11 pm advisory and tropical update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Tropical storm Fabian is now located at latitude 15.3 N longitude 40.9 W or about 1475 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. Fabin is moving west at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 50 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Fabian may become the 3rd hurricane of the season sometime late Saturday into Sunday. Fabian has potential to become a strong hurricane over the next 5 days or so north of the Caribbean Islands. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend outward 85 miles from the center of the storm.

Minimum central pressure is now at 1000 millibars or 29.53 inches.

The future track takes Fabian north of the Lesser Antillies. However all interests ther should monitor the progress of Fabian as he has potential to become a hurricane at that time. Eventually the east coast of the United States should monitor Fabian by early next week just in case US landfall is immient.

There is also a tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean Sea tonight, which could flare up into a tropical low and possibly develop over the Gulf Of Mexico on Saturday as it encounters a very favorable environment. All interests along the US Gulf coast should monitor this system for next week as well as possibly two tropical systems could affect the lower 48.

If that wasn't enough, Jimena could have some effects on Hawaii by next week as well. Even the 50th state could see some tropical weather in about 4-5 days.

Lots going on, stay tuned!!!

Jim

[rainstorm]

dont forget the area nw of fabio

[WXBUFFJIM]

The area northwest of Fabian I'm not too impressed with at the moment. We'll keep an eye on that, but I don't think it will have much effect on Fabian at all. Fabian itself looks more healthy than it did earlier today, no doubt about it and if it get very strong north of the Caribbean Islands, it could just create it's own environment, which could result in strong activity for long duration. This is something I strongly reccommend the US east coast should monitor starting next week after labor day for any posible landfall.

However I'm really impresed with Jimena with 60 mph winds. It could have winds of 90-100 mph just south of Hawaii in 5 days. The Hawaiian Islands need to brace for this one as large battering waves and dangerous rip currents could occur. Any track farther north would cause a direct impact on the islands. The current track takes Jimena 60 nautical miles south of Hawaii. That's not alot ladies and gentlemen. Still could see outer rainbands hit the big island by Monday night into Tuesday of next week. Stay tuned.

[Stormchaser16]

Rainstorm........ its under 20KT shear, what ill developed cluster of thunderstorms has ANY chance of developing under 20KT and increasing shear?