ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242258
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 12 20110824
224800 2132N 07134W 3926 07691 0376 -174 -221 210029 030 032 000 03
224830 2133N 07137W 3925 07689 0377 -172 -221 208030 031 029 000 00
224900 2133N 07139W 3927 07689 0377 -171 -209 208030 031 029 000 00
224930 2134N 07142W 3926 07690 0378 -173 -195 208027 028 029 001 00
225000 2134N 07144W 3929 07685 0378 -163 -185 211028 030 028 000 00
225030 2135N 07147W 3927 07692 0378 -168 -200 219032 033 026 001 00
225100 2136N 07149W 3926 07696 0377 -165 -196 222032 034 026 000 00
225130 2136N 07151W 3925 07696 0377 -171 -201 217032 033 026 000 00
225200 2137N 07154W 3923 07695 0377 -169 -214 208031 031 024 000 00
225230 2137N 07156W 3926 07693 0375 -163 -194 220027 027 023 000 00
225300 2138N 07159W 3926 07691 0375 -160 -180 225026 027 024 001 00
225330 2138N 07201W 3926 07692 0374 -160 -189 219026 026 025 000 00
225400 2139N 07204W 3926 07692 0374 -160 -189 219026 027 024 000 00
225430 2139N 07206W 3927 07689 0373 -160 -189 222027 027 023 000 00
225500 2140N 07209W 3925 07693 0373 -166 -183 223027 029 021 000 00
225530 2140N 07211W 3926 07692 0374 -170 -216 228028 028 021 000 00
225600 2141N 07214W 3925 07691 0374 -166 -224 224026 028 020 000 00
225630 2141N 07214W 3925 07691 0373 -164 -236 217024 025 021 000 00
225700 2142N 07219W 3926 07688 0374 -167 -226 214025 026 018 000 00
225730 2143N 07221W 3926 07689 0373 -158 -188 222024 025 018 000 00
$$
;

[hurricaneCW]

I don't anyone up here really knows what to do because we've never really been in this situation. Also the structures, the trees, and everything is not hurricane proof like down in Florida and the gulf coast so we are very vulnerable. The worst case right now would be a drive north to SE NJ and into that little corner where NJ/NYC meet, huge surge potential that hopefully does not verify.

[Dave]

[TheBurn]

VIS/IR and Last VIS shot before sunset...

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 242305
XXAA 74234 99216 70716 08011 99007 27413 13525 00058 27012 14029
92746 22614 16528 85480 18603 19030 70122 10205 18031 50585 05760
18530 40757 15947 20532 88999 77999
31313 09608 82248
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 05
62626 SPL 2164N07164W 2259 MBL WND 14033 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18031
006393 WL150 14030 084 REL 2155N07164W 224855 SPG 2164N07164W 225
902 =
XXBB 74238 99216 70716 08011 00007 27413 11850 18603 22794 14211
33683 09206 44677 09234 55644 07043 66638 06857 77579 01057 88565
00521 99525 03725 11502 05560 22490 06360 33475 07149 44452 09359
55440 10562 66393 17140
21212 00007 13525 11978 14037 22964 15036 33930 16526 44924 16528
55901 17525 66864 19032 77850 19030 88803 19041 99724 19035 11667
17031 22537 17035 33511 17535 44457 22027 55393 20531
31313 09608 82248
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 05
62626 SPL 2164N07164W 2259 MBL WND 14033 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18031
006393 WL150 14030 084 REL 2155N07164W 224855 SPG 2164N07164W 225
902 =
;

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 23:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 05

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 21.6N 71.6W
Location: 31 miles (50 km) to the WNW (288°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F) 135° (from the SE) 25 knots (29 mph)
1000mb 58m (190 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 140° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph)
925mb 746m (2,448 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 165° (from the SSE) 28 knots (32 mph)
850mb 1,480m (4,856 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 18.3°C (64.9°F) 190° (from the S) 30 knots (35 mph)
700mb 3,122m (10,243 ft) 10.2°C (50.4°F) 9.7°C (49.5°F) 180° (from the S) 31 knots (36 mph)
500mb 5,850m (19,193 ft) -5.7°C (21.7°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F) 185° (from the S) 30 knots (35 mph)
400mb 7,570m (24,836 ft) -15.9°C (3.4°F) -20.6°C (-5.1°F) 205° (from the SSW) 32 knots (37 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 21.64N 71.64W
Splash Time: 22:59Z

Release Location: 21.55N 71.64W View map)
Release Time: 22:48:55Z

Splash Location: 21.64N 71.64W (
Splash Time: 22:59:02Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 33 knots (38 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 31 knots (36 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 393mb to 1006mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 30 knots (35 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1007mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F)
850mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) 18.3°C (64.9°F)
794mb 14.2°C (57.6°F) 13.1°C (55.6°F)
683mb 9.2°C (48.6°F) 8.6°C (47.5°F)
677mb 9.2°C (48.6°F) 5.8°C (42.4°F)
644mb 7.0°C (44.6°F) 2.7°C (36.9°F)
638mb 6.8°C (44.2°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F)
579mb 1.0°C (33.8°F) Approximately -6°C (21°F)
565mb -0.5°C (31.1°F) -2.6°C (27.3°F)
525mb -3.7°C (25.3°F) -6.2°C (20.8°F)
502mb -5.5°C (22.1°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F)
490mb -6.3°C (20.7°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F)
475mb -7.1°C (19.2°F) -12.0°C (10.4°F)
452mb -9.3°C (15.3°F) Approximately -18°C (-0°F)
440mb -10.5°C (13.1°F) Approximately -22°C (-8°F)
393mb -17.1°C (1.2°F) -21.1°C (-6.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (Surface) 135° (from the SE) 25 knots (29 mph)
978mb 140° (from the SE) 37 knots (43 mph)
964mb 150° (from the SSE) 36 knots (41 mph)
930mb 165° (from the SSE) 26 knots (30 mph)
924mb 165° (from the SSE) 28 knots (32 mph)
901mb 175° (from the S) 25 knots (29 mph)
864mb 190° (from the S) 32 knots (37 mph)
850mb 190° (from the S) 30 knots (35 mph)
803mb 190° (from the S) 41 knots (47 mph)
724mb 190° (from the S) 35 knots (40 mph)
667mb 170° (from the S) 31 knots (36 mph)
537mb 170° (from the S) 35 knots (40 mph)
511mb 175° (from the S) 35 knots (40 mph)
457mb 220° (from the SW) 27 knots (31 mph)
393mb 205° (from the SSW) 31 knots (36 mph)


---



[Nimbus]

Does look like an eyewall replacement cycle.

[MGC]

Yea, something is going on with Irene. The hurricane don't look very good right now....perhaps the EWRC or some dry air mixing into the circulation. If it is an EWRC I wonder how large the eye will become? Wilma went from a 2-3 mile eye to 40 miles if I remember correctly.....MGC

[Bizzles]

that convection to the NE of her is

who's thinking she's gonna be a big girl once she gets to the Florida/Alabama border...lots of warm(ish) water there. Guess the trough is gonna dictate her growth?

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242307
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 13 20110824
225800 2143N 07224W 3925 07687 0370 -158 -179 227024 025 019 000 00
225830 2144N 07226W 3926 07682 0370 -160 -180 226026 027 030 000 03
225900 2144N 07229W 3926 07687 0373 -158 -185 230029 031 027 000 00
225930 2145N 07231W 3926 07689 0374 -153 -185 234029 032 030 001 00
230000 2145N 07234W 3934 07679 0374 -156 -200 220030 031 031 000 00
230030 2146N 07236W 4088 07384 0357 -136 -214 212029 029 031 000 03
230100 2146N 07238W 4247 07092 0334 -121 -184 209031 033 031 000 00
230130 2147N 07241W 4405 06810 0313 -107 -147 213036 037 031 000 00
230200 2147N 07243W 4561 06530 0286 -088 -144 214038 039 030 000 00
230230 2148N 07245W 4727 06260 0272 -073 -113 211039 039 031 000 00
230300 2148N 07248W 4910 05959 0254 -061 -088 209040 040 030 001 00
230330 2149N 07250W 5088 05676 0235 -049 -084 206041 042 030 001 00
230400 2150N 07252W 5280 05381 0214 -038 -081 199042 043 031 000 00
230430 2151N 07254W 5497 05065 0194 -023 -030 198042 042 031 001 00
230500 2152N 07256W 5700 04773 0019 -005 -012 194045 047 032 001 00
230530 2153N 07258W 5923 04443 0011 +011 +006 190048 049 033 000 00
230600 2154N 07300W 6137 04184 0069 +009 //// 187047 047 035 003 01
230630 2155N 07303W 6350 03902 //// +018 //// 185049 051 037 005 01
230700 2156N 07305W 6531 03674 //// +031 //// 185050 051 038 007 01
230730 2157N 07307W 6665 03507 //// +036 //// 183050 051 037 014 01
$$
;

[cpdaman]

don't get me wrong i am under no impression the hurricane is landfalling florida lol

however when you take into account 4 things ..i am sorta shocked there is no tropcal storm watch/warning up yet for e coast florida from say miami to daytona

when you take into acct.


1. EWRC going on .... = usually expansion of winds

2. the snippet from NHC earlier disco from stewart i believe that mentioned the ridge possibly holding on a bit longer than models forecast...which would = a bit further west movement of irene

3. the potential intensity of irene as she makes her closest pass to FL

4. the tendency for NHC to be "overly cautious" in forecasts so people are better "safe then sorry" ready for rough conditions


why not issue a tropical storm watch this evening at 8pm ...how could this hurt?

[ozonepete]

Wouldn't be worried so much for NYC as Long Island (NY) and Boston. IF NYC gets hit, They'll have plenty of warning from us in NJ.

I'm personally concerned (if it makes landfall in Long Island) for everyone in Conn & RI that may be on the eastern side of her. A brush 50-100 mi off the coast should be much more mild than being hit by the eastern side of the storm...let alone a direct cat 2 hit on a west to east island where storm surge could be a very bad problem.

IMO.

I'm sure you didn't mean not to worry about NYC and Boston. I can't speak for Boston, but here in NYC, for one examle, almost none of the people who live down along the ocean in Brooklyn or Queens understand the severity of this type of storm and will not evacuate. I'm just glad it will be on a Sunday if it happens because if it were a workday a LOTof these workaholic people would ignore the warnings and try to go to work anyway. I'm also very worried about all of the glass in those skyscapers.

[Dave]

[cpdaman]

that convection to the NE of her is

who's thinking she's gonna be a big girl once she gets to the Florida/Alabama border...lots of warm(ish) water there. Guess the trough is gonna dictate her growth?

she gonna be a very big girl BEFORE that...it will happen tonite IMO it is now...just sit back and watch in awe...

first squalls hittin palm beach coast now

[ozonepete]

Could be the eyewall replacement cycle I was looking for. Now lets see if that changes the track any.

Yes. The NHC said at 5PM that CIMSS calculated a pretty high chance of an ERC within the next 24-48 hours. But most historical data indicates ERCs don't change the track outside of wobbles.

[CronkPSU]

I think to say she looks bad or ragged is an overstatement, most storms never come close to this kind of structure and power...just doesn't look as good as it did earlier..or will later

[Bizzles]

Wouldn't be worried so much for NYC as Long Island (NY) and Boston. IF NYC gets hit, They'll have plenty of warning from us in NJ.

I'm personally concerned (if it makes landfall in Long Island) for everyone in Conn & RI that may be on the eastern side of her. A brush 50-100 mi off the coast should be much more mild than being hit by the eastern side of the storm...let alone a direct cat 2 hit on a west to east island where storm surge could be a very bad problem.

IMO.

I'm sure you didn't mean not to worry about NYC and Boston. I can't speak for Boston, but here in NYC, for one examle, almost none of the people who live down along the ocean in Brooklyn or Queens understand the severity of this type of storm and will not evacuate. I'm just glad it will be on a Sunday if it happens because if it were a workday a LOTof these workaholic people would ignore the warnings and try to go to work anyway. I'm also very worried about all of the glass in those skyscapers.

Not at all. I say definitely worry about both, however NYC would have a semi benefit from hearing from NJ about the storm...all be it only a few hours ahead of time...my point was if it stays off the coast of NJ and hits either eastern LI or Conn... IMO they won't heed the warning as much as they should. and with both of those areas being very close to sea level the storm surge would be a serious issue.

[SNOW_JOKE]

CAT4 the NHC had Irene at crossing into the Northern part of the Bahamas by now, so a eyewall replacement cycle from that burst of convection is more than likely to be occurring currently.

[CronkPSU]

I remember losing power for a week in the poconos when Gloria came through, powerful enough when you are a kid but i remember loving it cause we got a few days off of school and i didn't even need to shovel snow for it!

[Bizzles]

I think to say she looks bad or ragged is an overstatement, most storms never come close to this kind of structure and power...just doesn't look as good as it did earlier..or will later

so good as in beautiful storm or good as in won't be as dangerous?

[seahawkjd]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.