ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[kamqercam]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

That is very irresponsible to say! The latest NHC track does NOT take it east of Hatteras. It takes it right over it as far as I can see. What is he talking about?!

Maybe you are taking the time that this was wrote up out of context. When this was put together the forecast track may have been different than now.. It's like reading that article two days from now and saying wtf is he talking about. Maybe a time stamp would have been a good idea for that message. I'd personally like to know when he said that as well. I wouldn't be surprised if fruity Skip wasn't talking out his arse either.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242357
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 18 20110824
234800 2327N 07506W 6965 02739 9530 +147 +130 012033 040 033 000 03
234830 2328N 07507W 6963 02751 9529 +156 +115 016042 043 /// /// 03
234900 2329N 07505W 6974 02720 9507 +158 +117 010028 037 /// /// 03
234930 2328N 07503W 6960 02735 9518 +144 +122 017011 014 /// /// 03
235000 2327N 07502W 6972 02717 9520 +138 +129 083004 006 020 000 03
235030 2327N 07500W 6962 02728 9520 +135 +128 156008 010 019 001 00
235100 2326N 07458W 6967 02722 9526 +132 +131 180015 019 024 001 00
235130 2325N 07456W 6964 02737 9526 +141 +127 182023 024 /// /// 03
235200 2324N 07457W 6969 02724 9522 +143 +126 185021 025 /// /// 03
235230 2324N 07459W 6970 02728 9525 +141 +123 183010 014 021 001 03
235300 2325N 07500W 6967 02722 9523 +137 +125 160005 007 023 000 00
235330 2327N 07502W 6967 02725 9520 +140 +126 105004 005 020 001 00
235400 2328N 07503W 6964 02723 9509 +149 +117 082008 011 019 000 00
235430 2329N 07505W 6961 02725 9502 +155 +114 062022 028 023 001 00
235500 2331N 07506W 6970 02717 9499 +162 +129 046033 039 038 002 00
235530 2332N 07507W 6974 02726 9521 +154 +133 042051 057 054 002 03
235600 2333N 07509W 6959 02763 9536 +156 +130 045067 070 062 001 00
235630 2334N 07510W 6966 02779 9563 +155 +124 048071 072 063 002 00
235700 2336N 07511W 6966 02799 9602 +136 +131 051069 070 063 000 03
235730 2337N 07513W 6971 02808 9628 +130 //// 052070 072 062 006 05
$$
;

[NC George]

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

When a hurricane approaches, the winds drive all the water in the Pamlico Sound upstream (west) which tends to flood New Bern and Washington because both are situated where the waterway transitions from river to sound, so the water piles up there because it's hard to make it any further upstream. I don't know the exact areas that flood, however I'm guessing Front street would be pretty high on the list. Check out the following link:

http://books.google.com/books?id=ja5_Zr ... ng&f=false

After the hurricane passes, the winds shift and all this water surges back towards the islands on the Outer Banks, this surge is frequently what causes new inlets to form, and is also a major cause of flooding behind the dunes on the Outer Banks.

[Macrocane]

Who wants to post the observations from Air Force plane? I have to take a break.

[seahawkjd]

I looked and the time stamp seems to be 4:36. I was more wondering though about the NW at 75 leading to shifts west in the track. 8pm is 75W exactly still moving NW.

[Dave]

[NC George]

Just heard all visitors must leave Dare County (the bulk of the Outer Banks) tomorrow morning.

[FireRat]

steering flow

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

thanks man

[seahawkjd]

Is it just me or does that show the ridge building in even more?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

that steering flow looks pretty ominous for SC/NC border. any one care to explain how it moves around that flow on the east side of it to turn N or NNE?

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250007
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 19 20110824
235800 2338N 07514W 6962 02838 9645 +133 +116 052074 076 063 002 03
235830 2339N 07515W 6970 02840 9661 +133 +114 054075 077 062 000 03
235900 2341N 07517W 6967 02859 9671 +139 +102 056070 071 /// /// 03
235930 2342N 07518W 6963 02878 9679 +142 +098 057066 067 068 000 03
000000 2343N 07520W 6976 02875 9704 +133 +103 057067 067 066 000 00
000030 2345N 07521W 6959 02903 9710 +138 +097 055065 067 067 001 03
000100 2346N 07522W 6970 02900 9725 +132 +098 056065 066 067 003 00
000130 2347N 07524W 6966 02908 9739 +124 +114 057063 065 073 003 03
000200 2348N 07525W 6965 02918 9755 +118 +116 054063 064 072 005 00
000230 2350N 07526W 6974 02917 9771 +109 //// 055062 063 076 007 01
000300 2351N 07528W 6960 02940 //// +099 //// 066068 073 074 015 01
000330 2352N 07529W 6955 02956 //// +076 //// 065093 099 072 019 01
000400 2354N 07531W 6972 02948 //// +072 //// 058090 091 069 022 01
000430 2355N 07532W 6968 02963 //// +069 //// 057093 094 063 015 01
000500 2356N 07533W 6969 02974 //// +074 //// 055093 094 063 007 01
000530 2358N 07535W 6965 02984 9855 +095 +090 055088 090 062 006 00
000600 2359N 07536W 6969 02991 9863 +096 +084 057087 088 059 006 00
000630 2400N 07537W 6970 02995 9885 +079 //// 056086 086 057 008 05
000700 2401N 07539W 6967 03004 //// +079 //// 052088 089 058 019 05
000730 2403N 07540W 6963 03012 //// +081 //// 055083 086 057 019 01
$$
;

[cpdaman]

conditions at great exuma 29.07 pressure
weather bug station found here
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IGREATEX4


now some will consider this out there but i want to mention it...and it is speculation only... i do want to say if we had any kind of technology that was being worked on to potentially weaken hurricanes (nah impossible right lol) i think this would be a great candidate to use it on. right now the us economy is teetering toward another recession and a strom like this could effect alot of the major NE east coast cities with power outages and disruption....if she should for some reason weaken and not amount to much over the next day or two....i'm just sayin...not bettin on it....but it would be a cost effective measure to take. it is pretty much a national security issue and wouldn't be relayed to public if it was possible. and see what the DIRECTOR of the dept. of homeland security had to say over 3 Years ago " Now, the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate, which helps agencies from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, is expressing an interest in the science of hurricane modification. "It sounds kind of crazy and science fiction-ish, but it's really the direction we need to go in," Chris Doyle, head of DHS's science and technology research division, told a conference of the American Meteorological Society last month" http://www.usnews.com/news/national/art ... hurricanes



mods can delete i don't care

[drezee]

Double eyewall is very apparent in the recon data. Second Max had 99kt winds.

[artist]

Who wants to post the observations from Air Force plane? I have to take a break.

I can. Just the obs or images too?

[Dave]

[Emmett_Brown]

Hard to judge by IR, but she appears to be going more steadily on a pure NW heading now. Of course, it is hard to tell with the eye wall replacement that appears to be underway, which is why recon is the only true measure. VDMs will tell us.

[Cranica]

She just keeps getting bigger, 230 mile TS radius and counting - for comparison, this is the same size as Katrina, although obviously with much lower max winds. With the EWRC underway, she looks to be puffing out even further, too.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: that steering flow looks pretty ominous for SC/NC border. any one care to explain how it moves around that flow on the east side of it to turn N or NNE?

That image is a static picture of the current flow, not a forecast of 24 or 48 hours from now. That big trof over the great lakes is digging southward, which will mean the high in the Atlantic will be retreating eastward in the next 24-48 hrs.

[Macrocane]

I can. Just the obs or images too?

Just the obs, unless Dave wants a break too, he is posting the graphics. Thanks artist

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250017
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 20 20110825
000800 2404N 07541W 6967 03012 //// +079 //// 058081 084 059 024 01
000830 2405N 07543W 6962 03027 //// +077 //// 063077 078 058 014 01
000900 2406N 07544W 6976 03013 //// +080 //// 065077 078 056 011 01
000930 2408N 07546W 6964 03030 //// +081 //// 068079 079 054 011 01
001000 2409N 07547W 6970 03032 9912 +095 //// 067077 081 054 005 01
001030 2411N 07549W 6967 03044 9914 +099 //// 067077 079 051 003 01
001100 2412N 07550W 6967 03043 9927 +093 +092 066074 075 049 002 00
001130 2413N 07552W 6970 03047 9936 +090 //// 063068 071 049 002 01
001200 2415N 07553W 6966 03053 9938 +092 +086 064063 063 050 004 00
001230 2416N 07554W 6967 03058 9947 +085 //// 067064 065 049 005 01
001300 2417N 07556W 6966 03057 9950 +079 //// 068068 072 050 008 01
001330 2419N 07557W 6979 03049 9949 +084 //// 067066 069 050 007 01
001400 2420N 07559W 6963 03068 9960 +082 //// 066066 067 050 006 01
001430 2421N 07600W 6970 03068 //// +077 //// 065067 069 050 007 01
001500 2423N 07602W 6967 03072 //// +070 //// 064068 070 048 009 01
001530 2424N 07603W 6965 03077 9972 +078 //// 063066 067 048 006 01
001600 2425N 07605W 6967 03080 //// +076 //// 067072 075 048 008 01
001630 2427N 07606W 6968 03086 //// +074 //// 063067 073 048 005 01
001700 2428N 07608W 6964 03088 9988 +077 //// 063057 058 047 006 01
001730 2429N 07609W 6970 03086 9990 +083 //// 060058 059 046 007 01
$$