ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cpdaman]

looks like more north wobbles this eve.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242337
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 16 20110824
232800 2240N 07410W 6967 03051 9940 +085 //// 212069 070 048 000 05
232830 2241N 07411W 6967 03037 9926 +087 //// 211069 070 049 000 05
232900 2242N 07413W 6963 03037 9924 +084 //// 212069 070 055 000 05
232930 2243N 07414W 6964 03031 //// +081 //// 211068 069 /// /// 05
233000 2245N 07415W 6969 03020 9897 +090 //// 211069 070 /// /// 05
233030 2246N 07417W 6965 02998 9888 +087 //// 212069 070 /// /// 05
233100 2247N 07418W 6964 03015 9891 +084 //// 212071 072 /// /// 05
233130 2248N 07420W 6966 02996 9893 +086 //// 213071 072 /// /// 05
233200 2250N 07421W 6967 03002 9900 +075 //// 210073 074 072 010 05
233230 2251N 07422W 6966 03004 9898 +075 //// 208076 076 069 006 01
233300 2252N 07424W 6967 02995 //// +069 //// 209080 081 060 012 01
233330 2254N 07425W 6962 02991 //// +072 //// 213085 088 061 017 01
233400 2255N 07427W 6988 02953 //// +067 //// 213084 085 062 021 01
233430 2256N 07428W 6960 02975 //// +070 //// 214083 084 065 017 01
233500 2257N 07429W 6963 02969 //// +084 //// 220077 080 067 015 01
233530 2258N 07431W 6967 02959 //// +090 //// 217075 076 066 004 01
233600 2300N 07432W 6963 02958 9805 +109 //// 219075 076 067 004 01
233630 2301N 07433W 6967 02949 9789 +117 +110 219076 078 065 003 00
233700 2302N 07435W 6963 02945 9772 +123 +114 222074 076 065 002 00
233730 2303N 07436W 6967 02933 9767 +120 //// 227070 072 064 000 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Looks as though its still on that same heading that it has been on all day.. still no turn.. hmmm was just that inner eyewall rotating around..

[Dave]

[Nimbus]

="Only way Irene track would shift back west is if the first trough split & she pumped up ridging between her & the 2nd trough."

What if any condition currently in play could or would allow this system to move enough west to effect Ga or SC?
HUGO repeat fears are high in SC. I want a realistic reason why there should be any fear of this happening again or a reason to calm those fears with logical balanced reason why it is no threat or odds are against any land fall in Ga or SC.

None of the models show a track making landfall west of North Carolina. The swirl in the eastern gulf cut off from the first trough but probably won't be a player other than to help ventilate Irene. You would get some advance warning if ridging started to build more than modeled. It would have to be more than just a bulge in an isobar, typically you see a stall in forward motion before a system takes on a new direction.

[cpdaman]

Looks as though its still on that same heading that it has been on all day.. still no turn.. hmmm was just that inner eyewall rotating around..

aric can u send me a link of the loop or loops your lookin at please....i'm just chillin at library and have a few more hours of "research" to do at Florida atlantic university (boca).

seemed the overall motion has gone more nw smoothing out the inner eyewall rotations on the loops i'm watchin.

also i was wondering about the lil ull seeming sinking SW'ward (or so) in the E gulf as this moves this way i was wonderin if the return flow around it may help irene drift closer to N. central florida friday for a time

[ozonepete]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

That is very irresponsible to say! The latest NHC track does NOT take it east of Hatteras. It takes it right over it as far as I can see. What is he talking about?!

[FireRat]

Looks as though its still on that same heading that it has been on all day.. still no turn.. hmmm was just that inner eyewall rotating around..

Hey Aric, do you have way to post us the latest steering flow pattern to see what's exactly going on now with the steering flow? I'd love to have more info on that if possible. Thanks.

[Bocadude85]

Looks as though its still on that same heading that it has been on all day.. still no turn.. hmmm was just that inner eyewall rotating around..

Seems to have a more northerly componet now then it did earlier today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242347
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 17 20110824
233800 2304N 07437W 6970 02924 9756 +120 //// 223066 066 063 001 05
233830 2306N 07439W 6956 02928 9742 +123 //// 216065 068 060 001 01
233900 2307N 07440W 6965 02906 9718 +134 +120 213063 064 059 001 00
233930 2308N 07441W 6969 02896 9703 +140 +121 217065 065 057 001 03
234000 2309N 07443W 6967 02889 9687 +144 +120 221066 068 057 001 00
234030 2310N 07444W 6971 02867 9686 +134 +128 222068 069 057 001 00
234100 2311N 07446W 6968 02864 9671 +137 +126 224070 071 056 002 03
234130 2313N 07447W 6967 02848 9659 +137 +120 224074 075 057 002 00
234200 2314N 07448W 6969 02833 9645 +137 +100 222074 076 058 001 00
234230 2315N 07450W 6960 02827 9627 +140 +088 222077 078 060 003 03
234300 2316N 07451W 6966 02803 9603 +144 +101 223076 078 064 011 00
234330 2317N 07452W 6967 02778 9588 +121 //// 224067 068 066 014 01
234400 2318N 07454W 6973 02757 9567 +133 //// 224056 061 067 010 05
234430 2319N 07455W 6966 02748 9542 +141 +136 225042 047 052 004 03
234500 2321N 07457W 6967 02733 9526 +144 +131 216030 033 042 003 00
234530 2322N 07458W 6974 02719 9527 +137 +132 214015 021 034 003 03
234600 2323N 07500W 6967 02726 9518 +145 +128 282003 006 024 001 03
234630 2324N 07501W 6969 02723 9520 +143 +126 359007 009 023 000 00
234700 2325N 07503W 6975 02720 9526 +141 +128 006013 016 025 001 03
234730 2326N 07505W 6962 02736 9521 +148 +127 011021 025 026 002 00
$$
;

[angelwing]

I had subbed to this thread, finally got a chance to look and its way ahead, can anyone give me an idea when and if it will hit Ft Dix? I was planning to take Monday off anyway but it may be moot at this point, thanks!

[Dave]

[tgenius]

For being as close to Miami as it is right now, I'm not seeing much in the name of feeder bands dropping much rain here yet.. will this change at some point?

[cpdaman]

steering flow

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Bizzles]

I had subbed to this thread, finally got a chance to look and its way ahead, can anyone give me an idea when and if it will hit Ft Dix? I was planning to take Monday off anyway but it may be moot at this point, thanks!

I live 2 minutes from Ft. Dix, or Grand Super Base Dix Mc Lakehurst or whatever they want to call it this month...i'lll be up on this with ya.

[Fyzn94]

8 pm edt.....no change in intensity. This is making me really tense...

[sandboxpirate]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

In regards to flooding along the rivers and sounds in Eastern NC....I can't upload the graphic but we received a SLOSH model from NOAA in a briefing at work today and worst case flooding at high tide with a CAT 3 moving NE @ 15 showed up to 6 feet of water backup in the neuse around New Bern, and 8 feet in the pamlico sound around Washington. My advice is listen to the locals they know the area....I have lived in Eastern NC all my life and the rivers almost always back up....be prepared this is a fluid situation don't underestimate better safe than sorry.

[Tstormwatcher]

According to TWC, Irene is undergoing an eyewall replacement. I have a feeling that the tracks will edge westward for the next 24 to 36 hours unless she turns more northward by tomorrow afternoon.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING BETWEEN RUM CAY AND LONG
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND RUM CAY
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
IRENE.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. AN
AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969.1 MB...28.62 INCHES AT 700 PM EDT...2300
UTC...AS THE EYE PASSED NEAR THE STATION.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...REACHING HURRICANE FORCE BY
THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cpdaman]

interested in seeing the new 00utc steering flow that comes out soon

ridge was building in at higher steering levels (i.e levels that steer stronger storms)

i.e 250-850 & 200-700 levels