ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the AF data? Also the google graphics?

[jlauderdal]

Not sure the eye is going to pass over Long Island Bahamas... its going to be close thats for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

its bouncing off the island

[maryellen40]

The NHC almost sounds like they don't want the Euro to get mad.

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.

mike bloomberg is the one that is going to be mad about all this....this is going to be a real mind bender the next few days

they would have to start evacuating people tomorrow or Friday?

[CronkPSU]

i am guessing it would take at least 3 full days to evacuate a fully prepared NYC

[Bizzles]

Due to latest EURO run...starting to think about getting some supplies. Central NJ (Mt. Holly)

NHC still has her a ways off the NJ coast but a few of the model runs show a closer brush w/ her and Euro looks to have a direct hit on south Jersey...seeing as August has already been the wettest month on record...ever...ever...there's a real serious potential for a lot of flooding.

On a sad note I know some people won't be prepared but the weather nut in me is really excited, as you can guess we don't get many hurricanes in NJ lol

If she does go 100-200 mi off the coast I guess I'll have to take a trip over to the shore and wave as she churns by.

PS oh and we're supposed to get hit w/ scattered T-storms tomorrow just to soften up the ground a bit

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure the eye is going to pass over Long Island Bahamas... its going to be close thats for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

its bouncing off the island

have to be very careful. if it is going through a eyewall replacement cycle the inner eye will do circles inside the outer eyewall.. have to wait for recon ..

[Canelaw99]

Si, Luis, that's the one!

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

NOAA2

URNT15 KWBC 242123
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 07 20110824
211400 2619N 07824W 5695 04840 0069 +009 -069 036019 020 024 000 00
211430 2617N 07822W 5694 04839 0070 +009 -094 038021 021 025 000 00
211500 2615N 07820W 5697 04837 0077 +005 -077 041021 021 026 000 00
211530 2613N 07819W 5697 04838 0074 +006 -054 041022 022 026 000 00
211600 2611N 07817W 5695 04838 0071 +007 -056 048022 023 028 000 00
211630 2609N 07816W 5696 04837 0068 +008 -051 047022 023 028 000 00
211700 2607N 07814W 5696 04835 0067 +010 -100 050024 025 027 000 00
211730 2605N 07813W 5697 04833 0063 +010 -092 048025 026 027 000 00
211800 2603N 07811W 5698 04829 0058 +011 -067 043023 023 026 000 00
211830 2601N 07810W 5697 04832 0060 +010 -066 047022 024 027 000 00
211900 2559N 07808W 5697 04832 0058 +010 -046 047022 023 026 000 00
211930 2557N 07807W 5697 04829 0056 +011 -061 046022 022 027 000 00
212000 2555N 07805W 5697 04829 0053 +013 -072 050021 022 028 000 00
212030 2553N 07804W 5698 04827 0056 +013 -127 049023 024 027 000 00
212100 2552N 07802W 5697 04829 0062 +012 -160 049024 026 027 000 00
212130 2550N 07800W 5698 04829 0064 +011 -122 047024 025 027 000 00
212200 2548N 07759W 5699 04829 0062 +008 -040 045025 025 /// /// 03
212230 2546N 07757W 5699 04828 0060 +011 -077 043023 023 /// /// 03
212300 2544N 07755W 5700 04826 0055 +011 -048 045024 024 /// /// 03
212330 2543N 07753W 5697 04828 0049 +012 -025 052025 025 /// /// 03

[KWT]

Track still looks like its heading into Long Island, though more on the eastern side of the island still...

[otowntiger]

looks like she may stay east of Long Island (Bahamas)? That would be good for them and good for the accuracy of the forecasted track down the line and hopefully mean that she behaves.

[tolakram]

I'll only be able to do graphics every now and then if someone else wants too. I'll try and post a graphic after every VDM at least.

[artist]

Give me about an hour and then I should be able to do recon for awhile.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[CronkPSU]

it missed Long Island to the east according to the 21:15 frame...then wobbled to the west 21:25 frame...maybe offshore by a few miles

[tolakram]

[Macrocane]

Who wants to post the AF data? Also the google graphics?

Cycloneye I can post the AF data.

[hipshot]

i am guessing it would take at least 3 full days to evacuate a fully prepared NYC

There is NO WAY IN H-LL that NYC could be evacuated in 3 days, maybe 3 weeks but not 3 days. I have already told my kids who live in Brooklyn to keep a very sharp eye on this storm and they, like probably 90% of the population did a big "POO POO, what are supposed to do?" I told them to get in a car and head back to the Catskills where we spent the last week! That ain't going to happen.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah latest sat images show it doing another little loops responding to convection firing.. also microwave shows concentric features of a ERC with the inner eye barely over the southern coast of long island. what we see on vis imagery is the tilting of the mid and upper levels....

[StarmanHDB]

it missed Long Island to the east according to the 21:15 frame

Also appears to have taken a skip to the north in the last few frames (appears being the key word).