, they are smart not to bite these new solutions every 6 hours, most people on this board dont bite either, most

[RL3AO]

281
URNT15 KNHC 241332
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 28 20110824
132230 2226N 07355W 6968 02943 //// +114 //// 053078 079 /// /// 05
132300 2227N 07356W 6967 02959 //// +110 //// 054076 076 /// /// 05
132330 2228N 07357W 6969 02967 //// +113 //// 054075 076 /// /// 05
132400 2229N 07359W 6966 02980 //// +111 //// 056073 074 /// /// 05
132430 2231N 07400W 6973 02982 //// +095 //// 056072 073 /// /// 05
132500 2232N 07401W 6962 03001 //// +101 //// 056070 071 /// /// 05
132530 2233N 07403W 6967 02999 //// +108 //// 059073 074 /// /// 05
132600 2235N 07404W 6969 03007 //// +099 //// 061073 074 /// /// 05
132630 2236N 07405W 6975 03002 //// +088 //// 060073 075 /// /// 05
132700 2237N 07407W 6964 03023 //// +097 //// 062070 071 /// /// 05
132730 2239N 07408W 6968 03024 //// +098 //// 066072 074 /// /// 05
132800 2240N 07410W 6968 03030 //// +093 //// 061070 071 /// /// 05
132830 2241N 07411W 6969 03034 //// +088 //// 064069 071 /// /// 05
132900 2243N 07412W 6962 03046 //// +084 //// 068066 068 /// /// 05
132930 2244N 07414W 6966 03050 //// +078 //// 069070 071 /// /// 05
133000 2245N 07415W 6976 03046 //// +068 //// 059068 070 /// /// 05
133030 2247N 07417W 6971 03058 //// +060 //// 038069 076 /// /// 05
133100 2248N 07418W 6965 03061 //// +065 //// 031061 062 /// /// 05
133130 2249N 07419W 6971 03056 //// +088 //// 024058 059 /// /// 05
133200 2250N 07420W 6959 03072 //// +096 //// 023059 060 /// /// 05
$$
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