ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
949 mb extrapolated.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241450
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.
THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 241438
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 73.3W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 73.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT44 KNHC 241450
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.
THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 241438
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 73.3W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 73.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 43
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Still appears pretty tilted.. surface center w side of satellite eyewall
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23703
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Frank2 wrote:It's completing another loop - hopefully (I hate when they do that - gives me the quivers):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
P.S. Last evening Brian Norcross (TWC) mentioned that the trough had set up a bit more to the west - it'd be terrible if this hurricane fooled everyone and headed this way...
Yeah I do see a bit more ridging that has built in north of it. The clouds east of NE Florida are now getting "pushed" back to the NNW. But you are right. Every wobble makes a difference. Still has not made that NNW to N turn yet but it is not supposed to right now anyway.
Irene is pulling in alot of African dust over South Florida this afternoon with hazy skies and cumulus blowing off the Atlantic that you would see in July, looks like there is alot or ridging overhead if you didn't know a hurricane was out to the southeast.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:26 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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vacanechaser
- Category 5
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
- Location: Portsmouth, Va
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
tailgater wrote:949 mb extrapolated.
ooops.. yep.. 949.. thanx.. thought i saw that... missed the extrap too.. but that is still a good drop since 11am
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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SunnyThoughts
- Category 5
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- Location: Pensacola, Florida
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sicktght311
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 86
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Re:
Stormcenter wrote:I guess maybe I'm guilty of wobble watching here but it sure does look like Irene has made more of westerly trek lately. IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Seems stair stepping to me. Dont fixate your vision on the storm. fixate it around the islands. You'll see it moved north, then west, then north again
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SouthFloridawx
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Still appears pretty tilted.. surface center w side of satellite eyewall
So you think this is what BAMS is picking up on?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
Macrocane wrote:
171130 2228N 07400W 6949 02837 //// +105 //// 220096 100 /// /// 05
171200 2227N 07359W 6958 02849 //// +106 //// 216104 106 /// /// 05
$$
;
Thats not the extrapolated surface pressure. Thats the flight level pressure (694.9mb).
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 241722
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 51 20110824
171230 2226N 07358W 6988 02828 //// +101 //// 214101 104 /// /// 05
171300 2225N 07357W 6963 02879 //// +083 //// 212096 097 /// /// 05
171330 2224N 07356W 6960 02910 //// +085 //// 212092 093 /// /// 05
171400 2223N 07355W 6965 02916 //// +091 //// 215090 092 /// /// 05
171430 2222N 07354W 6967 02924 //// +096 //// 215087 088 /// /// 05
171500 2221N 07353W 6969 02934 //// +105 //// 215084 086 /// /// 05
171530 2219N 07352W 6967 02949 //// +101 //// 214080 081 /// /// 05
171600 2218N 07350W 6965 02963 //// +096 //// 213084 086 /// /// 05
171630 2217N 07349W 6968 02973 //// +091 //// 216083 085 /// /// 05
171700 2216N 07348W 6962 02978 //// +099 //// 219085 087 /// /// 05
171730 2215N 07347W 6975 02972 //// +089 //// 215082 087 /// /// 05
171800 2214N 07346W 6967 02988 //// +084 //// 209083 087 /// /// 05
171830 2213N 07345W 6967 02996 //// +093 //// 210087 088 /// /// 05
171900 2212N 07344W 6970 02997 //// +094 //// 213082 084 /// /// 05
171930 2211N 07343W 6966 03007 //// +086 //// 214079 081 /// /// 05
172000 2210N 07342W 6975 03002 //// +080 //// 210078 079 /// /// 05
172030 2209N 07341W 6963 03024 //// +075 //// 206078 079 /// /// 05
172100 2208N 07339W 6970 03023 //// +083 //// 206078 078 /// /// 05
172130 2206N 07338W 6967 03030 //// +092 //// 206079 079 /// /// 05
172200 2205N 07337W 6962 03042 //// +091 //// 212079 081 /// /// 05
$$
URNT15 KNHC 241722
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 51 20110824
171230 2226N 07358W 6988 02828 //// +101 //// 214101 104 /// /// 05
171300 2225N 07357W 6963 02879 //// +083 //// 212096 097 /// /// 05
171330 2224N 07356W 6960 02910 //// +085 //// 212092 093 /// /// 05
171400 2223N 07355W 6965 02916 //// +091 //// 215090 092 /// /// 05
171430 2222N 07354W 6967 02924 //// +096 //// 215087 088 /// /// 05
171500 2221N 07353W 6969 02934 //// +105 //// 215084 086 /// /// 05
171530 2219N 07352W 6967 02949 //// +101 //// 214080 081 /// /// 05
171600 2218N 07350W 6965 02963 //// +096 //// 213084 086 /// /// 05
171630 2217N 07349W 6968 02973 //// +091 //// 216083 085 /// /// 05
171700 2216N 07348W 6962 02978 //// +099 //// 219085 087 /// /// 05
171730 2215N 07347W 6975 02972 //// +089 //// 215082 087 /// /// 05
171800 2214N 07346W 6967 02988 //// +084 //// 209083 087 /// /// 05
171830 2213N 07345W 6967 02996 //// +093 //// 210087 088 /// /// 05
171900 2212N 07344W 6970 02997 //// +094 //// 213082 084 /// /// 05
171930 2211N 07343W 6966 03007 //// +086 //// 214079 081 /// /// 05
172000 2210N 07342W 6975 03002 //// +080 //// 210078 079 /// /// 05
172030 2209N 07341W 6963 03024 //// +075 //// 206078 079 /// /// 05
172100 2208N 07339W 6970 03023 //// +083 //// 206078 078 /// /// 05
172130 2206N 07338W 6967 03030 //// +092 //// 206079 079 /// /// 05
172200 2205N 07337W 6962 03042 //// +091 //// 212079 081 /// /// 05
$$
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Still appears pretty tilted.. surface center w side of satellite eyewall
So you think this is what BAMS is picking up on?
well its not going to decouple or anything.. but appears the shear and the ridging are fighting each other today.. shear pushing things to the NE and the ridging trying to push her WNW still..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
RL3AO wrote:Thats not the extrapolated surface pressure. Thats the flight level pressure (694.9mb).
That's true, I'm sorry. I'm removing the blue then.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon Discussion
Still plenty of recon for the next two days.
Code: Select all
NOUS42 KNHC 241530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 24 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-085
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 25/18Z,21Z,26/00Z A. 26/00Z
B. AFXXX 2109A IRENE B. NOAA9 2209A IRENE
C. 25/1430Z C. 25/1730Z
D. 26.1N 76.5W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 25/1730Z TO 26/00Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 75
A. 26/03Z,06Z,09Z
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 B. AFXXX 2409A IRENE
A. 26/00Z C. 26/2345Z
B. NOAA2 2309A IRENE D. 27.7N 77.0W
C. 25/20Z E. 26/0530Z TO 26/12Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
A. 26/12Z A. 26/12Z
B. NOAA9 2509A IRENE B. NOAA2 2609A IRENE
C. 26/0530Z C. 26/0800Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
P-3 MISSIONS CONTINUE EVERY 12 HRS.
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littlevince
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
vacanechaser wrote:tailgater wrote:949 mb extrapolated.
ooops.. yep.. 949.. thanx.. thought i saw that... missed the extrap too.. but that is still a good drop since 11am
Drop was 954 Mb not 949 that was an error
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Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 22.5N 74.2W
Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
954mb (28.17 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 170° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb -416m (-1365 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 276m (906 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 240° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,020m (3,346 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 225° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
700mb 2,700m (8,858 ft) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 225° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:03Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Splash Location: 22.54N 74.15W
Splash Time: 17:06Z
Release Location: 22.54N 74.15W View map)
Release Time: 17:03:25Z
Splash Location: 22.54N 74.15W (
Splash Time: 17:05:54Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 225° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 953mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
954mb (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
850mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F)
740mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F)
696mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 11.6°C (52.9°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
954mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 225° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
696mb 275° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 22.5N 74.2W
Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
954mb (28.17 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 170° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb -416m (-1365 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 276m (906 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 240° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,020m (3,346 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 225° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
700mb 2,700m (8,858 ft) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 225° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:03Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Splash Location: 22.54N 74.15W
Splash Time: 17:06Z
Release Location: 22.54N 74.15W View map)
Release Time: 17:03:25Z
Splash Location: 22.54N 74.15W (
Splash Time: 17:05:54Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 225° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 953mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
954mb (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
850mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F)
740mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F)
696mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 11.6°C (52.9°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
954mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 225° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
696mb 275° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Hello I am new to this forum. I just wanted to share this amazing animation whit you.
Keep up the good work!
http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_2011 ... eVideo.mov
Keep up the good work!
http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_2011 ... eVideo.mov
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 241732
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 52 20110824
172230 2204N 07336W 6964 03039 //// +093 //// 214073 079 /// /// 05
172300 2203N 07335W 6962 03046 //// +074 //// 205067 069 /// /// 05
172330 2202N 07334W 6968 03042 //// +072 //// 202069 073 /// /// 05
172400 2201N 07333W 6970 03044 //// +073 //// 208070 072 /// /// 05
172430 2200N 07332W 6970 03046 //// +071 //// 208072 073 /// /// 05
172500 2159N 07331W 6962 03057 //// +071 //// 206072 077 /// /// 05
172530 2158N 07330W 6966 03059 //// +077 //// 207069 070 /// /// 05
172600 2157N 07329W 6970 03058 //// +092 //// 207069 070 /// /// 05
172630 2156N 07327W 6963 03070 //// +090 //// 209071 071 /// /// 05
172700 2154N 07326W 6962 03075 //// +085 //// 208070 071 /// /// 05
172730 2153N 07325W 6971 03069 //// +093 //// 209070 070 /// /// 05
172800 2152N 07324W 6971 03073 //// +098 //// 209068 069 /// /// 05
172830 2151N 07323W 6961 03087 //// +095 //// 209066 067 /// /// 05
172900 2150N 07322W 6973 03072 //// +096 //// 204059 063 /// /// 05
172930 2149N 07321W 6966 03086 //// +104 //// 204056 058 /// /// 05
173000 2148N 07320W 6970 03080 //// +093 //// 205061 062 /// /// 05
173030 2147N 07318W 6966 03091 //// +089 //// 206064 065 /// /// 05
173100 2146N 07317W 6961 03097 //// +087 //// 204063 065 /// /// 05
173130 2144N 07316W 6969 03091 //// +091 //// 204064 065 /// /// 05
173200 2143N 07315W 6967 03095 //// +095 //// 205062 063 /// /// 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 241732
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 52 20110824
172230 2204N 07336W 6964 03039 //// +093 //// 214073 079 /// /// 05
172300 2203N 07335W 6962 03046 //// +074 //// 205067 069 /// /// 05
172330 2202N 07334W 6968 03042 //// +072 //// 202069 073 /// /// 05
172400 2201N 07333W 6970 03044 //// +073 //// 208070 072 /// /// 05
172430 2200N 07332W 6970 03046 //// +071 //// 208072 073 /// /// 05
172500 2159N 07331W 6962 03057 //// +071 //// 206072 077 /// /// 05
172530 2158N 07330W 6966 03059 //// +077 //// 207069 070 /// /// 05
172600 2157N 07329W 6970 03058 //// +092 //// 207069 070 /// /// 05
172630 2156N 07327W 6963 03070 //// +090 //// 209071 071 /// /// 05
172700 2154N 07326W 6962 03075 //// +085 //// 208070 071 /// /// 05
172730 2153N 07325W 6971 03069 //// +093 //// 209070 070 /// /// 05
172800 2152N 07324W 6971 03073 //// +098 //// 209068 069 /// /// 05
172830 2151N 07323W 6961 03087 //// +095 //// 209066 067 /// /// 05
172900 2150N 07322W 6973 03072 //// +096 //// 204059 063 /// /// 05
172930 2149N 07321W 6966 03086 //// +104 //// 204056 058 /// /// 05
173000 2148N 07320W 6970 03080 //// +093 //// 205061 062 /// /// 05
173030 2147N 07318W 6966 03091 //// +089 //// 206064 065 /// /// 05
173100 2146N 07317W 6961 03097 //// +087 //// 204063 065 /// /// 05
173130 2144N 07316W 6969 03091 //// +091 //// 204064 065 /// /// 05
173200 2143N 07315W 6967 03095 //// +095 //// 205062 063 /// /// 05
$$
;
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