ATL: IRENE - Models

[ncweatherwizard]

I am sitting in east central NC and a 50 mile west shift in track brings the eye just 30-50 miles east of me putting me either in the edge of the eye or just outside it. Small shifts still means a huge difference in eastern NC.

Sounds like you're somewhere around Greenville/Wilson/Fayetteville or so. Since it's been so dry, major flooding won't be an issue hopefully. Inland though, electricity may go out. Could get some strong winds if it tracks west. Nothing we haven't seen before. Stay hunkered down and don't get hit by any trees!

On a more serious note, this is going to be a really bad situation for property owners on the OBX regardless of what happens. Major coastal flooding and erosion is essentially certain, even if the center stays slightly offshore.

[tolakram]

Image save, please remember to save images to imageshack or http://imgur.com/ before posting so they don't expire in a few days.

[shaggy]

I am sitting in east central NC and a 50 mile west shift in track brings the eye just 30-50 miles east of me putting me either in the edge of the eye or just outside it. Small shifts still means a huge difference in eastern NC.

Sounds like you're somewhere around Greenville/Wilson/Fayetteville or so. Since it's been so dry, major flooding won't be an issue hopefully. Inland though, electricity may go out. Could get some strong winds if it tracks west. Nothing we haven't seen before. Stay hunkered down and don't get hit by any trees!

On a more serious note, this is going to be a really bad situation for property owners on the OBX regardless of what happens. Major coastal flooding and erosion is essentially certain, even if the center stays slightly offshore.

Sorta between Greenville and Chocowinity thats why a track further west from Morehead up through the sounds would put me flirting with the western eyewall and it really doesn't take much of a shift to put me in that position. A flatter or more N trajectory on the recurve instead of a NNE move and i'm in for it.

gonna be a nailbiter for the next couple of days!

[ROCK]

the 12z EURO run is a disaster made for TV and JB.... I would not discount the EURO once a hurricane is formed and has a well established core. I would take it over any of the others....HWRF has been horrible...GFDL has not been that great either with Irene.

As far as long island, NYC, NJ...I have been all over the area for work. Infrastructure is not that great, large mature trees that have not been trimmed away from roadways...its going to be realllllllyyyy bad if the 12Z EURO verifies.. Complacency in NYC for sure. None of those people have seen anything like this...I hope they prepare...

Just my 2 cents...

[KWT]

Small shifts west will make a big difference as to where the biggest threat zone will be, probably the worst case would be something close to the ECM.

going to need to watch how this evolves oh so closely guys!

[HurrMark]

Well, all in all, some models shifted west...but on the flip side, some shifted east, so in my opinion, all this probably means is that the eastward shifts have stopped for the time being. Whether a westward shift will occur will probably have to wait...

actually most models shifted west. couple slightly east..

last 3 images..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=09

If you remove the tropical models, which are useless at the latitude Irene is heading into, it's about half and half.

[njweather]

Any thoughts on the storm's potential impact on the DC Metro area (DC/MD/No. VA)?

The following graphic (4 panel, 96 hrs, Euro/HWRF/NCEP/GFDL) suggests upwards of 45kt for our area...?

http://imageshack.us/f/812/08241200ecmwfgfshwrfgfd.png/

[WindRunner]

Hi guys - it's been a while since I've come around here. Could anyone tell me where the awesome looking NCL-produced maps of ECMWF (and HWRF, GFDL, etc.) data are coming from? It's great that everyone uploads the images to somewhere else first now, but it makes it a little hard to find the source. Since I see several people posting them, I assume it's somewhere relatively public...so anyone care to share? It would be greatly appreciated

[northtxboy]

Hurricane track 1821,,,,,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1821_ ... ck_Map.gif

[KWT]

Track could well be very similar to that, though I'd imagine land interaction would help to weaken Irene a little if it took on that track. Still would probably be a hurricane near Long Island, esp if it managed to stay just offshore.

[micktooth]

Hurricane track 1821,,,,,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1821_ ... ck_Map.gif

That's a nasty track. BTW, how do we "really" know the track that a storm took in 1821? Is it just off of ship reports? How many ships could have been out there in 1821? Sorry, it's just one of those things that always puzzles me.

[shaggy]

I for one am against using the nam to predict tropical features but its synoptic portrayal in the mid lats is of some value. Question is with the nams west shift and more northerly trajectory has it started to grasp the synoptics and will other models follow suit at 18z? Eagerly awaiting the gfs to start.

[Jevo]

18z GFS is running.. should see our first few frames in 15mins or so

[CronkPSU]

it's running already??? that is a half hour early, isn't it?

[WindRunner]

it's running already??? that is a half hour early, isn't it?

Nope, GFS runs start at synoptic hour + 3:20 ish.

So, 1800 UTC starts forecasting around 2120 UTC, even though you won't see anything out of it for another 10-15 minutes.

[Jevo]

18z GFS Initialized



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Jevo]

18z GFS +12

[ozonepete]

Hurricane track 1821,,,,,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1821_ ... ck_Map.gif

That's a nasty track. BTW, how do we "really" know the track that a storm took in 1821? Is it just off of ship reports? How many ships could have been out there in 1821? Sorry, it's just one of those things that always puzzles me.

All of those old tracks are based on extensive research done by hurricane historians who are or were excellent researchers. They pored through libraries, local town archives and military (esp. Navy) records to piece together the tracks. Many of the original colonists were avid weather enthusiasts and had thermometers, barometers and wind vanes and kept extensive records, all the way from the Caribbean islands all the way up to Maine and into Canada. In addition there was so much ship traffic back then that many vessels provided excellent acounts of their (unfortunate) encounters with these storms. So these tracks are actually quite reliable for the most part. Although weaker storms or ones that were violent in only small areas have more suspect tracks, storms like the 1821 hurricane had extensive news articles written about the damage and where the winds came from, so the tracks were quite easy to reconstruct. BTW, in the 1821 hurricane, the damage from Delaware to New England was very extreme - it is considered to have been a category 3. You can read more about these storms in David M. Ludlum's incredible book, Early American hurricanes 1492-1870. I've read it about 20 times.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +24

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +36 Direct pass over Abaco