ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

I know the feeling. I remember how I felt when the then Cat 5 Rita forecast changed from just southwest of me to about 30 miles east of me. Could have lost the house and everything in it if that track hadn't shifted east. Let's hope the east shift continues.

[SNOW_JOKE]

300,000 currently preparing to hunker down in Nassau. So not entirely 'sparsely populated.' Especially when you count tourists, hoteliers and the like amongst them.

[Deputy Van Halen]

As a statistician (of sorts), this continual "eastward trend" of the past couple days bugs me.

If each forecast track is the best estimate at the time of the advisory, the next advisory should have about the same likelihood of shifting west as of shifting east again.

It almost makes me wonder if they shift the track gradually, rather than all at once, so as to give a sense of continuity and not confuse people with wildly erratic forecasts. Or more cynically, to not give casual observers the impression that they're clueless or incompetent.

haha.. of course they do. human analysis and experience will out do a model in that sense. dont think its to confuse people more they realize models have no ability to judge minute by minute the surroundings.

If this "trending" thing is the norm for how forecast tracks play out, it colors the way we should look at those forecasts. As soon as the forecast for Irene went from hitting south Florida head-on to going parallel to the Florida coast, the conclusion would have been "probably a recurve away from CONUS". Sitting here in Galveston County, TX, let's say I see a storm 4 days out forecast to come straight at me. If the next advisory shifts 50 miles east up the coast, I would think "probably going to the Florida panhandle". If it shifts 50 miles the other way, I think "probably Yucatan".

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241442
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 35 20110824
143230 2156N 07412W 6969 02980 //// +110 //// 311054 055 /// /// 05
143300 2157N 07410W 6970 02974 //// +117 //// 310056 056 /// /// 05
143330 2159N 07409W 6964 02971 //// +115 //// 308054 055 /// /// 05
143400 2200N 07408W 6970 02955 //// +119 //// 306055 056 /// /// 05
143430 2201N 07406W 6961 02961 //// +119 //// 306061 062 /// /// 05
143500 2203N 07405W 6971 02937 //// +129 //// 307064 065 /// /// 05
143530 2204N 07403W 6966 02928 //// +148 //// 306065 066 /// /// 05
143600 2205N 07402W 6963 02916 //// +155 //// 303066 066 /// /// 05
143630 2206N 07401W 6967 02894 //// +148 //// 301066 067 /// /// 05
143700 2208N 07359W 6969 02872 //// +161 //// 300071 073 /// /// 05
143730 2209N 07358W 6962 02862 //// +170 //// 298070 072 /// /// 05
143800 2210N 07356W 6964 02833 //// +174 //// 294068 069 /// /// 05
143830 2212N 07355W 6965 02803 //// +190 //// 294065 065 /// /// 05
143900 2213N 07354W 6969 02776 //// +171 //// 284046 056 /// /// 05
143930 2215N 07353W 6973 02758 //// +163 //// 286019 024 /// /// 05
144000 2217N 07352W 6962 02761 //// +173 //// 285007 012 /// /// 05
144030 2219N 07352W 6973 02744 //// +171 //// 245002 004 /// /// 05
144100 2220N 07351W 6971 02744 //// +159 //// 100007 010 /// /// 05
144130 2222N 07351W 6970 02748 //// +165 //// 106011 013 /// /// 05
144200 2223N 07349W 6970 02742 //// +165 //// 150018 021 /// /// 05
$$
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[bahamaswx]

300,000 currently preparing to hunker down in Nassau. So not entirely 'sparsely populated.' Especially when you count tourists, hoteliers and the like amongst them.

I didn't even mention Nassau, as it's not part of the southern Bahamas. But there aren't 300,000 in Nassau either.

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

I know the feeling. I remember how I felt when the then Cat 5 Rita forecast changed from just southwest of me to about 30 miles east of me. Could have lost the house and everything in it if that track hadn't shifted east. Let's hope the east shift continues.

Now that it's clear she'll pass to my east--even if only by ~30 miles--I feel much better.

[angelwing]

Talk about real-time info for the NHC. When there are two planes in there and a G-IV flight going on, you know something is up.

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/2038 ... 1am824.png

well it possibly could affect what 80 millions people in the metroplex of DC/Philly/NYC/Boston, they better have all their resources out there

Philly ready???? When I go and do my standard food shopping this Saturday and the french toast stuff is gone then I know the people in Philly came up to get stuff since they ran out...happened for the last snow, they'll do the same for a hurricane

[SNOW_JOKE]

No you didn't mention Nassau which is why I did. People are under the assumption the Bahamas are sparsely populated when the opposite is true. And the 300,000 comes from a 2009 census so i'm afraid there are that many people. Unless you don't get out much

[sandyb]

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

i say wait till tomorrow for sure tho, but yea things are looking like we got away with not getting another one

sat might be a nice day to visit the beach and watch her go bye bye

[TheBurn]

GOES 13 VIS

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm sure the numbers of people on this forum will drop off sharply by later today .

What a change a day makes!

[gatorcane]

lots of wobbling the past few hours as it makes the turn.

You can see what I mean by checking out this VIS floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[hurricaneCW]

I kind of figured what was shown yesterday would not stay, it's extremely rare for what was shown yesterday to actually happen but nothing is set in stone just yet.

[Aric Dunn]

lots of wobbling the past few hours as it makes the turn.

You can see what I mean by checking out this VIS floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

not soo much actually.. the eye is moving alot since its tilted. recon says its still wnw about 290 to 295.

[sandyb]

I'm sure the numbers of people on this forum will drop off sharply by later today .

What a change a day makes!

yes it will but thats to bad casue there are still gonna be people in the path of the storm north of us may end up with something and need to get all the info they can get

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241452
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 36 20110824
144230 2222N 07348W 6972 02747 //// +160 //// 166021 021 /// /// 05
144300 2220N 07348W 6957 02765 //// +152 //// 167019 021 /// /// 05
144330 2219N 07349W 6969 02748 //// +150 //// 182009 013 /// /// 05
144400 2219N 07351W 6970 02748 //// +159 //// 233003 005 /// /// 05
144430 2219N 07351W 6970 02748 //// +160 //// 008005 011 /// /// 05
144500 2221N 07354W 6970 02749 //// +149 //// 022015 017 /// /// 05
144530 2222N 07355W 6965 02750 //// +157 //// 032020 024 /// /// 05
144600 2224N 07356W 6971 02748 //// +168 //// 038025 027 /// /// 05
144630 2225N 07355W 6962 02753 //// +160 //// 069016 018 /// /// 05
144700 2225N 07354W 6976 02738 //// +157 //// 105012 014 /// /// 05
144730 2223N 07353W 6959 02754 //// +160 //// 053011 013 /// /// 05
144800 2222N 07355W 6971 02744 //// +164 //// 030019 021 /// /// 05
144830 2224N 07356W 6961 02755 //// +156 //// 044015 019 /// /// 05
144900 2225N 07355W 6973 02738 //// +164 //// 097013 017 /// /// 05
144930 2225N 07353W 6961 02755 //// +168 //// 123023 023 /// /// 05
145000 2225N 07351W 6976 02743 //// +155 //// 128027 030 /// /// 05
145030 2225N 07349W 6970 02755 //// +156 //// 128042 045 /// /// 05
145100 2226N 07348W 6975 02751 //// +153 //// 131052 056 /// /// 05
145130 2227N 07347W 6957 02786 //// +133 //// 141076 083 /// /// 05
145200 2229N 07345W 6963 02802 //// +114 //// 146097 107 /// /// 05
$$
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[eastcoastFL]

some of the far outter cloud bands are starting to approach the florida coast. Hope it gets breezy soon, its so hot out!

[capepoint]

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

I know the feeling. I remember how I felt when the then Cat 5 Rita forecast changed from just southwest of me to about 30 miles east of me. Could have lost the house and everything in it if that track hadn't shifted east. Let's hope the east shift continues.

Yes, as I can see the Cape Lookout Light from my house.......even a 2 or 3 can lead to terrible flooding here.

[jlauderdal]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

very good news, especially considering the gfdl has been playing catch up all along. this storm makes me long for a return of the 3 day forecast track.

We have TWC on one of our 58" plasma screens in ops. I'm particularly enjoying the live reports of West Palm Beach "bracing for impact" when they show a guy with a giant pot belly sitting under an umbrella with a cooler of beer nearby. Yep, they're getting ready for impact.

Might not even get much in the way of showers as Irene passes well to the east. Some cirrus, probably.

they can hang around and cover the record highs coming this weekend for the east coast of Florida, unusual for us to see mid to upper 90s in the forecast

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241502
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 37 20110824
145230 2230N 07344W 6968 02830 //// +092 //// 139110 116 /// /// 05
145300 2231N 07343W 6963 02860 //// +096 //// 139101 104 /// /// 05
145330 2232N 07342W 6963 02882 //// +094 //// 139099 102 /// /// 05
145400 2233N 07340W 6965 02898 //// +103 //// 139096 098 /// /// 05
145430 2234N 07339W 6969 02911 //// +114 //// 138094 096 /// /// 05
145500 2235N 07338W 6960 02935 //// +111 //// 137095 096 /// /// 05
145530 2237N 07336W 6969 02935 //// +109 //// 138093 094 /// /// 05
145600 2238N 07335W 6971 02945 //// +110 //// 136089 090 /// /// 05
145630 2239N 07334W 6960 02967 //// +108 //// 139086 089 /// /// 05
145700 2240N 07333W 6963 02966 //// +117 //// 141084 084 /// /// 05
145730 2241N 07331W 6967 02973 //// +101 //// 140086 091 /// /// 05
145800 2242N 07330W 6971 02974 //// +103 //// 139092 096 /// /// 05
145830 2244N 07329W 6975 02979 //// +091 //// 139092 094 /// /// 05
145900 2245N 07327W 6962 02998 //// +091 //// 140089 091 /// /// 05
145930 2246N 07326W 6969 02995 //// +097 //// 140086 087 /// /// 05
150000 2247N 07325W 6967 03004 //// +092 //// 138086 087 /// /// 05
150030 2248N 07323W 6968 03008 //// +093 //// 134078 080 /// /// 05
150100 2249N 07322W 6972 03012 //// +084 //// 133082 083 /// /// 05
150130 2250N 07321W 6963 03027 //// +085 //// 133085 086 /// /// 05
150200 2251N 07320W 6969 03024 //// +089 //// 135086 087 /// /// 05
$$
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[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/14:40:40Z
B. 22 deg 19 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2706 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 311 deg 77 kt
G. 223 deg 37 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 9 C / 3055 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. OPEN S-NW
M. C18
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1409A IRENE OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 116 KT NE QUAD 14:52:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 203 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
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