ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks like the CMC is faster than the GFS through 72 hours so probably can get more west before it turns. That is my guess.

[drezee]

hmmm CMC quite a bit left 12z.. nearly to the central florida coast..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow, scrapes the entire eastern seaboard coastline

The sharpness of NE movement is actually paritally dependent on 98L developing and weakening the ridge...

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm CMC quite a bit left 12z.. nearly to the central florida coast..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That's considerably left/west in the short term compared to the last CMC model, correct? Where does CMC fall in terms tropical tracking reliability?

NHC has mentioned a few times thus far in there discussions.. it get awfully close to the SC/NC border.

[seahawkjd]

hmmm CMC quite a bit left 12z.. nearly to the central florida coast..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow, scrapes the entire eastern seaboard coastline

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen a model basically draw the shape of the entire eastern seaboard from Florida to Long Island. It even juts out around NC and moves back in for Virginia.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm CMC quite a bit left 12z.. nearly to the central florida coast..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow, scrapes the entire eastern seaboard coastline

The sharpness of NE movement is actually paritally dependent on 98L developing and weakening the ridge...

actually looking at the 500mb vort and heights.. 98L helps push the ridging westward north of irene allowing this first shortwave to pass by and the second one pick it up.

[jhpigott]

Aric - What's your thinking on the short term track? Is this going to pass closer to Grand Bahama or the Abacos? Obviously could make a considerable difference as to the weather we see here on the E coast of FL.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the CMC is faster than the GFS through 72 hours so probably can get more west before it turns. That is my guess.

I am guessing its because there is more ridging that has poked back west....

[Aric Dunn]

Aric - What's your thinking on the short term track? Is this going to pass closer to Grand Bahama or the Abacos? Obviously could make a considerable difference as to the weather we see here on the E coast of FL.

well every wobble counts. right now the ridging seems to be holding so the wnw track ( according to recon) should continue for at least the next 6 hours or...which should put it just left of the 00z forecast point. after that it all depends on the ridging. either way i dont think it will make it the Florida coast unless something unforeseen changes. But TS winds are a good possibility if it maintains the wnw motion for too much longer.

[rainstorm]

http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir ... ?play=true

im posting that here because i find it interesting and may have implications to model trends. the trough off the se coast appears to be retrograding west.

[BigA]

Motion in the last 5 hours has been 307 degrees at 13.4 mph. For reference, true northwest is 315.

[GTStorm]

Aric - What's your thinking on the short term track? Is this going to pass closer to Grand Bahama or the Abacos? Obviously could make a considerable difference as to the weather we see here on the E coast of FL.

well every wobble counts. right now the ridging seems to be holding so the wnw track ( according to recon) should continue for at least the next 6 hours or...which should put it just left of the 00z forecast point. after that it all depends on the ridging. either way i dont think it will make it the Florida coast unless something unforeseen changes. But TS winds are a good possibility if it maintains the wnw motion for too much longer.

TS watch for portions of the SFL coast later this evening, maybe?

[Aric Dunn]

Motion in the last 5 hours has been 307 degrees at 13.4 mph. For reference, true northwest is 315.

yep I got 307.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric - What's your thinking on the short term track? Is this going to pass closer to Grand Bahama or the Abacos? Obviously could make a considerable difference as to the weather we see here on the E coast of FL.

well every wobble counts. right now the ridging seems to be holding so the wnw track ( according to recon) should continue for at least the next 6 hours or...which should put it just left of the 00z forecast point. after that it all depends on the ridging. either way i dont think it will make it the Florida coast unless something unforeseen changes. But TS winds are a good possibility if it maintains the wnw motion for too much longer.

TS watch for portions of the SFL coast later this evening, maybe?

not likely.. unless it keeps moving in the direction it now and starts missing forecast points.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL is a little south the 06Z through 18 hours.

Looks like it is a little slower through the Bahamas than the 06Z

[xironman]

Euro 24hrs. Maybe a touch faster with the first shortwave

[crimi481]

Canadian model run - (and few other recent Model runs) seem to be expressing a trend towars west?
Trough out - Ridge in?

[BigA]

UKMET is in through 72 hours. Looks somewhat to the west, about to make landfall near Wilmington unless it hooks drastically between 72 and 96, which is possible.

[xironman]

48 hrs, Florida missed.

[HurrMark]

GFDL is a notable shift to the east...more in line with the other models.

[xironman]

72 hrs. Euro has the second shortwave strong