ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250157
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 30 20110825
014800 2424N 07428W 6970 03059 //// +066 //// 144081 084 060 011 01
014830 2425N 07427W 6970 03067 //// +061 //// 135072 074 060 011 01
014900 2427N 07425W 6963 03074 //// +064 //// 133070 071 058 011 01
014930 2428N 07424W 6966 03077 //// +070 //// 133071 071 058 010 01
015000 2429N 07423W 6969 03075 9989 +074 //// 136072 073 058 011 01
015030 2430N 07421W 6968 03081 9987 +078 //// 138073 074 057 011 01
015100 2431N 07420W 6964 03087 9995 +075 //// 138073 073 056 012 01
015130 2432N 07419W 6967 03086 9994 +076 //// 137074 075 056 008 01
015200 2434N 07417W 6967 03094 9996 +079 //// 138075 075 055 008 01
015230 2435N 07416W 6969 03091 9997 +081 //// 138076 076 049 011 01
015300 2436N 07415W 6967 03097 9996 +083 //// 138074 074 051 009 01
015330 2437N 07413W 6970 03096 0001 +083 //// 137074 075 052 006 05
015400 2438N 07412W 6963 03106 0001 +084 //// 137074 075 053 005 01
015430 2439N 07411W 6971 03099 0004 +086 +080 132073 075 050 004 00
015500 2440N 07409W 6967 03105 0007 +085 +075 130076 077 050 003 00
015530 2442N 07408W 6965 03112 0005 +089 +071 133075 077 049 002 00
015600 2443N 07407W 6970 03108 9998 +095 +073 133073 074 048 002 00
015630 2444N 07405W 6967 03113 0002 +096 +072 132067 070 046 004 03
015700 2446N 07405W 6967 03115 0008 +092 +076 132068 069 /// /// 03
015730 2448N 07406W 6973 03107 0006 +093 +076 132066 067 048 003 00

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Ive seen a few people make common mistakes when interpreting Irene's listed heading.. Below is a diagram of navagational heading and their relative location on a true north compass.. Hope this helps with further tracking of Irene

pinwheel

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Also I trust you guys realize that longitude isn't a simple 69 miles per degree. It decreases as you move towards the pole from 69 miles at the equator to 0 at the poles. At 25* its about 62 miles per degree longitude. Most calculators online know this I hope.

[wx4tv]

I will be racing home from NYC tomorrow PM to the OBX to button up, get my wife and kids to higher ground and get back to Virginia Beach to cover Irene. This will be #200 for me. Certainly has the capability to become the most memorable.

I will do my best to post nowcasts from Virginia Beach as she approaches.

Will they let you on the island that late tomorrow? Be careful!

I live there and I am a member of the press. I'll get in.

[Dave]

Thanks Artist...I'll be back in about 30 mins or so.

[Stephanie]

I will be racing home from NYC tomorrow PM to the OBX to button up, get my wife and kids to higher ground and get back to Virginia Beach to cover Irene. This will be #200 for me. Certainly has the capability to become the most memorable.

I will do my best to post nowcasts from Virginia Beach as she approaches.

Will they let you on the island that late tomorrow? Be careful!

I live there and I am a member of the press. I'll get in.

Good! Well, be careful, never the less!

[CronkPSU]

good luck, keep the family safe and can't wait to hear about the experience after it is all over! #200??? that is amazing!

[artist]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi ... opsub=Find

DW4809 is Nassau, CW3767 is north end of Eleuthra.

[artist]

*

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/01:28:30Z
B. 23 deg 37 min N
075 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2834 m
D. 57 kt
E. 223 deg 16 nm
F. 319 deg 75 kt
G. 224 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 950 mb
I. 10 C / 3044 m
J. 15 C / 3047 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN W-SE
M. CO14-64
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 222 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
Corrected Vortex -

000
URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/01:28:40Z
B. 23 deg 37 min N
075 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 57 kt
E. 223 deg 16 nm
F. 319 deg 75 kt
G. 224 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 954 mb
I. 10 C / 3044 m
J. 15 C / 3047 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN W-SE
M. CO14-64
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 11 CCB
MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 222 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[MGC]

Still looks to be on a NW heading to me....looks like an EWRC is in process.....MGC

[CronkPSU]

vortex says the eye is OPEN W-SE

also extrap 950

[drezee]

000
C. 700 mb 2834 m;

This has to be wrong...maybe 2634?

They corrected it...

C. 700 mb 2665 m

[artist]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 02:03Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 1:28:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°37'N 75°18'W (23.6167N 75.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,834m (9,298ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 319° at 75kts (From the NW at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the west to the southeast
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:03:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:41:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (222°) from the flight level center

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW is showing the dry-slot that was to the west and south earlier today dissipating.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Irene is now drawing in high theta-e air from the GOM and west Carib along with WISHE from the high OHC water under her.

Anti-cyclone appears to also be closing in.

http://64.19.142.14/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The new eyewall has begun to fire a large hot-tower.

http://64.19.142.14/www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/precip/geo_blended/20110825.0145.goes13.rain.nexsat_Caribbean.0.jpg

All indications to me looks like Irene will really bomb once the EWRC completes.

She'll be a monster.

[ConvergenceZone]

New England is Safe!!
How do I know? click on the below link and scroll about 1/2 way down the page and see if you can solve the riddle as to why New England is safe from Irene.....

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurrican ... 2011-05-31

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250207
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 31 20110825
015800 2450N 07408W 6963 03118 0008 +093 +073 134066 067 047 003 00
015830 2451N 07409W 6968 03117 0005 +096 +070 132067 068 048 003 00
015900 2453N 07410W 6970 03114 0009 +094 +069 129067 068 049 002 00
015930 2455N 07412W 6970 03113 0020 +085 +075 128068 069 048 004 00
020000 2457N 07413W 6970 03113 0019 +085 +070 128068 069 046 004 00
020030 2457N 07413W 6970 03113 0010 +094 +062 130066 066 043 004 00
020100 2501N 07417W 6961 03128 0017 +091 +064 132067 069 /// /// 03
020130 2502N 07419W 6967 03116 0016 +088 +065 132070 070 046 006 03
020200 2503N 07421W 6967 03115 0014 +090 +067 130072 073 045 005 00
020230 2505N 07423W 6971 03117 0017 +089 +070 129071 071 044 005 03
020300 2505N 07425W 6968 03116 0013 +090 +067 128071 071 044 006 03
020330 2506N 07428W 6967 03116 0008 +091 +063 126072 072 045 003 00
020400 2506N 07430W 6967 03115 0011 +090 +063 125071 071 046 003 00
020430 2506N 07433W 6968 03112 0015 +086 +066 124071 071 047 001 00
020500 2506N 07435W 6967 03113 0021 +080 +072 123072 073 046 001 00
020530 2506N 07438W 6967 03109 0019 +080 +078 124072 073 047 003 00
020600 2506N 07440W 6967 03109 0014 +082 +082 124070 070 048 002 00
020630 2506N 07443W 6966 03108 0011 +083 +083 123071 072 050 002 00
020700 2506N 07445W 6968 03108 0020 +076 //// 120071 071 051 002 01
020730 2506N 07448W 6968 03106 0014 +080 //// 120071 071 050 003 01
$$

[CronkPSU]

1:55 frame looks like it is still jogging almost due west...40 minutes straight now

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[Meteorcane]

MIMIC-TPW is showing the dry-slot that was to the west and south earlier today dissipating.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Irene is now drawing in high theta-e air from the GOM and west Carib along with WISHE from the high OHC water under her.

Anti-cyclone appears to also be closing in.

http://64.19.142.14/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The new eyewall has begun to fire a large hot-tower.

http://64.19.142.14/www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/precip/geo_blended/20110825.0145.goes13.rain.nexsat_Caribbean.0.jpg

GC do you have a high interest/ expertise in atmospheric thermodynamics (just curious based on the general theme of your posts)?

All indications to me looks like Irene will really bomb once the EWRC completes.

She'll be a monster.

[artist]