Caribbean - Central America Weather

[abacorun]

SOME LOCAL INFO FOR THE BAHAMAS

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Nassau-Weather-Live/113647095321242

[mf_dolphin]

Thanks for that link. Saying a prayer tonight for all our friends in the Bahamas!

[artist]

Acklns Island - Lovey Bay - 90% of the settlement is gone.
Crooked Island is still receiving 120mph.
According to Bahama's NEMA

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Extra thoughts for those caught in this storm tonight in the Bahamas. Very sad to hear significant damage is beginning.
-WLD

[Janie2006]

According to the Nassau FB page Irene is now crossing Cat Island:

The eye of Irene just made landfall in southern Cat Island. The island is taking a lashing at the moment, along with southern Eleuthera, Long Island and Exuma.

According to the same page Nassau's winds are running at around 40 mph right now. TS strength.

[cycloneye]

Sad news from the Dominican Republic as three people died.

http://207.46.192.232/bv.aspx?ref=Inter ... 48940.html

[cycloneye]

Sad news from the Dominican Republic as 3 people have died.

http://207.46.192.232/bv.aspx?ref=Inter ... 48940.html

[Macrocane]

Sad news from Guatemala as well, heavy rains have been registered in parts of Guatemala this afternoon/tonight and at least 4 deaths are reported:

The torrential rain Wednesday caused overflowing of the River San Juan in Cuilapa, Santa Rosa, flooded homes in the neighborhood of El Calvario and dragged everything that was on its way, according to rescue workers there are four people killed and several injured.
I used microsoft translator: Flash floods kill 4 in Guatemala

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...NARROW MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRI
WITH TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSING TO THE NORTH OF
OF PR BY THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING THE MAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W XPCD TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH NEEDED DRYING XPCD TO TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AS
LOWER PW AND THETAE AIR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA ON SE WINDS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE
WILL NOT HAVE OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OUT OVR WRN/NW PR.
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION WITH NW PR THE MOST FAVORED PLACE DUE TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED FOR FRI AND SAT AS
AREA BECOMES UNDER THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF TUTT LOW.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW IMAGERY IS XPCD TO
ENCOUNTER A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE DAMPENING OUT AS IT REACHES
PR/USVI SAT NIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER THETAE AIR ARE FCST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE PER HIGHER VALUES OF
TOTAL TOTALS AND SWEAT INDICES AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES.

INVEST AL90 IS EXPECTED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TD#10 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS XPCD TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH BEFORE
REACHING 40W. SO LOOKS THAT WILL BE SAFE FROM ANY TROPICAL
CYCLONES FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 25/16Z WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND TJSJ/TJPS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN TSRA...MAINLY OVER TJBQ/TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FALLING RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 17.63 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AT THE LMM
SJU INTL ARPT SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS MAKES AUG 2011 THE WETTEST
MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN 1898. AN
INCREDIBLE 62.17 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR MAKING 2011 THE WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WELL AHEAD
OF 2010 WHEN 52.89 INCHES HAD FALLEN TO THE DATE. IF JUST AVG
RAINFALL WERE TO FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR (24.33
INCHES) THAT WOULD PUT 2011 AS THE THIRD WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.
THE DRIEST FOURTH MONTH PERIOD FROM AUG 25-DEC 31 (129 CALENDAR
DAYS) WAS 1925 WHEN ONLY 12.40 INCHES FELL DURING THAT PERIOD
WHICH WOULD PUT 2011 WITH AT LEAST 74.57 INCHES OF RAIN. SO IT IS
SAFELY TO ASSUME THAT 2011 WILL END UP IN THE TOP TEN WETTEST
YEARS ON RECORD AND LIKELY IN THE TOP FIVE.

THINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY WET ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. AUGUST 2011 REPRESENTS THE SECOND AND THE SIXTH WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT(TIST) AND CHRISTIANSTED
AIRPORT(TISX) WITH 8.41" AND 6.77" RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...2011
REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO A YEAR AT THE CHRISTIANSTED
AIRPORT(TISX) WITH 34.07 INCHES THUS FAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 78 / 40 10 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 30 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

HISPANIOLA HIT HARD BY HURRICANE IRENE
France-Antilles Guadeloupe24.08.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 135927.php


The passage of the hurricane caused the displacement of more than 11,000 people in Dominican Republic, on the night of Monday to Tuesday. Heading West, Irene threatened yesterday evening Cuba and the US Coast.

More than 11,000 people have been displaced in Dominican Republic during the passage of Hurricane Irene on the night of Monday to Tuesday, the coast north of the island of Hispaniola, shared with Haiti. "The balance of internally displaced persons is of 11.157," announced the Dominican (COE) Emergency Operations Centre, stating that more than 2,000 shelters were installed prior to the passage of the hurricane. A previous review announced yesterday morning by Jose Luis German, Deputy Director of the WCC, was State over 7,000 displaced to shelters or to the homes of parents.

The Dominican capital still on maximum alert

Mr. German had specified that no stock of the damage could still not be developed, while the WCC already counted 25 cut localities in the world after water flooding in Eastern and South-East of the country. The capital Santo Domingo and 23 provinces remained on maximum alert (red) yesterday, while the other eight remained on yellow alert. Schools and universities remained closed, according to the COE.

On the North and east coasts, sea level rose one metre and a half and a very strong swell agitated waters. All maritime activities were suspended.Hurricane Irene, now category 2, according to the U.S. national Centre (NHC) hurricanes, formed Saturday in the Caribbean and the winds accompanying it reached up to 160 km/h Monday night.

By another, three provinces in Eastern Cuba - Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas - have been placed by the authorities in "phase of information" to heavy rains and marine flooding, reported local media.The passage of the hurricane on the island of Puerto Rico has left 771 people homeless and caused electricity outages that affected approximately 800,000 people.

-500 people evacuated in Haiti

Heavy rains accompanied by strong winds were reported in the northern regions of Haiti where the first effects of Hurricane Irene caused the evacuation of 500 people.

The authorities have maintained the red alert throughout the country, prohibiting cabotage and domestic in the North while the first floods have been recorded in coastal towns in the departments of this region.

[abacorun]

Still holding on in Marsh Harbour, power is out but internet is still holding for now. getting gusts up to about 60mph, a lot of tree damage. will try post some pics later.

[Stephanie]

Still holding on in Marsh Harbour, power is out but internet is still holding for now. getting gusts up to about 60mph, a lot of tree damage. will try post some pics later.

It's good to hear that you're doing well. Keep checking in with us!

[Macrocane]

River overflows, leaves death and destruction in Cuilapa, Santa Rosa (Guatemala)

Five people have died and six are missing after overflow of the San Juan River which flooded the urban area of Cuilapa, Santa Rosa. There are also evacuated people, damage to vehicles and homes.

Here's the original link in Spanish: http://www.prensalibre.com/santa_rosa/rio-san_juan-cuilapa-santa_rosa_0_542345849.html

And the Translation

[Macrocane]

Yesterday temps in Central America:
-Cooler than normal lows were registered in Belize and El Salvador, warmer than normal in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Cooler than normal highs in most of Guatemala, in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal highs were experienced in the other countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.0°C (48.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.8°C (82.6°F) Coolest since July 17
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.5°C (78.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)

[chrisjslucia]

News from the Bahamas posted on Storm Carib"

Long Island
By Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2011 10:05:01 -0700
Another update from David Sherwin, see below.
--
Gert van Dijken
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Sherwin
Date: Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 10:01 AM
Subject: RE: Irene damage

Gert, I just spoke with my Dad again. He says he just called a neighbour who said that:

-the storm surge in northern Long Island was "a killer". Seawater is still waist-high in our house. The yard's a mess. Damage looks similar to what the area experienced with Lili in '96.
-the road between Stella Maris and points south has been cut off and is impassible due to high water; big trucks can't get though
-local damage in our area (Bunches/Deal's/Deal's Beach) is limited to roof damage/debris/water damage.
-massive damage is rumored to have taken place in southern Long Island. There's widespread reports of flooding and structural damage in Clarence Town.


Take care,

David

[cycloneye]

Here are some videos of what occured in Puerto Rico with the Irene landfall and the very wet tail that followed.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/videos-noticias/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS..HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE LONG RANGE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO GET
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RIO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND SOME
OTHERS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING. ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...DUE TO VERY
SATURATED SOILS...SOME RIVERS REACTED VERY QUICKLY BUT NONE WERE
FLOODED.

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH
GENERALLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING CAME
VERY WET...WITH PW VALUES OF 2.3 INCHES...BUT WINDS WERE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG RANGE...COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST...LIMITING CYCLONGENESIS AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ.
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...BECOMING MAINLY NORTHERLY ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 10 40 10 20
STT 78 89 79 89 / 10 30 10 20

[Terry]

Very recent report from Cherokee Sound on Great Abaco:
"   The eye had passed, and they said the wind was worse now that on the front side. The surge is coming up fast, and there are seas breaking in Cherokee settlement now. The water was already over the government dock during the eye at low tide, and now the wind is pushing water into the sound, along with the rising tides.
The water is already as high as during Floyd."

　

[msbee]

another report from the Bahamas on stormcarib.com

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Sherwin
Date: Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 12:35 PM
Subject: RE: Irene damage


Gert, I have one final update for you:

-Our neighbour estimates that the storm surge where we were was fifteen feet. That's probably not too much of an exaggeration, as our house is about six feet above sea level and water was seen in our house as being shoulder-high.
-One house at the Stella Maris marina suffered severe damage (ie. "gone")
-There's been a report from Cape Santa Maria, at the northern end of the island, of light damage: one house reportedly lost a few shingles, a dock, and their cabana, but little else. Unfortunately, they probably had massive water damage, as the eye passed only about twenty miles away from the Cape at its closest point (we are thirty five miles away from that point).
-Stella Maris has suffered damage. The extent is not clear at this point in time.

Take care,

David

[Stephanie]

Thank you for the reports everyone regarding our friends in the Bahamas.