WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF is also showing tha tstorm comming very close to Okinawa..you know looking at the latest ECMWF track remind you of Songda a little bit....

This run seems to hold off on the Fujiwara a bit long and track Nanmadol a lot closer to Taiwan before the "dancing TCs" rubbish begins.

GFS 00z takes a very strong typhoon right over Okinawa!

[dexterlabio]

Oh I've just read the comment you gave on my personal forecast Rob haha thank you about that but actually I just based it from what the Euro has been showing for several runs now.


Nanmadol is looking really good right now! I won't be surprised if we see a typhoon tonight or tomorrow midnight.

[dexterlabio]

Latest run from Euro kinda tells that if there won't be any system affecting Nanmadol's movement at long range then Taiwan will be the one in trouble. If that 95W blob near Guam will become typhoon "Talas" to interact with Nanmadol, Taiwan should thank him.

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like the "two centers" might actually be converging bit by bit now based on the AMSRE MWI...

anyway, looks like there's some temperature inversion on Nanmadol... if we apply the same reasoning from GCANE's post in the IRENE thread, this could temporarily put a "lid on convection"... but it could very well become a typhoon tomorrow morning (Asia Time) especially if that Diurnal max helps it with convection...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Infdidoll]

looks like the "two centers" might actually be converging bit by bit now based on the AMSRE MWI...

anyway, looks like there's some temperature inversion on Nanmadol... if we apply the same reasoning from GCANE's post in the IRENE thread, this could temporarily put a "lid on convection"... but it could very well become a typhoon tomorrow morning (Asia Time) especially if that Diurnal max helps it with convection...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

In total idiot terms (aka. for people like me), what does that mean? Sorry, I learn a lot here, but I can't learn if I don't ask!

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like the "two centers" might actually be converging bit by bit now based on the AMSRE MWI...

anyway, looks like there's some temperature inversion on Nanmadol... if we apply the same reasoning from GCANE's post in the IRENE thread, this could temporarily put a "lid on convection"... but it could very well become a typhoon tomorrow morning (Asia Time) especially if that Diurnal max helps it with convection...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

In total idiot terms (aka. for people like me), what does that mean? Sorry, I learn a lot here, but I can't learn if I don't ask!

nah it's okay, it's just my amateur "analysis" too based on what i read here so we all learn ahaha...

anyway if you look at this 89Ghz Color image you see the apparent eye centered near 16N 126.4E


if you look at this Color Image (37Ghz), the center is forming somewhere near 16N 126.8E


so they're not yet in line or stacked vertically...
you can read more in here:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_training ... index.html
and here:
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo241/node/2303

anyway as for the temp inversion, that was just an idea i got from GCANE, not really sure if the same reasoning applies for Nanmadol but i've read somewhere that temp inversion is usually associated with subsidence so logically, you would think it would kinda limit the convection in the storm... look at the first graph below: you see that there's a -0.5C temp anomaly just above the surface (near 2km) that's what he was kinda alluding to in the IRENE thread; but look to around 10-12km and you see a very high temp anomaly of about +3C which is a good thing if you want further intensification



i'm not a met so take this information lightly, lol...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Infdidoll]

No, no! It's cool! I think I've met some amateurs that were just as good as any educated met because they were passionate about learning and just darn smart people, like yourself. I really appreciate the explanation. That's my favorite part of this forum is the statistical and analytical approach to storm-tracking. The more we learn, the more we can approach these storms from a scientific standpoint. I started coming here because I was terrified of these storms, now I just find them fascinating and love learning all I can.

Really interesting information here. It's my birthday so I think we're getting ready to head out for a birthday dinner and then I want to come back and read those links. Thank you and GCane for the info!

[Chacor]

55 kt STS...

WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 16.1N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 17.2N 126.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 260600UTC 18.3N 127.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 270600UTC 19.7N 126.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

JTWC also at 55 kt:
WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.8N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.8N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 126.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 14W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 240500Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 24/00Z WARNING POSITION WAS REPOSITIONED WEST
ABOUT 55 NM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY AND SLOWLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 96, TS 14W WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT (FUJIWARA) WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (CURRENT
TCFA SYSTEM) EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THIS WILL
INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED POOR AND
HAS ALSO FLUCTUATED FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH A LARGE SPREAD
(APPROXIMATELY 550NM AT TAU 120) IN SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//

[euro6208]

the latest euro forecast has nanmadol bombing between taiwan and luzon while 97W intensifying to major typhoon status. both are forecast to hit japan

[dexterlabio]

Latest IR showing continuous cooling.


I'm not sure but I think this is wobbling to the south/south-southeast right now. Also, DT up to 4.0 according to JTWC latest satfix. I expect an upgrade from them soon. JMA still remains at 55kts.

STS 1111 (NANMADOL)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 August 2011

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°05'(16.1°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S280km(150NM)
N190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)


(by the way, I just learned that I need to upload first any image I'm putting in this forum. sorry for that)

[StormingB81]

I wonder if JMA going to follow GFS gw NW then back into Okinawa

[StormingB81]

5 day JMA has it bending back towards us at the end..seems liek more and more right now we maybe the target..but we shall see how close it will come

[dexterlabio]

5-day JMA forecast track

[dexterlabio]

^Similar to Euro 00z run.

[dexterlabio]

NRL=60kts

[StormingB81]

I told the wife if the track dont change any friday we going to go buy stuff to beat the "rush" of people to the store

[RobWESTPACWX]

5 day JMA has it bending back towards us at the end..seems liek more and more right now we maybe the target..but we shall see how close it will come

Looking more and more like that may be a possibility.

[Chacor]

Big question remains the potential DCI with 97W.

[StormingB81]

I thought 97 was all but done earlier...looks like it is trying to make a comeback..

[dexterlabio]

97W hanging in there and still has potential to be the next named TC imo. Also the models supporting the development of the two (Nanmadol and probably 97W) storms have become pretty consistent for some days now. The question will be how strong 97W can be and how it will affect Nanmadol's movement, or maybe the other way around if Nanmadol becomes way too strong for the other system to affect it.

(The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)