ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I think the only way the track would shift back west is if the first trough split and she pumped up some ridging between her and the second trough. Even in that scenario the second trough would probably arrive in time to keep the eye off the east coast of Florida. There isn't any sounding data suggesting a strengthening ridge is there?

well yeah, the ridging was supposed to build in slightly today since the first trough lifted out yesterday...which it has... it is then supposed to be weakened by the shortwave.

[littlevince]

AF303

000
URNT15 KNHC 241422
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 33 20110824
141230 2209N 07453W 6969 03070 //// +105 //// 349049 050 /// /// 05
141300 2207N 07452W 6962 03076 //// +104 //// 348050 051 /// /// 05
141330 2205N 07452W 6969 03066 //// +098 //// 344047 049 /// /// 05
141400 2203N 07452W 6967 03068 //// +100 //// 342046 046 /// /// 05
141430 2201N 07451W 6963 03074 //// +107 //// 344048 049 /// /// 05
141500 2158N 07451W 6970 03081 //// +101 //// 344050 051 /// /// 05
141530 2156N 07450W 6963 03089 //// +095 //// 345053 053 /// /// 05
141600 2154N 07450W 6970 03063 //// +102 //// 341053 054 /// /// 05
141630 2152N 07449W 6969 03068 //// +105 //// 342055 056 /// /// 05
141700 2150N 07449W 6964 03075 //// +103 //// 342058 059 /// /// 05
141730 2147N 07448W 6967 03074 //// +104 //// 338058 059 /// /// 05
141800 2145N 07448W 6970 03072 //// +106 //// 338056 056 /// /// 05
141830 2143N 07448W 6961 03084 //// +103 //// 336054 055 /// /// 05
141900 2141N 07447W 6971 03073 //// +100 //// 332051 051 /// /// 05
141930 2139N 07447W 6966 03082 //// +102 //// 329051 051 /// /// 05
142000 2136N 07446W 6966 03082 //// +105 //// 325050 050 /// /// 05
142030 2134N 07445W 6967 03082 //// +106 //// 323049 050 /// /// 05
142100 2133N 07444W 6966 03085 //// +106 //// 315044 045 /// /// 05
142130 2132N 07442W 6969 03079 //// +102 //// 311041 041 /// /// 05
142200 2132N 07440W 6967 03078 //// +100 //// 310040 042 /// /// 05
$$
;

[mf_dolphin]

my wife's family owns some property in Bimini - how bad does it look for Bimini on the current track?

Based on the forecast track and current wind field Bimini sould be on the outer edge of tropical storm force winds. That could change a lot in 24 hours but that's the way it looks now.

[tolakram]

latest visible


from http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Battlebrick]

Irene is currently encountering 20 kts of shear, but that will drop off to 8 kts at around the midnight area.

[CrazyC83]

Irene is currently encountering 20 kts of shear, but that will drop off to 8 kts at around the midnight area.

Better hope an ERC is underway then, since if it is strengthening with 20 kt of shear, it could be RI'ing with 8 kt of shear.

[psyclone]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

very good news, especially considering the gfdl has been playing catch up all along. this storm makes me long for a return of the 3 day forecast track.

[CronkPSU]

definitely is tracking the same as it was earlier today, Irene has made a beeline to <edit> Crooked Island since about 3AM

[Duffy1966]

this is a stupid question, but I am on the Coast of Maine, Am I going to have to start watching this? and if so, how bad will it get up here?

[littlevince]

AF303
000
URNT15 KNHC 241432
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 34 20110824
142230 2132N 07438W 6963 03080 //// +099 //// 308043 044 /// /// 05
142300 2133N 07436W 6969 03073 //// +098 //// 312047 048 /// /// 05
142330 2134N 07435W 6965 03073 //// +095 //// 313049 049 /// /// 05
142400 2136N 07434W 6971 03064 //// +092 //// 313052 053 /// /// 05
142430 2137N 07432W 6967 03067 //// +101 //// 318055 057 /// /// 05
142500 2138N 07431W 6964 03062 //// +105 //// 320059 059 /// /// 05
142530 2139N 07430W 6972 03051 //// +104 //// 320060 061 /// /// 05
142600 2140N 07428W 6966 03053 //// +100 //// 320061 061 /// /// 05
142630 2142N 07427W 6969 03046 //// +107 //// 318061 062 /// /// 05
142700 2143N 07426W 6964 03047 //// +107 //// 316061 062 /// /// 05
142730 2144N 07425W 6970 03036 //// +104 //// 313066 069 /// /// 05
142800 2145N 07423W 6970 03033 //// +098 //// 312069 070 /// /// 05
142830 2146N 07422W 6965 03036 //// +098 //// 313070 070 /// /// 05
142900 2148N 07421W 6965 03029 //// +090 //// 314073 074 /// /// 05
142930 2149N 07419W 6966 03019 //// +085 //// 310071 072 /// /// 05
143000 2150N 07418W 6969 03012 //// +089 //// 315073 077 /// /// 05
143030 2151N 07417W 6969 03003 //// +095 //// 318064 068 /// /// 05
143100 2153N 07416W 6967 03000 //// +099 //// 319059 060 /// /// 05
143130 2154N 07414W 6970 02994 //// +106 //// 312056 058 /// /// 05
143200 2155N 07413W 6964 02994 //// +106 //// 312055 055 /// /// 05
$$
;



NOAA2
000
URNT15 KWBC 241433
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 38 20110824
142330 2206N 07507W 7389 02623 9994 +134 +093 355038 039 038 000 00
142400 2207N 07509W 7223 02813 9988 +127 +083 353038 039 038 000 00
142430 2208N 07510W 7065 02998 9981 +121 +072 355041 041 038 000 00
142500 2209N 07511W 6883 03216 9977 +112 +058 351040 041 037 001 00
142530 2211N 07513W 6760 03370 9982 +101 +046 351038 039 037 000 00
142600 2212N 07514W 6680 03471 9983 +096 +041 350038 038 036 000 00
142630 2213N 07516W 6562 03622 9981 +090 +030 349037 038 035 001 00
142700 2214N 07517W 6421 03803 9982 +079 +024 349036 037 034 000 00
142730 2216N 07519W 6316 03939 9984 +070 +019 351037 037 034 001 00
142800 2217N 07521W 6232 04049 9987 +062 +016 353036 037 034 001 00
142830 2218N 07522W 6116 04207 9988 +052 +009 354038 039 033 001 00
142900 2219N 07524W 6011 04347 9991 +041 +005 356037 038 035 000 00
142930 2221N 07525W 5881 04526 9990 +031 +002 000037 037 034 001 00
143000 2222N 07527W 5791 04652 9984 +027 -003 006038 039 033 000 00
143030 2223N 07528W 5714 04762 9985 +021 -010 009040 041 033 001 00
143100 2225N 07530W 5615 04906 9986 +013 -017 008040 041 033 002 00
143130 2226N 07532W 5511 05058 9992 +002 -025 008039 040 032 001 00
143200 2227N 07533W 5461 05133 0216 +003 -037 006038 039 031 000 00
143230 2228N 07535W 5403 05223 0224 -003 -039 007038 039 031 000 00
143300 2230N 07536W 5337 05323 0232 -005 -052 009039 040 030 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

well that a little weird thing to see.. some convection building in the eye...lol must be because of the tilt...

[tolakram]

20kts of shear?

from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#



15 kts maybe, but difficult to analyze in a strong system. I believe, and perhaps a pro can correct or confirm, that the shear is derived from the position and strength of the high pressure and the assumed effect on the surrounding area.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

very good news, especially considering the gfdl has been playing catch up all along. this storm makes me long for a return of the 3 day forecast track.

We have TWC on one of our 58" plasma screens in ops. I'm particularly enjoying the live reports of West Palm Beach "bracing for impact" when they show a guy with a giant pot belly sitting under an umbrella with a cooler of beer nearby. Yep, they're getting ready for impact.

Might not even get much in the way of showers as Irene passes well to the east. Some cirrus, probably.

[Sanibel]

Irene about to impact Crooked Island, Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

this is a stupid question, but I am on the Coast of Maine, Am I going to have to start watching this? and if so, how bad will it get up here?

A Category 1 is probably as bad as it could get there, but still could be very fierce. It would likely also be well on its way to becoming extratropical then.

[RL3AO]

NOAA flight is done

[Bocadude85]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

very good news, especially considering the gfdl has been playing catch up all along. this storm makes me long for a return of the 3 day forecast track.

We have TWC on one of our 58" plasma screens in ops. I'm particularly enjoying the live reports of West Palm Beach "bracing for impact" when they show a guy with a giant pot belly sitting under an umbrella with a cooler of beer nearby. Yep, they're getting ready for impact.

Might not even get much in the way of showers as Irene passes well to the east. Some cirrus, probably.

Thats the best way to brace for impact isnt it? Anyhow winds are slowly on the increase here in Boca Raton..

[capepoint]

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

[bahamaswx]

Irene about to impact Crooked Island, Bahamas.

Very very sparsely populated, as is the entire southern Bahamas. Will be interesting to see if she landfalls on long island next, or passed to the east.

[Duffy1966]

this is a stupid question, but I am on the Coast of Maine, Am I going to have to start watching this? and if so, how bad will it get up here?

A Category 1 is probably as bad as it could get there, but still could be very fierce. It would likely also be well on its way to becoming extratropical then.

okay thanks, if we do get something up here, will let yous all know we made out