ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

The Northeast media will crap themselves if an eye looking like that starts headed up the seaboard!!!

[gatorcane]

Also On its present course ( if unchanged ) would take it across long island and into exuma in the next 6 hours. by which time it would very far off the forecast path.. needs to start turning now not in an hour.. passing west of forecast point now.

Looks like it's just a wobble west though, should wobble back NNW over the next couple of hours. If it doesn't then I would say it will miss the next forecast point to the SW.

[LarryWx]

Also On its present course ( if unchanged ) would take it across long island and into exuma in the next 6 hours. by which time it would very far off the forecast path.. needs to start turning now not in an hour.. passing west of forecast point now.

Regardless, isn't it quite close right now to the forecasted path?

[cheezyWXguy]

JB says norfolk/vab will get 60-80 sustained, 100 gusts

hatteras 120-130 gusts. 100 gusts on jersey shore. 120 possible on long island.

With all due respect to JB, I think his predictions are way high.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually Idk, they sound a bit high but remember at least some of the models still keep this as at least a cat3 as it passes delaware. A cat2 for long island doesnt sound too far out of reach, and that ends up going west near NYC like the euro shows, this would be an insane disaster.

[StarmanHDB]

....I wouldn't rule out a CAT 5 given the storm's evolution today. Cat 4 is almost certain....

DISCLOSURE?

[wxman57]

Something that concerns me about Irene is the pin-hole eye it has. It seems that storms that had these eyes in the past not only intensified quickly, but the day after having that type of eye the storm expanded greatly in size both in EYE and WINDS. A good example was Hurricane Wilma on October 19th, 2005 with its pinhole eye, followed by Wilma with a very big eye on October 20th and 21st as it neared Cancun.

Correct me if I"m wrong, but the reason the storms with the pin hole eyes usually expand so much, is because those pin hole eyes can't hold on for very long..an ERC happens and everything gets expanded outwards as the new larger eye takes hold.

An eyewall replacement cycle is actually underway now. It started earlier today.

[Jevo]

Im going to hate sharing these with you cause its going to bog em down.. but what can I say.. Im a giver.. They arent live streaming.. but its something

Webcams

Calypso - Hope Town, Bahamas (Abaco) facing SSE

http://www.calypsobahamas.com/current_c ... eather.htm

Tilloo Cut (Abaco) Located at the southern end of Elbow Cay, Tilloo Cut is a passage between Elbow Cay and Tilloo Cay that allows boats to travel between the Sea of Abaco and the Atlantic Ocean

http://www.tilloocut.com/Tilloo_Cut/Webcam.html

Rocky Bay (Abaco)

http://www.rockybay.com/

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks wxman57, I thought that was taking place as we speak, not many have commented on it though. I know recon found double wind maxima previously, just figured it was in the process.

[Aric Dunn]

Also On its present course ( if unchanged ) would take it across long island and into exuma in the next 6 hours. by which time it would very far off the forecast path.. needs to start turning now not in an hour.. passing west of forecast point now.

Looks like it's just a wobble west though, should wobble back NNW over the next couple of hours. If it doesn't then I would say it will miss the next forecast point to the SW.

this has been the motion for 3 hours now (two images are not quite 3 that just as far back as my loop was going). ... more nw motion is supposed to be starting now...

[maryellen40]

The Northeast media will crap themselves if an eye looking like that starts headed up the seaboard!!!

Especially if its headed toward NYC. Do you all think we will see Cantore broadcasting in NYC? Plus, how in god's name would they evacuate people?

[CronkPSU]

there is no way it is going NNW right now, it is barely NW the past 6 hours, right on the edge of wnw and nw

[CronkPSU]

The Northeast media will crap themselves if an eye looking like that starts headed up the seaboard!!!

Especially if its headed toward NYC. Do you all think we will see Cantore broadcasting in NYC? Plus, how in god's name would they evacuate people?

to bring some levity...they never get it done in the movies, there are always a ton of people left out in the streets, bridges, subways and tunnels when they try to get everyone out of there

[Weatherboy1]

Given all the modelling that indicates a turn, I'm sure that when I wake up tomorrow, Irene will be firmly heading NNW or N. But it would be nice if that started happening soon. Ridging appears to be extending a bit farther west, as someone noted by posting the CIMSS steering winds. I had expected no TS winds here in NE Palm Beach County, but now not so sure.

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder what kind of effects Irene will have on New Jersey, storm surge wise, rain wise, wind wise and more. We get nor'easters all the time and they pound the coastline but never anything of this significance if Irene does come close to the Jersey shore.

[GTStorm]

if you throw up the 0000Z forecast point...isn't she giong to get there sooner than predicted (almost there now)? Is she moving faster?

[maxintensity]

Something that concerns me about Irene is the pin-hole eye it has. It seems that storms that had these eyes in the past not only intensified quickly, but the day after having that type of eye the storm expanded greatly in size both in EYE and WINDS. A good example was Hurricane Wilma on October 19th, 2005 with its pinhole eye, followed by Wilma with a very big eye on October 20th and 21st as it neared Cancun.

Correct me if I"m wrong, but the reason the storms with the pin hole eyes usually expand so much, is because those pin hole eyes can't hold on for very long..an ERC happens and everything gets expanded outwards as the new larger eye takes hold.

An eyewall replacement cycle is actually underway now. It started earlier today.

The eyewall replacement cycle was was induced about 48 hours ago when the initial double wind maxium occured. I posted about that in the recon discussion thread. The double maximum continues to become more pronounced and all indications are this will be the next rita which continuously underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as it approached US landfall

[gatorcane]

Given all the modelling that indicates a turn, I'm sure that when I wake up tomorrow, Irene will be firmly heading NNW or N. But it would be nice if that started happening soon. Ridging appears to be extending a bit farther west, as someone noted by posting the CIMSS steering winds. I had expected no TS winds here in NE Palm Beach County, but now not so sure.

I wonder if it is pumping up the ridge since Irene is getting so strong? In technical terms, we can look back to Stewart's discussion on how that happens.

BTW, this is an old discussion snippet from NHC from last Mon. at 5AM EST:

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al ... .007.shtml?

[seussianagenda]

If the models continue to verify I will be leaving norfolk, va on friday morning

[micktooth]

Looks like trof might be flattening out a little in KY. The TX death ridge has shifted a little west, I know I'm in CO and it's close to 100 degrees here. This is different than yesterday's trof which easily made it into FL.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

really a scary scenario for the EC...especially people in NYC...they wont know what hit them...