ATL: IRENE - Models

[Jevo]

12z NAM +48 (for synoptic purposes only)



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12z NAM +60 (for synoptic purposes only)



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[Nimbus]

A landfall and track up through eastern Connecticut would put a huge population on the strong side of the storm. Potentially could be real trouble but if the eastern trend continues with the models most people in New England won't have a clue what they missed.

They still expecting a negative tilt front to her south as she approaches New England?

[CrazyC83]

farther Far eastern that me?

Very close.

[wxman57]

If that GFDL run verifies, my area can expect catastrophic flooding...

I don't think I'd tend to believe the model which has performed worst (with the possible exception of the UKMET) with Irene for the past week. And we're actually looking at the NAM now for a hurricane track? The NAM is only second to NOGAPS in a race for the worst hurricane model (excluding LBAR).

[jlauderdal]

If that GFDL run verifies, my area can expect catastrophic flooding...

Where is your area?

Yeah Crazy ... how about adding a location to your profile.

admins,

location should be required

[CrazyC83]

If that GFDL run verifies, my area can expect catastrophic flooding...

I don't think I'd tend to believe the model which has performed worst (with the possible exception of the UKMET) with Irene for the past week. And we're actually looking at the NAM now for a hurricane track? The NAM is only second to NOGAPS in a race for the worst hurricane model (excluding LBAR).

GFDL nailed storms in the past, but it does seem to be doing poorly this year.

[Jevo]

If that GFDL run verifies, my area can expect catastrophic flooding...

I don't think I'd tend to believe the model which has performed worst (with the possible exception of the UKMET) with Irene for the past week. And we're actually looking at the NAM now for a hurricane track? The NAM is only second to NOGAPS in a race for the worst hurricane model (excluding LBAR).

The NAM is absolutely garbage when it comes to tropical cyclone prediction.. However the short term synoptic forecasting it provides is still very valid.. I guess I should have continued to put that disclaimer on each NAM run that is posted.

Edit: I updated the 12z runs posted to avoid confusion

[PTrackerLA]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

[Lowpressure]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

I have to think back a bit for a hurricane track to shift in one direction every forecast. Usually you get a back and forth shifting for a while, until models lock in. Irene was west and went east every advisory.

[rainstorm]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

it was a good call. i guess looking back it never made sense that irene was going to hit the US with the east coast trough still established. i suppose it could still brush cape cod. i sort of hope the non landfall streak doesnt get broken like that though, lol. overall, all the models did very poorly early on with irene.

[CronkPSU]

A professional met on here posted a few days ago that Irene would scare the entire east coast while staying offshore, looks like he may be right but I would have to dig through this thread to remember who it was. Good call though!

was something like FoxWeather13...called it on Saturday!

[xironman]

Same here Jevo, I only look at the 500mb maps, ignore what it does at the surface.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Be Very Careful. A wobble down here would make all the difference in landfall.

[jhpigott]

12Z GFS should be rolling . . .

[sicktght311]

12Z is running.........

[Battlebrick]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1515Z WED AUG 24 2011 THE 12Z NAM HAS FINISHED WITHOUT DELAYS...THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR OBS AVBL FOR INGEST...13 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...76 CONUS...11 MEXICAN AND 11 CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...37 DROPSONDE AND 9 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE IRENE WERE AVBL.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +12



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12z GFS +24



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[Battlebrick]

looking more SW... oh boy.

[vbhoutex]

Just received this from a met friend. It is "a better version of the GFS" according to him.
Just giving you a head up about a version of the GFS with the EnKF used to initialize the model. Much better than the 3DVAR used in the operational

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ ... 82406.html


I thought everyone would like to see this.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

INTENSITY